AI · resolved market
Will Tencent have the top AI model on December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x552c0807e8b239ef4e7ecb9d9e192519ba283acb731c5bd89b6b1cda658a2f8c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $4,063,680
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $548,257
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $4,063,680 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 78 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa445…0286backed Yes | 0c | 198,390$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.39 | 292 | 0.3%1 W · 291 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x115d…f608backed Yes | 0c | 99,087$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.09 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 0c | 92,088$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.09 | 190 | 11.6%22 W · 168 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 66,000$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101 | 149 | 1.3%2 W · 147 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -83.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3006…6f28backed Yes | 0c | 60,864$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.86 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7a…1e53backed Yes | 0c | 54,134$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x121e…7240backed Yes | 0c | 54,123$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2f45…caffbacked Yes | 0c | 54,029$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.03 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb396…6d6cbacked Yes | 0c | 53,762$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcc33…1ab0backed Yes | 0c | 53,440$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe239…7497backed Yes | 0c | 53,371$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc1ee…0818backed Yes | 0c | 53,295$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88bc…68a0backed Yes | 0c | 52,777$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x28f5…7dd4backed Yes | 0c | 52,767$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7975…6957backed Yes | 0c | 52,680$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9de…a180backed Yes | 0c | 52,571$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1a9…fb63backed Yes | 0c | 52,527$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x404b…9c99backed Yes | 0c | 52,447$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7931…3442backed Yes | 0c | 52,321$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea8e…69f2backed Yes | 0c | 52,277$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46cf…05e3backed Yes | 0c | 52,184$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd07…cfa9backed Yes | 0c | 52,067$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b1…dee2backed Yes | 0c | 51,874$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x039a…7e1cbacked Yes | 0c | 51,817$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43da…ad2fbacked Yes | 0c | 51,802$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f08…bebdbacked Yes | 0c | 51,714$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.71 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e3…8ba0backed Yes | 0c | 51,513$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf027…9dcfbacked Yes | 0c | 51,452$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0826…b99ebacked Yes | 0c | 51,432$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x03b3…8dd0backed Yes | 0c | 51,411$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7930…d5dcbacked Yes | 0c | 51,352$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf334…a23ebacked Yes | 0c | 51,341$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c6e…c96ebacked Yes | 0c | 51,336$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8731…e839backed Yes | 0c | 51,176$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc873…93adbacked Yes | 0c | 51,043$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f3b…4992backed Yes | 0c | 51,006$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1875…3015backed Yes | 0c | 50,959$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x73f3…eb1ebacked Yes | 0c | 50,943$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcd3d…ed8dbacked Yes | 0c | 50,942$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97bf…3828backed Yes | 0c | 50,941$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6136…cb24backed Yes | 0c | 50,843$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe94d…9ae3backed Yes | 0c | 50,823$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcb88…5cb8backed Yes | 0c | 50,666$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1465…c666backed Yes | 0c | 50,567$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa0d…6575backed Yes | 0c | 50,500$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3a3f…edb4backed Yes | 0c | 50,125$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.13 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4885…b8afbacked Yes | 0c | 50,047$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2b9…c54dbacked Yes | 0c | 49,606$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4ff8…acadbacked Yes | 0c | 49,597$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfadf…8164backed Yes | 0c | 49,467$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x97c9…21acbacked Yes | 0c | 49,409$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x33b4…ea7abacked Yes | 0c | 48,952$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6531…e6b6backed Yes | 0c | 48,792$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7d00…5d35backed Yes | 0c | 48,299$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a76…b952backed Yes | 0c | 48,218$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7152…faacbacked Yes | 0c | 47,496$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.49 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf961…ac66backed Yes | 0c | 47,369$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeb80…bbf9backed Yes | 0c | 46,553$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b5…b789backed Yes | 0c | 42,310$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.62 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +77%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x285a…fd1bbacked Yes | 0c | 41,618$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.62 | 27 | 0%0 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f52…43debacked Yes | 0c | 31,575$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.58 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9285…c19dbacked Yes | 0c | 30,888$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.89 | 101 | 0%0 W · 101 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9ecb…d40dbacked Yes | 0c | 30,000$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7043…1425backed Yes | 0c | 20,776$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.78 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77ad…279cbacked Yes | 0c | 20,431$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe959…7c7abacked Yes | 0c | 20,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6288…065fbacked Yes | 0c | 18,283$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.28 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa27a…2721backed Yes | 0c | 12,403$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c4b…4669backed Yes | 0c | 11,556$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0c7…c26fbacked Yes | 0c | 11,364$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x752a…3b1dbacked Yes | 0c | 10,489$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x06ed…f76fbacked Yes | 0c | 10,347$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.69 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6d…b3febacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 43 | 4.7%2 W · 41 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe8bb…d93bbacked Yes | 0c | 10,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ac…6b83backed Yes | 0c | 8,333$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc1…ffeebacked Yes | 0c | 6,667$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4230…b1febacked Yes | 0c | 6,509$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2723…6f19backed Yes | 0c | 5,122$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.37 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Tencent have the top AI model on December 31?this page
- Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31?No won
- Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31?No won
- Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31?No won
- Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?Yes won
- Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31?No won
- Will Microsoft have the top AI model on December 31?No won
- Will Mistral AI have the top AI model on December 31?No won
- Will Moonshot have the top AI model on December 31?No won
- Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31?No won
- Will Z.ai have the top AI model on December 31?No won
- Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.