TailMyPicks
Market

World Politics · resolved market

Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduran presidential election by between 1% and 2%?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$126,565
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$115,170

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $126,565 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 131 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x98d0…f14abacked Yes42c15,833$6,691 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,690.7614947.7%71 W · 78 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick43cpaid-6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd748…2125backed Yes64c8,606$5,511 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,510.623540%14 W · 21 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-23.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x8795…7544backed Yes29c7,920$2,273 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,272.729334.4%32 W · 61 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7702…9791backed No71c5,803$4,134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,668.692626.9%7 W · 19 L-6.2wins-0.24per pick51cpaid-60.1%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed No67c5,212$3,511 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,701.1116535.8%59 W · 106 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-22.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6eda…75ddbacked No41c4,319$1,775 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,544.281154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.15per pick39cpaid+76%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xd061…d5e4backed Yes6c4,300$264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$264.41915.8%3 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick16cpaid-61%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes0c2,857$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.121664.2%7 W · 159 L+3.8wins+0.02per pick2cpaid-3.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x90b6…a1b0backed No30c2,412$724 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,688.664425%11 W · 33 L+3.1wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+61.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xea3a…c250backed No22c2,039$445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,594933.3%3 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.02per pick36cpaid+5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb20d…db55backed Yes73c2,000$1,459 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,459.2910%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.73per pick73cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x442a…7c94backed No57c1,804$1,033 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$771.016141%25 W · 36 L+6.1wins+0.10per pick31cpaid+93.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed No65c1,702$1,110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$591.897954.4%43 W · 36 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes47c1,600$747 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$747.2954934.6%190 W · 359 L-37.0wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-27.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2200…0f2dbacked Yes21c1,517$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312.64928.6%14 W · 35 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-19.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x04bf…7cafbacked No26c1,378$358 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,020.765149%25 W · 26 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+23.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed Yes9c1,355$122 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$121.9225337.2%94 W · 159 L+8.0wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfb81…1cf3backed No12c1,332$160 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,172.167335.6%26 W · 47 L+15.3wins+0.21per pick15cpaid+188.8%equal weight67+0.16 edge/pick
0x91b0…4da1backed Yes42c1,227$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$519.581926.3%5 W · 14 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-49.2%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x4333…1f57backed No48c1,200$579 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$621.55843.1%25 W · 33 L-0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No32c1,200$388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81212345.5%56 W · 67 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No2c1,075$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,051.416616.9%28 W · 138 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick12cpaid+111.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0b91…ae77backed Yes43c986.51$428 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$427.845630.4%17 W · 39 L+2.9wins+0.05per pick25cpaid+13.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes44c983.91$433 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433.187919%15 W · 64 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-46.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No68c823.35$560 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$263.1432255%177 W · 145 L+14.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xef28…2d50backed Yes39c785.83$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.082236.4%8 W · 14 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick33cpaid-27.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xbab6…50a2backed No63c742.44$466 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$276.491040%4 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-31.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe7db…c00cbacked Yes39c686.7$265 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$265.025014%7 W · 43 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick16cpaid+26.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb766…1d83backed Yes49c626.68$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.184139%16 W · 25 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+25.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes17c610.79$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.4411039.1%43 W · 67 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xeca7…9567backed Yes15c607.32$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.59633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick22cpaid+174.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0330…eb8fbacked Yes28c584.18$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.055729.8%17 W · 40 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-0.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x5117…49b3backed Yes14c526.73$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.262828.6%8 W · 20 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-21.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed Yes35c515.6$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$180.4144921.2%95 W · 354 L-21.7wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-24.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x502b…a1d5backed Yes28c499.99$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1404847.9%23 W · 25 L+5.4wins+0.11per pick37cpaid+18.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x098f…47cdbacked No69c462.95$321 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.55058%29 W · 21 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+13.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc3de…e227backed No24c459.81$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$350.0923921.3%51 W · 188 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick20cpaid+26.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe6ca…c807backed Yes10c419.89$42 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.8720%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick7cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7234…4c92backed No11c400$44 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3561250%6 W · 6 L+1.3wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+43%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb871…9f15backed Yes39c399.98$156 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$155.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xc23d…82c8backed No58c364.65$210 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.432729.6%8 W · 19 L+0.7wins+0.03per pick27cpaid-10.6%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e1f…f3c4backed Yes31c320.04$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick24cpaid+100.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No42c313.49$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.3626052.3%136 W · 124 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b84…5061backed No73c304.02$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.71785.7%6 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.11per pick74cpaid+17.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd482…355dbacked No69c300$208 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92728.6%2 W · 5 L-1.3wins-0.18per pick46cpaid-56.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5cb2…7f19backed No68c300$205 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$951338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.7wins-0.13per pick52cpaid-37.9%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes78c288.99$226 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$225.9431534%107 W · 208 L+7.7wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes40c282.37$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.4734726.8%93 W · 254 L-12.3wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xad53…ef24backed Yes42c279.1$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.3999017.2%170 W · 820 L-148.8wins-0.15per pick32cpaid-61.5%equal weight34-0.15 edge/pick
0x8996…9c76backed No70c268$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$80.41861.1%11 W · 7 L+1.1wins+0.06per pick55cpaid-11%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd362…9bc4backed No53c253.12$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.176740.3%27 W · 40 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-37.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7a14…d748backed Yes44c250$111 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.169053.3%48 W · 42 L+10.7wins+0.12per pick41cpaid+25.2%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x64e8…7819backed Yes31c242.11$75 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.271526.7%4 W · 11 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick26cpaid-25.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes20c239$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.4228434.2%97 W · 187 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd995…15ffbacked Yes24c239$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.191450%7 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+28.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x01a4…0064backed Yes18c233.88$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$41.33435.3%12 W · 22 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+52.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x670e…c747backed No22c221.21$49 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$172.09540%2 W · 3 L+0.7wins+0.14per pick26cpaid+86.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xab66…ed33backed Yes23c220.85$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.04per pick29cpaid-58.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes23c213.28$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.341,02228%286 W · 736 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x731b…90dfbacked Yes29c210$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.092532%8 W · 17 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick27cpaid+38.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe1f6…595cbacked Yes22c200$44 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44825%2 W · 6 L-0.7wins-0.09per pick34cpaid-53.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7d37…a680backed Yes41c197.61$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$825945.8%27 W · 32 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf085…a01fbacked Yes30c196$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.81241.7%5 W · 7 L+0.1wins0.00per pick41cpaid+8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6a4e…65ddbacked Yes31c194.94$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.4340%0 W · 4 L-0.6wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x50f7…3da2backed Yes25c193.67$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.641338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-27.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5fde…cbbebacked No36c192.04$69 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.991353.8%7 W · 6 L+1.1wins+0.09per pick45cpaid+27.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xfdc2…3811backed Yes43c183$79 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.69616.7%1 W · 5 L-1.8wins-0.31per pick47cpaid-74%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xa82b…5220backed Yes13c180$24 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$23.98035%28 W · 52 L-5.6wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-31.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x793c…e8dabacked No59c177.8$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.156139.3%24 W · 37 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-40.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbe5…72dabacked No35c171.43$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.431566.7%10 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick65cpaid+2.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked No33c170.11$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$113.7837117.8%66 W · 305 L-18.9wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-32.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5754…e515backed Yes26c166.02$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$43.167625%19 W · 57 L-7.3wins-0.10per pick35cpaid-18.2%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x0d93…8cbebacked No15c155$23 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.6516940.2%68 W · 101 L+7.6wins+0.04per pick36cpaid-6.8%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6049…4aa9backed Yes31c151.95$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$47.4933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x898d…261dbacked Yes27c150$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.51040%4 W · 6 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick38cpaid-31.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x117f…088ebacked No64c150$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick41cpaid-38.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd1d7…8c45backed Yes7c149$10 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10.431450%7 W · 7 L+1.9wins+0.14per pick36cpaid+9.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3d32…32e1backed Yes65c148.11$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.94633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-17.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xda7f…c93dbacked No57c148$84 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.64977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.5wins+0.16per pick62cpaid+32%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3078…0389backed Yes32c146.99$47 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46.8656314.6%82 W · 481 L-39.3wins-0.07per pick22cpaid-46.2%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0xccf1…20ccbacked No38c144.52$55 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.3211331%35 W · 78 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick29cpaid-2.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x507c…4166backed Yes67c142$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$95.25536.4%20 W · 35 L-2.2wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-9.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b9d…adc0backed Yes27c141.99$38 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$37.813444.8%60 W · 74 L+17.1wins+0.13per pick32cpaid+13.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x9322…01e3backed No78c141$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$31.021100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x768b…de48backed Yes72c137.96$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001233.3%4 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.16per pick49cpaid-49.6%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x90ae…44adbacked Yes30c135$41 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$40.5955.6%5 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.12per pick43cpaid+4.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xb583…3428backed Yes40c130$52 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$52475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+47.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdb71…10cdbacked Yes37c129.99$48 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$48.15123.5%12 W · 39 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick24cpaid+147.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5326…1d99backed Yes80c125.38$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+354.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x61d0…1d86backed Yes39c118$46 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$45.54250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.17per pick33cpaid+85.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7a01…56fdbacked Yes50c116.96$58 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.09366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+10.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x960a…7062backed No68c113.05$77 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35.652100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf107…b9babacked No58c110.53$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$463928.2%11 W · 28 L-2.6wins-0.07per pick35cpaid-37.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7fae…6853backed Yes25c101$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$25.251030%3 W · 7 L-1.5wins-0.15per pick45cpaid-42.7%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1d94…7523backed No75c101$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$25.251145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-32.4%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x3be0…9836backed No64c100$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$361723.5%4 W · 13 L-2.9wins-0.17per pick41cpaid-49.4%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x865d…16bdbacked No17c100$17 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.572240.9%9 W · 13 L0.0wins0.00per pick41cpaid-19.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb38…ae5fbacked No73c100$73 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$271643.8%7 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-34%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x427a…e05abacked Yes24c90$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$21.31428.6%4 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick28cpaid+36.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4c94…1b47backed Yes36c82.25$30 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3020%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.