World Politics · resolved market
Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduran presidential election by between 1% and 2%?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x132bb77ee16950047538a65d73d0e430d7193c779929e552bf6205f6ae874d14
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $126,565
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $115,170
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $126,565 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 131 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in World Politics | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x98d0…f14abacked Yes | 42c | 15,833$6,691 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$6,690.76 | 149 | 47.7%71 W · 78 L | +6.9wins | +0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd748…2125backed Yes | 64c | 8,606$5,511 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,510.62 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8795…7544backed Yes | 29c | 7,920$2,273 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,272.72 | 93 | 34.4%32 W · 61 L | +2.4wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7702…9791backed No | 71c | 5,803$4,134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,668.69 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -6.2wins | -0.24per pick | 51cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x0a7e…fce4backed No | 67c | 5,212$3,511 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,701.11 | 165 | 35.8%59 W · 106 L | -2.1wins | -0.01per pick | 37cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6eda…75ddbacked No | 41c | 4,319$1,775 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,544.28 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.7wins | +0.15per pick | 39cpaid | +76%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd061…d5e4backed Yes | 6c | 4,300$264 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$264.4 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 16cpaid | -61%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 0c | 2,857$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.12 | 166 | 4.2%7 W · 159 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90b6…a1b0backed No | 30c | 2,412$724 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,688.66 | 44 | 25%11 W · 33 L | +3.1wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | +61.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea3a…c250backed No | 22c | 2,039$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,594 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +5.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb20d…db55backed Yes | 73c | 2,000$1,459 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,459.29 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.7wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x442a…7c94backed No | 57c | 1,804$1,033 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$771.01 | 61 | 41%25 W · 36 L | +6.1wins | +0.10per pick | 31cpaid | +93.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf416…6ec9backed No | 65c | 1,702$1,110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$591.89 | 79 | 54.4%43 W · 36 L | +2.2wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 47c | 1,600$747 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$747.29 | 549 | 34.6%190 W · 359 L | -37.0wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2200…0f2dbacked Yes | 21c | 1,517$313 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.6 | 49 | 28.6%14 W · 35 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x04bf…7cafbacked No | 26c | 1,378$358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020.76 | 51 | 49%25 W · 26 L | +3.2wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf2f6…5817backed Yes | 9c | 1,355$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.92 | 253 | 37.2%94 W · 159 L | +8.0wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -3.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfb81…1cf3backed No | 12c | 1,332$160 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,172.16 | 73 | 35.6%26 W · 47 L | +15.3wins | +0.21per pick | 15cpaid | +188.8%equal weight | 67+0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x91b0…4da1backed Yes | 42c | 1,227$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$519.58 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.06per pick | 32cpaid | -49.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4333…1f57backed No | 48c | 1,200$579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$621.5 | 58 | 43.1%25 W · 33 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -2.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7fb8…d906backed No | 32c | 1,200$388 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$812 | 123 | 45.5%56 W · 67 L | +5.2wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 2c | 1,075$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,051.4 | 166 | 16.9%28 W · 138 L | +7.6wins | +0.05per pick | 12cpaid | +111.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b91…ae77backed Yes | 43c | 986.51$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$427.84 | 56 | 30.4%17 W · 39 L | +2.9wins | +0.05per pick | 25cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2e62…b22ebacked Yes | 44c | 983.91$433 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.18 | 79 | 19%15 W · 64 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -46.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 68c | 823.35$560 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$263.14 | 322 | 55%177 W · 145 L | +14.3wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xef28…2d50backed Yes | 39c | 785.83$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.08 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbab6…50a2backed No | 63c | 742.44$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$276.49 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -31.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe7db…c00cbacked Yes | 39c | 686.7$265 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$265.02 | 50 | 14%7 W · 43 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 16cpaid | +26.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb766…1d83backed Yes | 49c | 626.68$306 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$306.18 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | +2.0wins | +0.05per pick | 34cpaid | +25.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xefde…783dbacked Yes | 17c | 610.79$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$102.44 | 110 | 39.1%43 W · 67 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeca7…9567backed Yes | 15c | 607.32$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.59 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.7wins | +0.11per pick | 22cpaid | +174.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0330…eb8fbacked Yes | 28c | 584.18$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.05 | 57 | 29.8%17 W · 40 L | -2.4wins | -0.04per pick | 34cpaid | -0.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5117…49b3backed Yes | 14c | 526.73$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.26 | 28 | 28.6%8 W · 20 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 25cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed Yes | 35c | 515.6$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180.41 | 449 | 21.2%95 W · 354 L | -21.7wins | -0.05per pick | 26cpaid | -24.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x502b…a1d5backed Yes | 28c | 499.99$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 48 | 47.9%23 W · 25 L | +5.4wins | +0.11per pick | 37cpaid | +18.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x098f…47cdbacked No | 69c | 462.95$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$141.5 | 50 | 58%29 W · 21 L | +1.3wins | +0.03per pick | 55cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc3de…e227backed No | 24c | 459.81$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$350.09 | 239 | 21.3%51 W · 188 L | +3.2wins | +0.01per pick | 20cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe6ca…c807backed Yes | 10c | 419.89$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.87 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7234…4c92backed No | 11c | 400$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$356 | 12 | 50%6 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +43%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb871…9f15backed Yes | 39c | 399.98$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$155.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc23d…82c8backed No | 58c | 364.65$210 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.43 | 27 | 29.6%8 W · 19 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9e1f…f3c4backed Yes | 31c | 320.04$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 24cpaid | +100.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 42c | 313.49$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$181.36 | 260 | 52.3%136 W · 124 L | +2.8wins | +0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b84…5061backed No | 73c | 304.02$221 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.71 | 7 | 85.7%6 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 74cpaid | +17.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd482…355dbacked No | 69c | 300$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$92 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.18per pick | 46cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5cb2…7f19backed No | 68c | 300$205 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$95 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.7wins | -0.13per pick | 52cpaid | -37.9%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes | 78c | 288.99$226 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.94 | 315 | 34%107 W · 208 L | +7.7wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -4.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 40c | 282.37$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$113.47 | 347 | 26.8%93 W · 254 L | -12.3wins | -0.04per pick | 30cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 42c | 279.1$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.39 | 990 | 17.2%170 W · 820 L | -148.8wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 34-0.15 edge/pick |
| 0x8996…9c76backed No | 70c | 268$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.4 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | -11%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd362…9bc4backed No | 53c | 253.12$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$118.17 | 67 | 40.3%27 W · 40 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a14…d748backed Yes | 44c | 250$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.16 | 90 | 53.3%48 W · 42 L | +10.7wins | +0.12per pick | 41cpaid | +25.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x64e8…7819backed Yes | 31c | 242.11$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.27 | 15 | 26.7%4 W · 11 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -25.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6291…cc47backed Yes | 20c | 239$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.42 | 284 | 34.2%97 W · 187 L | +5.2wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd995…15ffbacked Yes | 24c | 239$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.19 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +28.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x01a4…0064backed Yes | 18c | 233.88$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.3 | 34 | 35.3%12 W · 22 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +52.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x670e…c747backed No | 22c | 221.21$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$172.09 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.14per pick | 26cpaid | +86.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab66…ed33backed Yes | 23c | 220.85$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 23c | 213.28$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.34 | 1,022 | 28%286 W · 736 L | +1.6wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x731b…90dfbacked Yes | 29c | 210$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.09 | 25 | 32%8 W · 17 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 27cpaid | +38.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f6…595cbacked Yes | 22c | 200$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 34cpaid | -53.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d37…a680backed Yes | 41c | 197.61$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82 | 59 | 45.8%27 W · 32 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf085…a01fbacked Yes | 30c | 196$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.8 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | +8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6a4e…65ddbacked Yes | 31c | 194.94$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.43 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x50f7…3da2backed Yes | 25c | 193.67$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.64 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 40cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5fde…cbbebacked No | 36c | 192.04$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$122.99 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +27.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfdc2…3811backed Yes | 43c | 183$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.69 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.31per pick | 47cpaid | -74%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa82b…5220backed Yes | 13c | 180$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.9 | 80 | 35%28 W · 52 L | -5.6wins | -0.07per pick | 42cpaid | -31.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x793c…e8dabacked No | 59c | 177.8$105 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$73.15 | 61 | 39.3%24 W · 37 L | -3.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbe5…72dabacked No | 35c | 171.43$60 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111.43 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 65cpaid | +2.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 33c | 170.11$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$113.78 | 371 | 17.8%66 W · 305 L | -18.9wins | -0.05per pick | 23cpaid | -32.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5754…e515backed Yes | 26c | 166.02$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.16 | 76 | 25%19 W · 57 L | -7.3wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0d93…8cbebacked No | 15c | 155$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$131.65 | 169 | 40.2%68 W · 101 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6049…4aa9backed Yes | 31c | 151.95$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.4 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x898d…261dbacked Yes | 27c | 150$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 38cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x117f…088ebacked No | 64c | 150$96 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -38.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd1d7…8c45backed Yes | 7c | 149$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | +1.9wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d32…32e1backed Yes | 65c | 148.11$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.94 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -17.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda7f…c93dbacked No | 57c | 148$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63.64 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +32%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 32c | 146.99$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.86 | 563 | 14.6%82 W · 481 L | -39.3wins | -0.07per pick | 22cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xccf1…20ccbacked No | 38c | 144.52$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.32 | 113 | 31%35 W · 78 L | +1.8wins | +0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -2.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x507c…4166backed Yes | 67c | 142$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.2 | 55 | 36.4%20 W · 35 L | -2.2wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2b9d…adc0backed Yes | 27c | 141.99$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.8 | 134 | 44.8%60 W · 74 L | +17.1wins | +0.13per pick | 32cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 62+0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9322…01e3backed No | 78c | 141$110 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.02 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.22per pick | 78cpaid | +28.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x768b…de48backed Yes | 72c | 137.96$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.16per pick | 49cpaid | -49.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x90ae…44adbacked Yes | 30c | 135$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.5 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb583…3428backed Yes | 40c | 130$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Yes | 37c | 129.99$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.1 | 51 | 23.5%12 W · 39 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 24cpaid | +147.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5326…1d99backed Yes | 80c | 125.38$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +354.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x61d0…1d86backed Yes | 39c | 118$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.54 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.17per pick | 33cpaid | +85.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7a01…56fdbacked Yes | 50c | 116.96$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.09 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x960a…7062backed No | 68c | 113.05$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.65 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +45%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf107…b9babacked No | 58c | 110.53$65 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46 | 39 | 28.2%11 W · 28 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -37.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7fae…6853backed Yes | 25c | 101$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.25 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1d94…7523backed No | 75c | 101$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.25 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3be0…9836backed No | 64c | 100$64 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -2.9wins | -0.17per pick | 41cpaid | -49.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x865d…16bdbacked No | 17c | 100$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$82.57 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 41cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb38…ae5fbacked No | 73c | 100$73 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -34%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x427a…e05abacked Yes | 24c | 90$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.3 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 28cpaid | +36.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c94…1b47backed Yes | 36c | 82.25$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduran presidential election by between 1% and 2%?this page
- Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduran presidential election by at least 3%?No won
- Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduran presidential election by between 2% and 3%?No won
- Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduran presidential election by less than 1%?Yes won
- Will Salvador Alejandro César Nasralla Salum win the 2025 Honduran presidential election by at least 3%?No won
- Will Salvador Alejandro César Nasralla Salum win the 2025 Honduran presidential election by between 1% and 2%?No won
- Will Salvador Alejandro César Nasralla Salum win the 2025 Honduran presidential election by between 2% and 3%?No won
- Will Salvador Alejandro César Nasralla Salum win the 2025 Honduran presidential election by less than 1%?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.