TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

AI · resolved market

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Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$78,990
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$58,972

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $78,990 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 116 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in AI
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5b24…84cebacked Yes17c5,765$969 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$968.5530%0 W · 3 L-0.6wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7b75…3fd1backed Yes7c3,717$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.6112033.3%40 W · 80 L+6.5wins+0.05per pick28cpaid-9.4%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x7352…e156backed Yes22c3,532$765 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$765.433818.4%7 W · 31 L-1.8wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-58.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x07ce…3c44backed Yes65c3,051$1,980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,980425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-51.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xa815…9cbebacked Yes4c2,194$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.92674.9%13 W · 254 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick6cpaid-36.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a61…af24backed No24c1,532$368 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,164.519435.1%33 W · 61 L+13.1wins+0.14per pick21cpaid+167%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x1d6a…a1a1backed Yes1c1,470$22 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22170%0 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes4c1,423$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.251,3636.8%93 W · 1,270 L-20.2wins-0.01per pick8cpaid-59.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x9cd7…9c85backed Yes29c1,416$416 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$415.564235.7%15 W · 27 L-2.8wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-12.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3a86…dea8backed No66c1,412$937 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$474.718122.2%18 W · 63 L-5.4wins-0.07per pick29cpaid-54.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xfb1b…a11dbacked Yes38c1,376$527 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$526.989041.1%37 W · 53 L+2.2wins+0.02per pick39cpaid+8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf10…5aacbacked Yes60c1,303$787 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$786.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.60per pick60cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc45…6805backed Yes6c1,054$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.474226.2%11 W · 31 L-1.1wins-0.03per pick29cpaid-22.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d0d…ef5fbacked Yes8c1,000$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$804641.3%19 W · 27 L+1.6wins+0.04per pick38cpaid+30.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x259b…dafcbacked Yes11c933.79$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001428.6%4 W · 10 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick26cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes18c904.45$160 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$159.8318323%42 W · 141 L-4.6wins-0.03per pick25cpaid-35.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4b7c…ef52backed No63c749.93$472 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.471100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x2958…311fbacked Yes14c668$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.22757.1%4 W · 3 L+2.2wins+0.31per pick26cpaid+376.9%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x3bef…f04ebacked Yes5c659.23$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35.03454.4%2 W · 43 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick6cpaid-68.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6eda…75ddbacked Yes28c615.7$174 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$174.081030%3 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid+16.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb826…2606backed Yes14c600.38$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85.611020%2 W · 8 L-1.8wins-0.18per pick38cpaid-63%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1e98…6345backed Yes3c558.57$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$19.32792.5%7 W · 272 L-7.0wins-0.03per pick5cpaid-69.4%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x9795…f696backed Yes33c522$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd493…7f04backed Yes3c507.82$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.18870%0 W · 87 L-4.0wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9aeb…2729backed Yes5c500$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.511855.9%66 W · 52 L+11.0wins+0.09per pick47cpaid+5.8%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa91b…5a12backed Yes7c500$35 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$35250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-35.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xad4f…4e00backed Yes34c492.75$170 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$169.810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9982…23c1backed Yes2c489.06$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.156418.8%12 W · 52 L-1.0wins-0.02per pick20cpaid-65.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No77c483.87$370 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.457426.8%154 W · 420 L-11.5wins-0.02per pick29cpaid-45.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x33db…417abacked Yes4c452.34$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16.5219040.5%77 W · 113 L+14.4wins+0.08per pick33cpaid+0.4%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x9099…8491backed No60c337.27$202 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$134.97852.6%41 W · 37 L+0.3wins0.00per pick52cpaid+2.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad78…6df3backed Yes33c336.12$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$112.24955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.0wins+0.11per pick45cpaid-7.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x993f…35cbbacked No27c335.15$91 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$244.635950.8%30 W · 29 L+4.1wins+0.07per pick44cpaid-1.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6f62…38fcbacked No40c332$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.87966.7%6 W · 3 L+2.6wins+0.28per pick38cpaid+56.9%equal weight58+0.08 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No74c328.65$245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.9415452.6%81 W · 73 L+9.9wins+0.06per pick46cpaid+15.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x989b…d3b0backed Yes47c302$141 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$141.41361.5%8 W · 5 L+0.9wins+0.07per pick55cpaid+0.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4f5e…1773backed Yes17c300$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501866.7%12 W · 6 L+2.0wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+111.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xec3c…d68ebacked Yes4c299.99$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$13.3724.2%3 W · 69 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick5cpaid-54.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5567…aeedbacked No59c286.76$171 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.248041.3%33 W · 47 L-3.2wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-17.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xce31…19c4backed Yes8c273.48$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.886123%14 W · 47 L+0.4wins+0.01per pick22cpaid-43.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2af3…6d85backed Yes11c272.73$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick8cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x18f2…5a03backed Yes48c250$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$119.271241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.1wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-21.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa3e2…fdf8backed No57c248.29$143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$105.7472935.5%259 W · 470 L-57.8wins-0.08per pick43cpaid-26.5%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x9dc2…0727backed Yes5c220$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11.7850%0 W · 85 L-4.1wins-0.05per pick5cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x81ed…6879backed Yes20c212.64$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.9810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdf86…7d31backed Yes6c209$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.8590%0 W · 9 L-0.9wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No66c200$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.312639.7%50 W · 76 L-4.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-33.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x876e…e2ffbacked Yes18c200$36 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36911.1%1 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.11per pick22cpaid-74.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa203…11bcbacked Yes23c200$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+22.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x775e…6999backed Yes29c195.75$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.9250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-35.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507a…be1fbacked Yes5c190.21$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.19812.5%1 W · 7 L-0.4wins-0.05per pick18cpaid-72.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x23ad…5306backed Yes26c171.75$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.24540%2 W · 3 L+1.2wins+0.25per pick15cpaid+462%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x832b…3ae1backed Yes37c168.39$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.33050%15 W · 15 L-1.0wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-24.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x18a6…0b89backed No62c161.29$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$61.29450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+88.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x98f6…e11abacked Yes9c160.78$14 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14.4730%0 W · 3 L-0.5wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc3fc…e3c2backed Yes21c159.23$34 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$33.9210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes37c157.74$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.3612636.5%46 W · 80 L-1.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-15.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc68…bf42backed Yes31c150$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.43616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-36.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x21ff…0d71backed No76c148.96$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$36.0847938%182 W · 297 L-11.3wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-22.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x379d…2afdbacked Yes18c140.67$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2530%0 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x27cc…edafbacked Yes17c139.97$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2d9a…7991backed No75c138.83$104 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.11944.4%4 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.06per pick50cpaid-36.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x7418…9365backed Yes36c126.45$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.82333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.3wins+0.10per pick24cpaid+218.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa6e4…369fbacked No75c123.79$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$30.567238.9%28 W · 44 L+6.9wins+0.10per pick29cpaid+1.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd4fa…3c79backed Yes41c120.49$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5020%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x48f3…104fbacked Yes20c118.15$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.631241.7%5 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.14per pick28cpaid+80.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x5ace…9850backed Yes41c117.42$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.651118.2%2 W · 9 L-2.4wins-0.22per pick40cpaid-64.6%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x64e8…7819backed Yes20c113.73$23 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22.752917.2%5 W · 24 L-1.5wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-18.4%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd6c0…17d0backed Yes55c109.09$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.55per pick55cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No14c107$15 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.0218311.5%21 W · 162 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick12cpaid-31.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1cfc…2111backed No64c106.23$68 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38.2225731.5%81 W · 176 L-14.6wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-32.7%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x3f4f…b4b3backed Yes15c105.99$16 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.7321125.6%54 W · 157 L-8.1wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-23.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x27ec…27aebacked Yes14c105.4$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152020%4 W · 16 L-2.7wins-0.14per pick34cpaid+17.2%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xf44f…bca6backed Yes17c100.39$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1710%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5770…0a3bbacked Yes11c100$11 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1110%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc42f…78a0backed Yes13c100$13 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137636.8%28 W · 48 L+4.9wins+0.06per pick30cpaid+6.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x792b…7fe1backed Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1010%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xabb4…b2c1backed Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-20.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd36c…6b38backed Yes10c100$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101442.9%6 W · 8 L+2.0wins+0.14per pick29cpaid+598.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6236…6881backed No72c96.13$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.698446.4%39 W · 45 L-10.8wins-0.13per pick59cpaid-24.4%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0xdc81…3cc7backed Yes22c90.91$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2080%0 W · 8 L-1.4wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No70c87.02$61 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$26.1520148.8%98 W · 103 L+11.5wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+0.6%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xc6f7…87aebacked Yes53c85$45 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44.951010%1 W · 9 L-2.6wins-0.26per pick36cpaid-82.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x5137…1556backed No13c83$11 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.21366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.25per pick41cpaid+202.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbc60…07f2backed Yes37c80.83$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$30333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.29per pick62cpaid-51.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1330…48d1backed Yes16c77.37$12 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12.3840%0 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6c64…c336backed Yes45c72.17$32 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32.181513.3%2 W · 13 L-3.2wins-0.21per pick35cpaid-81.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x2e25…97f3backed Yes31c65.16$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5fe5…8b99backed No80c63.02$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$12.7819834.8%69 W · 129 L-23.7wins-0.12per pick47cpaid-43.1%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x721a…9295backed No46c59.55$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$32.168150.6%41 W · 40 L+1.7wins+0.02per pick49cpaid-4.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x296e…2637backed Yes65c58.62$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.94560%3 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick63cpaid-21.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecd6…4afdbacked Yes37c54.05$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.08per pick24cpaid-68.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x69fd…cfddbacked No73c53.86$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.331050%5 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+31.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd834…e011backed No72c51.2$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14.421957.9%11 W · 8 L+1.8wins+0.10per pick48cpaid+28.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c57…d410backed Yes31c50$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$15.4616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick18cpaid+89.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x405b…755cbacked Yes76c50$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3820%0 W · 2 L-1.3wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xa8db…bbddbacked Yes41c48.78$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-3.8%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf55…1b54backed Yes41c48.78$20 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2010%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2581…d352backed Yes52c46.94$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24.520%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0861…4421backed Yes35c43.23$15 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 9 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.