TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$2,355,571
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$1,399,438

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $2,355,571 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 127 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa445…0286backed Yes0c377,927$529 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$528.662920.3%1 W · 291 L+0.4wins0.00per pick0cpaid-43.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x40b1…d3c9backed Yes0c134,686$299 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.7714.3%1 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-79.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6b0e…e3eabacked Yes0c97,327$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.3319011.6%22 W · 168 L-0.4wins0.00per pick12cpaid-58.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2d27…76d8backed Yes0c79,898$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.9220%0 W · 22 L-0.5wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x07d4…8991backed Yes0c77,103$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.36291.3%8 W · 621 L-7.1wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-88.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbefa…300dbacked Yes0c71,624$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.811491.3%2 W · 147 L-1.5wins-0.01per pick2cpaid-83.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7aa5…6292backed Yes1c35,329$497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$496.621513.3%2 W · 13 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick15cpaid-48.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3c08…a312backed Yes0c27,875$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.8710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7152…faacbacked Yes0c26,273$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.24250%0 W · 25 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeca7…97b7backed Yes0c25,238$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.2410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x38d1…db6fbacked Yes0c21,970$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.9710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7817…9768backed Yes1c20,785$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.7530%0 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x285a…fd1bbacked Yes0c20,601$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.6270%0 W · 27 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9e83…9394backed Yes0c20,500$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.57510.7%8 W · 67 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick14cpaid-82.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe532…7097backed Yes1c20,000$280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$28010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x69f7…b0d5backed Yes0c19,000$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1910%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd8b5…b789backed Yes1c18,624$195 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$195.15817.2%10 W · 48 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick14cpaid+77%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x087b…54fdbacked Yes0c16,045$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.0410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4848…c5a8backed Yes0c15,000$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x99a1…b0c3backed Yes1c14,732$166 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$165.841051.9%2 W · 103 L-3.4wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-81.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4d10…bfe6backed Yes1c14,605$219 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$219.0520%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc7e5…2d3abacked Yes1c13,836$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.6911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick17cpaid-75.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc613…662bbacked Yes1c13,097$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.45821.2%1 W · 81 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick1cpaid-17.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd56b…6a74backed Yes0c12,804$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x63a6…f308backed Yes1c12,796$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.031414.3%2 W · 12 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick17cpaid-74.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc6b6…c02cbacked Yes1c12,796$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.3710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9285…c19dbacked Yes0c12,000$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121010%0 W · 101 L-0.1wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x52ca…f294backed Yes1c11,877$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.211010%1 W · 9 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick17cpaid-87.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x27f0…051fbacked Yes1c11,485$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.5390%0 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xedc4…cd65backed Yes0c11,000$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c04…3b06backed Yes2c10,995$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.7320%0 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fdf…4452backed Yes1c10,499$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.99474.3%2 W · 45 L-2.6wins-0.05per pick10cpaid-93.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x34a9…9e88backed Yes1c9,670$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.561711.8%2 W · 15 L-1.4wins-0.09per pick20cpaid-82.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes1c8,177$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$122.321,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes1c8,000$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56100%0 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd4c4…89bdbacked Yes1c7,821$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.06130%0 W · 13 L-0.7wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb2e6…4c12backed Yes2c7,050$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0e60…b913backed Yes1c7,036$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100100%0 W · 10 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x561f…a932backed Yes2c6,914$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$138.29922.2%2 W · 7 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick34cpaid-68.7%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc80a…af9abacked Yes0c6,699$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x17ce…beecbacked Yes1c6,200$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.556328.6%18 W · 45 L+2.7wins+0.04per pick24cpaid-14.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x77d7…6547backed Yes1c6,154$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.9250%0 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x30f9…fbfcbacked Yes0c5,877$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.8224315.2%37 W · 206 L+7.0wins+0.03per pick12cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd54…b245backed Yes1c5,555$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.7760%0 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x96e0…b648backed Yes1c5,500$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.54316.3%7 W · 36 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick23cpaid-61.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes1c5,356$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.142913.8%4 W · 25 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick16cpaid-74.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9a6d…b3febacked Yes0c5,000$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10434.7%2 W · 41 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-55.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2032…23f7backed Yes1c4,484$27 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$26.92321.7%5 W · 18 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick16cpaid-25%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x10ff…875ebacked Yes1c4,312$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa56d…82e7backed Yes1c4,011$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.491216.7%2 W · 10 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick17cpaid-75.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3b37…6962backed Yes4c3,843$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1503426.5%9 W · 25 L-0.4wins-0.01per pick28cpaid-38.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4794…d6e5backed Yes3c3,802$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13120%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f3c…434fbacked Yes2c3,563$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.5370%0 W · 7 L-1.4wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3dfe…5f1ebacked Yes1c3,387$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.71616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.9wins-0.16per pick32cpaid-67.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfb53…edd1backed Yes1c3,220$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.77319.7%3 W · 28 L-1.1wins-0.04per pick13cpaid+37.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb098…1038backed Yes1c3,208$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$351118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.1wins0.00per pick19cpaid+249.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe633…c0febacked Yes2c3,208$65 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$65.094934.7%17 W · 32 L+1.8wins+0.04per pick31cpaid-12.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x6518…f798backed Yes1c3,126$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34.882917.2%5 W · 24 L-2.6wins-0.09per pick26cpaid-66%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd4c7…7e8abacked Yes1c3,102$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.58540%2 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick33cpaid-42.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf031…89b5backed Yes1c3,007$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.921520%3 W · 12 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick16cpaid-49%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x87c7…e71dbacked Yes2c2,975$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.371330.8%4 W · 9 L-0.8wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-45.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x42df…e54abacked Yes1c2,946$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.8330%0 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa45c…1d10backed Yes2c2,925$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.553212.5%4 W · 28 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick17cpaid-19.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd89b…7945backed Yes4c2,886$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.4140%0 W · 4 L-0.8wins-0.19per pick19cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x385f…a21fbacked Yes1c2,857$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$202365.2%15 W · 8 L+2.5wins+0.11per pick54cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc314…f2cbbacked Yes1c2,843$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.64214.8%1 W · 20 L-0.9wins-0.04per pick9cpaid-91.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x09e6…24a1backed Yes1c2,809$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.3210933.9%37 W · 72 L+5.0wins+0.05per pick29cpaid-12.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9716…7889backed Yes2c2,752$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.44366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.20per pick47cpaid-2.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes2c2,698$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422560.8%2 W · 254 L-8.9wins-0.03per pick4cpaid-97.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf2c0…2510backed Yes2c2,631$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4050%0 W · 5 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x66c1…2c72backed Yes1c2,605$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.326734.3%23 W · 44 L+10.3wins+0.15per pick19cpaid+67.1%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x53b0…1bbdbacked Yes1c2,583$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.6810%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb6ac…6b83backed Yes4c2,492$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100120%0 W · 12 L-1.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcfa8…f6bfbacked Yes1c2,400$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.08714.3%1 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick12cpaid-4.3%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x771a…096fbacked Yes4c2,396$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.741612.5%2 W · 14 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick14cpaid-40.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes2c2,382$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.292110.9%2 W · 209 L-12.0wins-0.06per pick7cpaid-85.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x00f5…ef1fbacked Yes1c2,270$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.52540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick26cpaid-5.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd834…65d2backed Yes2c2,054$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.0840%0 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbdbb…084ebacked Yes2c2,000$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$361827.8%5 W · 13 L-1.3wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-15.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xcc02…1e5fbacked Yes1c1,931$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4410%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e74…54e7backed Yes2c1,834$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.012313%3 W · 20 L-2.0wins-0.09per pick22cpaid-57.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3771…cafdbacked Yes1c1,818$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa8a1…34f9backed Yes1c1,800$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.1610%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb1fe…423abacked Yes1c1,673$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.0410723.4%25 W · 82 L+0.3wins0.00per pick23cpaid-11.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x66ac…a93fbacked Yes1c1,589$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.05214.8%1 W · 20 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick3cpaid-32%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4980…3a28backed Yes3c1,539$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4060%0 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb8d9…bb87backed Yes2c1,509$33 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.98944.4%4 W · 5 L+2.3wins+0.25per pick19cpaid+28.7%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x6c5c…7524backed Yes2c1,491$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$301030%3 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-58.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2723…6f19backed Yes2c1,465$28 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$27.6350%0 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfb1b…a11dbacked Yes2c1,430$26 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.759041.1%37 W · 53 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2820…e548backed Yes1c1,429$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick4cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e87…28d9backed Yes1c1,429$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xc93a…6b34backed Yes1c1,410$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.01110%0 W · 11 L-1.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x22d7…cde7backed Yes3c1,343$40 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.0340%0 W · 4 L-0.4wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x1574…ad8fbacked Yes2c1,340$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.11118.2%2 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.04per pick22cpaid-51.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x44a3…dcd8backed Yes3c1,331$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.5340%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x6d03…fde7backed Yes5c1,310$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6020%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2a6e…3eb4backed Yes2c1,296$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.2750%0 W · 5 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x36fd…c834backed Yes5c1,284$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$602326.1%6 W · 17 L-1.2wins-0.05per pick31cpaid-51%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x612a…fee9backed Yes2c1,229$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3060%0 W · 6 L-0.3wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 12 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.