AI · resolved market
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa7e61311724e5882cf8906d0232ffefef68a0ab64716344d28d066febdda5c49
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $2,355,571
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $1,399,438
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,355,571 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 127 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xa445…0286backed Yes | 0c | 377,927$529 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$528.66 | 292 | 0.3%1 W · 291 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x40b1…d3c9backed Yes | 0c | 134,686$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.7 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -79.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes | 0c | 97,327$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.33 | 190 | 11.6%22 W · 168 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2d27…76d8backed Yes | 0c | 79,898$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$109.9 | 22 | 0%0 W · 22 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x07d4…8991backed Yes | 0c | 77,103$308 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$308.3 | 629 | 1.3%8 W · 621 L | -7.1wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -88.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbefa…300dbacked Yes | 0c | 71,624$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.81 | 149 | 1.3%2 W · 147 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 2cpaid | -83.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7aa5…6292backed Yes | 1c | 35,329$497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$496.62 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 15cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3c08…a312backed Yes | 0c | 27,875$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7152…faacbacked Yes | 0c | 26,273$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.24 | 25 | 0%0 W · 25 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeca7…97b7backed Yes | 0c | 25,238$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x38d1…db6fbacked Yes | 0c | 21,970$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7817…9768backed Yes | 1c | 20,785$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x285a…fd1bbacked Yes | 0c | 20,601$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.6 | 27 | 0%0 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e83…9394backed Yes | 0c | 20,500$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.5 | 75 | 10.7%8 W · 67 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 14cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe532…7097backed Yes | 1c | 20,000$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x69f7…b0d5backed Yes | 0c | 19,000$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b5…b789backed Yes | 1c | 18,624$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.1 | 58 | 17.2%10 W · 48 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 14cpaid | +77%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x087b…54fdbacked Yes | 0c | 16,045$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4848…c5a8backed Yes | 0c | 15,000$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes | 1c | 14,732$166 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.84 | 105 | 1.9%2 W · 103 L | -3.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -81.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d10…bfe6backed Yes | 1c | 14,605$219 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.05 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc7e5…2d3abacked Yes | 1c | 13,836$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.6 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -75.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc613…662bbacked Yes | 1c | 13,097$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.45 | 82 | 1.2%1 W · 81 L | +0.6wins | +0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -17.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd56b…6a74backed Yes | 0c | 12,804$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63a6…f308backed Yes | 1c | 12,796$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.03 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 17cpaid | -74.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b6…c02cbacked Yes | 1c | 12,796$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.37 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9285…c19dbacked Yes | 0c | 12,000$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 101 | 0%0 W · 101 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x52ca…f294backed Yes | 1c | 11,877$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.21 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 17cpaid | -87.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x27f0…051fbacked Yes | 1c | 11,485$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.53 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xedc4…cd65backed Yes | 0c | 11,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3c04…3b06backed Yes | 2c | 10,995$172 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$171.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fdf…4452backed Yes | 1c | 10,499$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.99 | 47 | 4.3%2 W · 45 L | -2.6wins | -0.05per pick | 10cpaid | -93.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…9e88backed Yes | 1c | 9,670$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.56 | 17 | 11.8%2 W · 15 L | -1.4wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | -82.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 1c | 8,177$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.32 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes | 1c | 8,000$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd4c4…89bdbacked Yes | 1c | 7,821$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.06 | 13 | 0%0 W · 13 L | -0.7wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2e6…4c12backed Yes | 2c | 7,050$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e60…b913backed Yes | 1c | 7,036$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x561f…a932backed Yes | 2c | 6,914$138 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$138.29 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 34cpaid | -68.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc80a…af9abacked Yes | 0c | 6,699$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17ce…beecbacked Yes | 1c | 6,200$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.55 | 63 | 28.6%18 W · 45 L | +2.7wins | +0.04per pick | 24cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x77d7…6547backed Yes | 1c | 6,154$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.92 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes | 0c | 5,877$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.82 | 243 | 15.2%37 W · 206 L | +7.0wins | +0.03per pick | 12cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd54…b245backed Yes | 1c | 5,555$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.77 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x96e0…b648backed Yes | 1c | 5,500$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.5 | 43 | 16.3%7 W · 36 L | -2.8wins | -0.07per pick | 23cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 1c | 5,356$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.14 | 29 | 13.8%4 W · 25 L | -0.7wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | -74.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6d…b3febacked Yes | 0c | 5,000$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 43 | 4.7%2 W · 41 L | -0.6wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2032…23f7backed Yes | 1c | 4,484$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.9 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 16cpaid | -25%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x10ff…875ebacked Yes | 1c | 4,312$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa56d…82e7backed Yes | 1c | 4,011$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.49 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | -75.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3b37…6962backed Yes | 4c | 3,843$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 34 | 26.5%9 W · 25 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 28cpaid | -38.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4794…d6e5backed Yes | 3c | 3,802$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f3c…434fbacked Yes | 2c | 3,563$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77.53 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3dfe…5f1ebacked Yes | 1c | 3,387$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.71 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -67.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb53…edd1backed Yes | 1c | 3,220$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.77 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 13cpaid | +37.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb098…1038backed Yes | 1c | 3,208$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 19cpaid | +249.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe633…c0febacked Yes | 2c | 3,208$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.09 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6518…f798backed Yes | 1c | 3,126$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.88 | 29 | 17.2%5 W · 24 L | -2.6wins | -0.09per pick | 26cpaid | -66%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd4c7…7e8abacked Yes | 1c | 3,102$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.58 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 33cpaid | -42.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf031…89b5backed Yes | 1c | 3,007$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.92 | 15 | 20%3 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -49%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x87c7…e71dbacked Yes | 2c | 2,975$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.37 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -45.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x42df…e54abacked Yes | 1c | 2,946$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.83 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa45c…1d10backed Yes | 2c | 2,925$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.55 | 32 | 12.5%4 W · 28 L | -1.5wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -19.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd89b…7945backed Yes | 4c | 2,886$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.41 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x385f…a21fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,857$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 65.2%15 W · 8 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc314…f2cbbacked Yes | 1c | 2,843$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.64 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 9cpaid | -91.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x09e6…24a1backed Yes | 1c | 2,809$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.32 | 109 | 33.9%37 W · 72 L | +5.0wins | +0.05per pick | 29cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9716…7889backed Yes | 2c | 2,752$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.44 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.20per pick | 47cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 2c | 2,698$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42 | 256 | 0.8%2 W · 254 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -97.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf2c0…2510backed Yes | 2c | 2,631$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 1c | 2,605$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.32 | 67 | 34.3%23 W · 44 L | +10.3wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x53b0…1bbdbacked Yes | 1c | 2,583$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ac…6b83backed Yes | 4c | 2,492$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 0%0 W · 12 L | -1.2wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcfa8…f6bfbacked Yes | 1c | 2,400$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.08 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x771a…096fbacked Yes | 4c | 2,396$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.74 | 16 | 12.5%2 W · 14 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 14cpaid | -40.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 2c | 2,382$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.29 | 211 | 0.9%2 W · 209 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x00f5…ef1fbacked Yes | 1c | 2,270$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.52 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | -5.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd834…65d2backed Yes | 2c | 2,054$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.08 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbdbb…084ebacked Yes | 2c | 2,000$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36 | 18 | 27.8%5 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -15.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcc02…1e5fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,931$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e74…54e7backed Yes | 2c | 1,834$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.01 | 23 | 13%3 W · 20 L | -2.0wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -57.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3771…cafdbacked Yes | 1c | 1,818$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa8a1…34f9backed Yes | 1c | 1,800$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked Yes | 1c | 1,673$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.04 | 107 | 23.4%25 W · 82 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66ac…a93fbacked Yes | 1c | 1,589$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.05 | 21 | 4.8%1 W · 20 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 3cpaid | -32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4980…3a28backed Yes | 3c | 1,539$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d9…bb87backed Yes | 2c | 1,509$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.98 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +2.3wins | +0.25per pick | 19cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x6c5c…7524backed Yes | 2c | 1,491$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -58.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2723…6f19backed Yes | 2c | 1,465$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.63 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1b…a11dbacked Yes | 2c | 1,430$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.75 | 90 | 41.1%37 W · 53 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2820…e548backed Yes | 1c | 1,429$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e87…28d9backed Yes | 1c | 1,429$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc93a…6b34backed Yes | 1c | 1,410$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.01 | 11 | 0%0 W · 11 L | -1.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x22d7…cde7backed Yes | 3c | 1,343$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.03 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1574…ad8fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,340$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.1 | 11 | 18.2%2 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 22cpaid | -51.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x44a3…dcd8backed Yes | 3c | 1,331$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.53 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d03…fde7backed Yes | 5c | 1,310$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a6e…3eb4backed Yes | 2c | 1,296$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.27 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x36fd…c834backed Yes | 5c | 1,284$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 31cpaid | -51%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x612a…fee9backed Yes | 2c | 1,229$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31?this page
- Will Anthropic have the top AI model on December 31?No won
- Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on December 31?No won
- Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?Yes won
- Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31?No won
- Will Microsoft have the top AI model on December 31?No won
- Will Mistral AI have the top AI model on December 31?No won
- Will Moonshot have the top AI model on December 31?No won
- Will OpenAI have the top AI model on December 31?No won
- Will Tencent have the top AI model on December 31?No won
- Will Z.ai have the top AI model on December 31?No won
- Will xAI have the top AI model on December 31?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.