TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x6eda…75dd

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
55
Categories scored
8
Categories below 50
3

Best Category: World Politics, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category World Politics at 55 out of 100; worst Us Politics at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Dec 25, 2025, EST1154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.15per pick39cpaid+76%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
World Politics — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah receive between 10,000 and 20,000 votes in the 2025 Honduran presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST-100%-$32.85
Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah receive between 20,000 and 30,000 votes in the 2025 Honduran presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST+1,011.9%+$383.81
Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduran presidential election by between 2% and 3%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$89Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST-100%-$88.51
Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduran presidential election by at least 3%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST-100%-$43.3
Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduran presidential election by between 1% and 2%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$1,775Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST+143.3%+$2,544.28
Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduran presidential election by less than 1%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$2,447Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST-100%-$2,447.39
Will Salvador Nasralla win the 2025 Honduras presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$2,046Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST+28.8%+$589.95
Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduras presidential election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$25,957Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST+25.5%+$6,613.34
Will turnout in the second round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election be between 82% and 84%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST+53.8%+$10.5
Will turnout in the second round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election be between 86% and 88%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$50Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST-100%-$50.12
Will turnout in the second round of the 2025 Chilean presidential election be between 84% and 86%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$232Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 16, 2025, EST+72.7%+$168.36
All 11 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Mar 31, 2026, EDT1030%3 W · 7 L0.0wins0.00per pick30cpaid+16.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
AI — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.32
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$368Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$367.93
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$190Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$190.1
Will Anthropic have the best AI model for math at the end of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$98Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST+528.9%+$517.77
Will Google have the best AI model for math at the end of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$174Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$174.08
Will OpenAI have the best AI model for math at the end of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$169Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$168.64
Gemini 3.0 Flash released by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$219Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 17, 2025, EST-100%-$218.81
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$43Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST-100%-$42.93
Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$54Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST+179.4%+$96.3
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on November 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$627Won — open this pick on its own pageNov 30, 2025, EST+159.9%+$1,002.07
All 10 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Jan 6, 2026, EST837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.5wins+0.06per pick32cpaid-31%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Zootopia 2 be the third highest grossing movie of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$31,361Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST+50.7%+$15,906.4
Will Wicked: For Good be the third highest grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$1,219Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$1,218.86
Will Lilo and Stitch be the third highest grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$11.76
Will Avatar 3 be the third highest grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$949Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$948.99
Will Superman be the third highest grossing movie of 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST+157%+$43.53
Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST-100%-$47
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$328Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+44.7%+$146.59
Will "Wicked: For Good" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 150m and 163m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 24, 2025, EST-100%-$100
All 8 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jan 1, 2026, EST825%2 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.19per pick44cpaid-64.2%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 8 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on December 31, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$373Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$372.77
Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on December 30, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$501Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$501.36
Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on December 29, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$527Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 30, 2025, EST-100%-$526.85
Will the Trump administration release any Epstein-related files on December 27, 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$787Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 28, 2025, EST-100%-$786.86
Will Trump release more Epstein files by December 26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$1,340Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST-100%-$1,340
Will Trump release more Epstein files by December 22?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$8,237Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST+26.9%+$2,219.48
Will Zohran Mamdani win by >9%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$22,408Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 2, 2025, EST+59.6%+$13,345.65
Will the Government shutdown end November 4-7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageNov 8, 2025, EST-100%-$64.61
All 8 picks, newest first.
Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jan 10, 2026, EST771.4%5 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick66cpaid+13%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Dec 3, 2025, EST50%0 W · 5 L-0.5wins-0.11per pick11cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jan 3, 2026, EST366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick57cpaid+20.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Jan 28, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.