AI · resolved market
Will Anthropic have the best AI model for math at the end of 2025?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x206fbde6ceba5c426c19d0799bd9304c6130979f9465721f1f3ceb06cc12aa0b
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $105,870
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $113,297
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $105,870 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 174 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x7b75…3fd1backed Yes | 11c | 3,232$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,886.17 | 120 | 33.3%40 W · 80 L | +6.5wins | +0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f62…38fcbacked Yes | 33c | 2,973$975 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,998.14 | 9 | 66.7%6 W · 3 L | +2.6wins | +0.28per pick | 38cpaid | +56.9%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x9e6d…d521backed Yes | 10c | 2,865$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,565.06 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.17per pick | 16cpaid | +218.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7352…e156backed Yes | 36c | 2,292$835 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,457.2 | 38 | 18.4%7 W · 31 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc179…5cb7backed No | 2c | 2,086$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1b…a11dbacked Yes | 61c | 1,990$1,212 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$778 | 90 | 41.1%37 W · 53 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd36c…6b38backed Yes | 56c | 1,968$1,108 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$860.06 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | +2.0wins | +0.14per pick | 29cpaid | +598.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcca5…296abacked Yes | 69c | 1,678$1,153 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$525.08 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 25c | 1,610$398 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$398.45 | 154 | 52.6%81 W · 73 L | +9.9wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 50c | 1,554$785 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$769.8 | 183 | 23%42 W · 141 L | -4.6wins | -0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x74b6…78c6backed Yes | 65c | 1,545$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$544.58 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +49.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked Yes | 55c | 1,477$814 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$663.07 | 190 | 40.5%77 W · 113 L | +14.4wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc8a0…5cc4backed No | 43c | 1,197$519 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.36 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.10per pick | 60cpaid | -28.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc45…6805backed Yes | 11c | 1,065$120 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$945.17 | 42 | 26.2%11 W · 31 L | -1.1wins | -0.03per pick | 29cpaid | -22.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 63c | 886.94$558 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$557.69 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa271…2727backed No | 1c | 880.18$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 29 | 0%0 W · 29 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23d4…6a60backed Yes | 60c | 739.99$444 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.04 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -4.6wins | -0.36per pick | 51cpaid | -70.5%equal weight | 36-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa6e4…369fbacked Yes | 48c | 715.28$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$371.79 | 72 | 38.9%28 W · 44 L | +6.9wins | +0.10per pick | 29cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x616b…9c32backed No | 10c | 712.03$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed No | 8c | 692.04$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.2 | 258 | 37.6%97 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6eda…75ddbacked Yes | 16c | 615.66$98 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$517.77 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 6c | 605.24$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.82 | 279 | 2.5%7 W · 272 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9416…5a15backed Yes | 64c | 597.99$380 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.99 | 56 | 32.1%18 W · 38 L | -1.5wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -36.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa815…9cbebacked Yes | 5c | 590.3$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$560.76 | 267 | 4.9%13 W · 254 L | -3.2wins | -0.01per pick | 6cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x300f…d366backed Yes | 78c | 572.37$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$127.47 | 56 | 48.2%27 W · 29 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 48cpaid | -7.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 41c | 542.04$224 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$223.86 | 201 | 48.8%98 W · 103 L | +11.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3bef…f04ebacked No | 7c | 541.82$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.85 | 45 | 4.4%2 W · 43 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 6cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 17c | 532.14$88 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.4 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8864…3ed5backed Yes | 72c | 509.68$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.48 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -25.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7a…df1bbacked No | 2c | 500$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 217 | 13.4%29 W · 188 L | +8.1wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd493…7f04backed No | 7c | 473.88$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.89 | 87 | 0%0 W · 87 L | -4.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0d7d…928abacked Yes | 6c | 429.97$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.97 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 14cpaid | +145.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4d1b…1419backed Yes | 48c | 400$192 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$208.18 | 63 | 36.5%23 W · 40 L | -2.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -32%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9246…14c5backed Yes | 45c | 400$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9dc2…0727backed No | 8c | 399.98$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.6 | 85 | 0%0 W · 85 L | -4.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0486…2a2fbacked No | 9c | 393.66$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.43 | 73 | 32.9%24 W · 49 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | +33.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd578…9d00backed Yes | 67c | 393.05$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$128.49 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 39cpaid | -50.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…ef5fbacked Yes | 65c | 380$247 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$132.52 | 46 | 41.3%19 W · 27 L | +1.6wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | +30.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed Yes | 63c | 352.21$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.53 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +11.0wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8929…733ebacked No | 29c | 349.19$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.11 | 38 | 10.5%4 W · 34 L | -3.6wins | -0.10per pick | 20cpaid | -75.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb0…2a51backed Yes | 5c | 313.45$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$298.09 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +175.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x098f…47cdbacked No | 51c | 313.41$160 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.94 | 40 | 52.5%21 W · 19 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x124a…3741backed Yes | 69c | 312.55$216 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$96.81 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4f5e…1773backed Yes | 57c | 300$170 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$130 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.0wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | +111.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x18a6…0b89backed Yes | 17c | 296.45$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$246.45 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +88.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdf86…7d31backed No | 10c | 279$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.61 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.9wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xadf1…1e9bbacked Yes | 72c | 277$201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | -54%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd237…24f2backed No | 37c | 271.18$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d4b…ca7abacked Yes | 13c | 259.41$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$225.39 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +19.9wins | +0.24per pick | 23cpaid | +108.3%equal weight | 71+0.19 edge/pick |
| 0xb09f…545cbacked Yes | 79c | 253.16$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.16 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2ee4…fa88backed No | 78c | 251.59$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.16 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -55.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa5e4…eff6backed Yes | 41c | 250$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.59 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +31.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 6c | 244.28$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.14 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2958…311fbacked Yes | 39c | 235.49$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.53 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +2.2wins | +0.31per pick | 26cpaid | +376.9%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x14c3…bfb9backed Yes | 75c | 234.67$176 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.67 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -43%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 30c | 230.95$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.31 | 183 | 11.5%21 W · 162 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x23ad…5306backed Yes | 14c | 220.2$31 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.37 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +1.2wins | +0.25per pick | 15cpaid | +462%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6660…172bbacked Yes | 57c | 219.98$126 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$93.59 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | -0.5wins | -0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 18c | 219$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.36 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked No | 28c | 210.65$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.94 | 574 | 26.8%154 W · 420 L | -11.5wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe43f…8150backed Yes | 62c | 201.48$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.99 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdbfd…57bcbacked Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -1.5wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -53%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 10c | 200$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.6 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae6…7485backed No | 15c | 199.69$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.54 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 38c | 190.65$72 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.63 | 322 | 28.9%93 W · 229 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe497…84aabacked Yes | 74c | 189.84$141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.72 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa269…7d1fbacked Yes | 78c | 189.25$147 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.94 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0a4b…975ebacked Yes | 53c | 187.36$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.36 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 59cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3612…0ebfbacked Yes | 55c | 182$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0e44…c502backed Yes | 58c | 172.84$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72.84 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.40per pick | 60cpaid | +67.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x442a…7c94backed Yes | 59c | 168.27$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$68.67 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 46cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43a9…faebbacked Yes | 64c | 164.02$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.5 | 10 | 90%9 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.20per pick | 70cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x497b…aba5backed Yes | 63c | 160$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$60 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x564f…7026backed Yes | 63c | 159.07$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.12 | 369 | 45.3%167 W · 202 L | +29.3wins | +0.08per pick | 37cpaid | +22.2%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb07d…23dcbacked Yes | 48c | 159.04$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$83.03 | 68 | 29.4%20 W · 48 L | +6.0wins | +0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xdf93…bdc8backed Yes | 78c | 155.34$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.44 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 12c | 154.95$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.99 | 117 | 5.1%6 W · 111 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6365…5cbfbacked Yes | 66c | 154.06$101 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.06 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc32a…bf78backed Yes | 67c | 150.21$100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.33per pick | 67cpaid | +50.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaadb…85f9backed Yes | 62c | 149.54$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$56.23 | 49 | 18.4%9 W · 40 L | -3.0wins | -0.06per pick | 25cpaid | -21.3%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x47e5…aa2bbacked Yes | 36c | 147.88$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95.32 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1916…b8edbacked No | 28c | 145.32$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.13 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +37.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe6b0…ce9ebacked Yes | 67c | 136.56$92 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$44.63 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | -14.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad78…6df3backed Yes | 68c | 122$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$39.06 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 41c | 118.57$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.53 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x96e9…4b32backed No | 45c | 117.4$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.27 | 47 | 48.9%23 W · 24 L | -3.7wins | -0.08per pick | 57cpaid | -17.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc7…e411backed Yes | 72c | 116.44$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$32.15 | 22 | 59.1%13 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 62cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ec…5d19backed No | 35c | 115.85$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c04…ac99backed Yes | 72c | 112.92$81 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.45 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6282…3ea8backed No | 45c | 109.89$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 30 | 50%15 W · 15 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -13.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x77e7…46debacked Yes | 50c | 107.31$54 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +98.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f85…a51bbacked Yes | 69c | 103.11$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.97 | 43 | 60.5%26 W · 17 L | -2.1wins | -0.05per pick | 65cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x80ed…ce26backed No | 25c | 102.95$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.11 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | +101.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 67c | 102.65$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$33.65 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc511…c479backed Yes | 45c | 100.13$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.13 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +122.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x85cc…4895backed Yes | 53c | 100$53 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.4 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +0.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8817…9df1backed Yes | 41c | 100$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.5 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +105.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x789e…168abacked Yes | 65c | 100$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.16per pick | 59cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x876e…e2ffbacked Yes | 44c | 100$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55.9 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 22cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xabb4…b2c1backed Yes | 45c | 100$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$55 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Anthropic have the best AI model for math at the end of 2025?this page
- Will Alibaba have the best AI model for math at the end of 2025?No won
- Will DeepSeek have the best AI model for math at the end of 2025?No won
- Will Google have the best AI model for math at the end of 2025?No won
- Will Mistral have the best AI model for math at the end of 2025?No won
- Will Moonshot have the best AI model for math at the end of 2025?No won
- Will OpenAI have the best AI model for math at the end of 2025?No won
- Will Z.ai have the best AI model for math at the end of 2025?No won
- Will xAI have the best AI model for math at the end of 2025?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.