TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x385f…a21f

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
57
Categories scored
10
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: AI, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category AI at 56 out of 100; worst Music at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 3, 2026, EDT2365.2%15 W · 8 L+2.5wins+0.11per pick54cpaid+4.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
AI — the 23 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$9.85
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$96Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+55.4%+$53.4
Will Anthropic have the best Math AI model at the end of June 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT+38.3%+$6.89
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 27, 2026, EDT+57.8%+$28.91
Will any OpenAI GPT model score at least 60% on the FrontierMath Exam?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$20
Will Claude 5 be released by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$70
Elon no longer world's richest before 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+81.8%+$40.09
Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of December 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$90Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+36%+$32.26
Will xAI have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Google have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$846Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+50.9%+$430.7
Will OpenAI have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$1,095Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+39.7%+$434.03
Will Anthropic have the best AI model for coding at the end of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$297Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+194.1%+$576.59
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$20
Will Google have the top AI model on December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$42
Will Anthropic have the best AI model for math at the end of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+35.3%+$14.21
Will ChatGPT be #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$136Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT+50.2%+$68.19
Grokipedia released by October 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$132Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 30, 2025, EDT+31.6%+$41.61
Grokipedia released by October 24?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$122Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 25, 2025, EDT+31%+$37.95
OpenAI browser by October 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$226Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 21, 2025, EDT-100%-$226.18
Will Sora be the #1 Free App in the US Apple App Store on October 15?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$145Won — open this pick on its own pageOct 15, 2025, EDT+100%+$145.32
Will Microsoft be the second largest company in the world by market cap on September 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$290Won — open this pick on its own pageSep 30, 2025, EDT+45.9%+$133.11
OpenAI social app in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageSep 30, 2025, EDT-100%-$60
All 23 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Jul 3, 2026, EDT1957.9%11 W · 8 L-0.7wins-0.04per pick61cpaid-20.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Lol — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Games Total: O/U 3.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$466Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$155.18
LoL: G2 Esports vs Top Esports - Game 3 Winnerbacked Top Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$256Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$256.25
Games Total: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 3, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$10
First Blood in Game 1?backed T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+56.8%+$56.84
LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid - Game 1 Winnerbacked Team Liquid · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$100Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+62.5%+$62.53
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffsbacked G2 Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT+43.6%+$13.07
LoL: G2 Esports vs Karmine Corp - Game 1 Winnerbacked G2 Esports · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$40
LoL: T1 vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffsbacked T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$3,903Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$3,902.88
LoL: T1 vs BNK FEARX (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffsbacked T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$7,500Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$7,500
LoL: Dplus KIA vs DRX (BO5) - LCK Cup Playoffsbacked Dplus KIA · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$3,000Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST+32.1%+$964.08
LoL: T1 vs Dplus KIA (BO5) - LCK Cup Group Stagebacked T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$1,500Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 31, 2026, EST+28.2%+$423.08
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs KT Rolster (BO5) - LCK Cup Group Stagebacked KT Rolster · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 30, 2026, EST-100%-$100
LoL: T1 vs BNK FEARX (BO3) - LCK Cup Group Stagebacked T1 · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$2,500Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 25, 2026, EST+30.1%+$753.14
LoL: Dplus KIA vs Gen.G (BO3) - LCK Cup Group Stagebacked Gen.G · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$1,500Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 24, 2026, EST+28.2%+$423.08
LoL: Bilibili Gaming vs Anyone's Legend - Game 2 Winnerbacked Anyone's Legend · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 17, 2026, EST-100%-$100
LoL: BNK FEARX vs Nongshim Red Force - Game 1 Winnerbacked BNK FEARX · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$1,000Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST+32.4%+$324.32
LoL: KT Rolster vs DN Freecs (BO3)backed KT Rolster · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$2,731Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST+25%+$682.69
LoL: Anyone's Legend vs T1 (BO5)backed Anyone's Legend · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$130Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 31, 2025, EDT-100%-$129.65
All 19 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Jun 4, 2026, EDT450%2 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-29%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 30, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+9.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
IPO — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Golf Inactivelast resolved Nov 15, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Golf — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Golf, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved Dec 25, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Music — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Dec 31, 2025, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.21per pick79cpaid+26%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$1,488Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+26%+$387.52
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Oct 29, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
No change in Fed interest rates after October 2025 meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 29, 2025, EDT-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
Boxing Inactivelast resolved Dec 20, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Boxing — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Boxing, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Jake Paul vs. Anthony Joshua have no official winner?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 20, 2025, EST-100%-$20
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Oct 1, 2025, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.32per pick32cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US government shutdown by October 1?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$70Lost — open this pick on its own pageOct 1, 2025, EDT-100%-$70.23
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.