World Politics · resolved market
Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduran presidential election by between 2% and 3%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xebc8a6fe3268aec1c4a4675ce8f873ea925727b85ea4bfd6def44a8b7e436a51
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $77,498
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $51,351
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $77,498 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 40 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x90b6…a1b0backed Yes | 6c | 6,657$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.58 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa65c…32fbbacked Yes | 1c | 6,330$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.66 | 46 | 34.8%16 W · 30 L | +1.0wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -15.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5c19…5160backed Yes | 12c | 5,054$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -14.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…c00cbacked Yes | 4c | 4,211$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$177.01 | 50 | 14%7 W · 43 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2278…3188backed Yes | 8c | 3,460$274 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$273.95 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb659…c375backed Yes | 8c | 2,525$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -35.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8662…0731backed Yes | 4c | 2,322$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.35 | 29 | 20.7%6 W · 23 L | -1.6wins | -0.06per pick | 26cpaid | -30.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0b91…ae77backed Yes | 3c | 1,773$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.42 | 56 | 30.4%17 W · 39 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 1c | 1,549$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.28 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a4e…65ddbacked Yes | 2c | 1,525$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.71 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed Yes | 3c | 1,167$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.35 | 476 | 6.5%31 W · 445 L | -8.9wins | -0.02per pick | 8cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes | 6c | 1,141$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.52 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89ae…4b0abacked Yes | 2c | 1,119$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.85 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | +2.1wins | +0.10per pick | 25cpaid | +261.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5117…49b3backed Yes | 2c | 1,074$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.07 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,037$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.34 | 142 | 5.6%8 W · 134 L | -27.2wins | -0.19per pick | 25cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x9e1f…f3c4backed Yes | 5c | 1,014$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +100.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb609…11e5backed Yes | 4c | 949.55$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.17per pick | 8cpaid | +63.6%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6eda…75ddbacked Yes | 9c | 933.62$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$88.51 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +76%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 4c | 918.3$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.11 | 79 | 19%15 W · 64 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0330…eb8fbacked Yes | 1c | 840.31$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9ddf…2c83backed Yes | 2c | 800$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.03 | 37 | 24.3%9 W · 28 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 28cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed Yes | 2c | 614.22$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.73 | 239 | 21.3%51 W · 188 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…8bc9backed Yes | 4c | 551.76$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.04 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -2.4wins | -0.20per pick | 36cpaid | -69.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 5c | 548.86$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.16 | 51 | 41.2%21 W · 30 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 34cpaid | +108.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xabe6…ad92backed Yes | 20c | 534.74$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed Yes | 3c | 529.34$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.89 | 688 | 3.6%25 W · 663 L | -9.5wins | -0.01per pick | 5cpaid | -59.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd0…edc4backed Yes | 13c | 473.84$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61 | 110 | 17.3%19 W · 91 L | +3.9wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd995…15ffbacked Yes | 10c | 450.35$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.77 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xeca7…9567backed Yes | 5c | 437.89$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +174.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x98ce…5e1dbacked Yes | 8c | 360.01$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.95 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 8c | 249.79$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.49 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes | 17c | 247.55$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.51 | 45 | 40%18 W · 27 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -28%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x50f7…3da2backed Yes | 12c | 234.44$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.13 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x731b…90dfbacked Yes | 11c | 210$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.6 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…7819backed Yes | 9c | 209.99$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.85 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54b5…4b31backed Yes | 10c | 203.84$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.36 | 148 | 34.5%51 W · 97 L | -3.8wins | -0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -21.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcda8…4902backed Yes | 7c | 200.74$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.14per pick | 20cpaid | -6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5374…952abacked Yes | 11c | 110$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.77 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.08per pick | 32cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2bef…1e38backed Yes | 11c | 96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.27 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 40cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee3e…ebb5backed Yes | 54c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduran presidential election by between 2% and 3%?this page
- Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduran presidential election by at least 3%?No won
- Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduran presidential election by between 1% and 2%?No won
- Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduran presidential election by less than 1%?Yes won
- Will Salvador Alejandro César Nasralla Salum win the 2025 Honduran presidential election by at least 3%?No won
- Will Salvador Alejandro César Nasralla Salum win the 2025 Honduran presidential election by between 1% and 2%?No won
- Will Salvador Alejandro César Nasralla Salum win the 2025 Honduran presidential election by between 2% and 3%?No won
- Will Salvador Alejandro César Nasralla Salum win the 2025 Honduran presidential election by less than 1%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.