TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

World Politics · resolved market

Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduran presidential election by less than 1%?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
World Politicsevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$172,643
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$145,565

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $172,643 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 159 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in World Politics is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in World Politics
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x7702…9791backed Yes63c27,455$17,340 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10,114.342626.9%7 W · 19 L-6.2wins-0.24per pick51cpaid-60.1%equal weight37-0.12 edge/pick
0xd748…2125backed Yes27c9,555$2,577 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,977.33540%14 W · 21 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-23.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x90b6…a1b0backed Yes26c8,096$2,091 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,005.84425%11 W · 33 L+3.1wins+0.07per pick18cpaid+61.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x98d0…f14abacked Yes44c5,107$2,248 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,859.0614947.7%71 W · 78 L+6.9wins+0.05per pick43cpaid-6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x0a7e…fce4backed Yes54c4,614$2,476 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,137.916535.8%59 W · 106 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick37cpaid-22.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbab6…50a2backed Yes56c3,843$2,161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,682.61040%4 W · 6 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-31.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6eda…75ddbacked No68c3,600$2,447 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,447.391154.5%6 W · 5 L+1.7wins+0.15per pick39cpaid+76%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8795…7544backed Yes33c2,944$983 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,960.999334.4%32 W · 61 L+2.4wins+0.03per pick32cpaid-11.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2200…0f2dbacked Yes22c2,743$598 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,144.934928.6%14 W · 35 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick23cpaid-19.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xeca7…9567backed Yes9c2,466$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,253.09633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.7wins+0.11per pick22cpaid+174.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe154…0b7fbacked No1c2,250$25 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2516616.9%28 W · 138 L+7.6wins+0.05per pick12cpaid+111.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x44c1…ebc1backed Yes42c2,231$945 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,286.026633.3%22 W · 44 L-2.3wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-27.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a3f…a4fdbacked No29c2,000$580 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$580666.7%4 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.14per pick53cpaid+8.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdbd0…edc4backed Yes17c1,868$309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,559.3911017.3%19 W · 91 L+3.9wins+0.04per pick14cpaid-1.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb659…c375backed Yes62c1,759$1,091 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$667.35540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-35.7%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xc3de…e227backed Yes6c1,752$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,640.5523921.3%51 W · 188 L+3.2wins+0.01per pick20cpaid+26.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x89ae…4b0abacked Yes2c1,516$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,4892035%7 W · 13 L+2.1wins+0.10per pick25cpaid+261.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x4959…a6f5backed No42c1,345$567 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$567.3832255%177 W · 145 L+14.3wins+0.04per pick51cpaid-5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa03f…a7dabacked Yes41c1,100$456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$643.51425%1 W · 3 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick31cpaid-39.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2b9d…adc0backed Yes46c1,012$461 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$551.4213444.8%60 W · 74 L+17.1wins+0.13per pick32cpaid+13.3%equal weight62+0.11 edge/pick
0x47ab…95dfbacked Yes3c999.99$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$966.992653.8%14 W · 12 L+3.3wins+0.13per pick41cpaid+105.2%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xaa57…a128backed Yes63c999.56$634 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$365.61650%3 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.05per pick45cpaid+5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8ab…6418backed Yes31c978.29$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$679.0454934.6%190 W · 359 L-37.0wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-27.6%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x076c…4e7bbacked No51c909.48$464 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$463.8336742.5%156 W · 211 L-2.2wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-16.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf416…6ec9backed No69c901.05$618 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$618.167954.4%43 W · 36 L+2.2wins+0.03per pick52cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf2f6…5817backed Yes42c900$378 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52225337.2%94 W · 159 L+8.0wins+0.03per pick34cpaid-3.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd362…9bc4backed No59c856.11$509 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509.326740.3%27 W · 40 L-0.9wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-37.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6291…cc47backed Yes66c819.54$538 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$281.3828434.2%97 W · 187 L+5.2wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-8.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa65c…32fbbacked Yes28c800$225 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5754634.8%16 W · 30 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick33cpaid-15.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc8a0…5cc4backed No64c785.78$501 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$501.091741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick48cpaid+29%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8b44…63fbbacked No41c757.08$310 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$309.9137117.8%66 W · 305 L-18.9wins-0.05per pick23cpaid-32.9%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x011f…1122backed Yes8c723.3$54 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6694413.6%6 W · 38 L-0.6wins-0.01per pick15cpaid-43.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2e62…b22ebacked No38c714.55$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.847919%15 W · 64 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick24cpaid-46.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x0330…eb8fbacked Yes56c691.54$389 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$302.355729.8%17 W · 40 L-2.4wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-0.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x098f…47cdbacked No58c657.93$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$379.655058%29 W · 21 L+1.3wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+13.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7fb8…d906backed No27c600$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$16212345.5%56 W · 67 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick41cpaid-1.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf0b0…8cabbacked No47c596.56$278 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$278.241,02228%286 W · 736 L+1.6wins0.00per pick28cpaid-34.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8662…0731backed No37c567.33$209 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.92920.7%6 W · 23 L-1.6wins-0.06per pick26cpaid-30.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd061…d5e4backed Yes32c543.33$176 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$367.31915.8%3 W · 16 L0.0wins0.00per pick16cpaid-61%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7321…901abacked Yes55c541.55$300 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$241.55250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-9.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x72ab…1a3ebacked No55c531.2$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2937554.7%41 W · 34 L-0.3wins0.00per pick55cpaid-6.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9cf6…559dbacked Yes54c521.99$284 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$238.1631534%107 W · 208 L+7.7wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-4.7%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4333…1f57backed No34c517.3$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$178.35843.1%25 W · 33 L-0.2wins0.00per pick43cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x793c…e8dabacked No59c498.43$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.916139.3%24 W · 37 L-3.8wins-0.06per pick46cpaid-40.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x77b5…9170backed No47c497.03$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.8226052.3%136 W · 124 L+2.8wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-7.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01a4…0064backed Yes56c450.92$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.573435.3%12 W · 22 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick35cpaid+52.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x34b6…c5c5backed Yes58c431.75$250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$182.11450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-21.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd666…d9d6backed Yes49c430$212 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$218.1333.3%1 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.13per pick21cpaid-32.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x945a…a48cbacked Yes12c428.69$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$379.171425.6%8 W · 134 L-27.2wins-0.19per pick25cpaid-58.7%equal weight32-0.16 edge/pick
0x04bf…7cafbacked Yes68c419.67$285 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.035149%25 W · 26 L+3.2wins+0.06per pick43cpaid+23.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3240…5d25backed No41c400$164 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1641546.7%7 W · 8 L0.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid-3.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa113…93f4backed Yes50c391.29$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.646038.3%23 W · 37 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+7.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xb766…1d83backed Yes14c354.53$50 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$304.064139%16 W · 25 L+2.0wins+0.05per pick34cpaid+25.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xc708…ac93backed No67c322.92$218 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$217.64366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick72cpaid-9.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x442a…7c94backed Yes36c316.76$115 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.516141%25 W · 36 L+6.1wins+0.10per pick31cpaid+93.1%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4ae6…7485backed No43c302.14$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.132626.9%7 W · 19 L-3.3wins-0.13per pick40cpaid-32.1%equal weight43-0.07 edge/pick
0x68cb…6db8backed No70c299.02$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$208.48366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick73cpaid-11.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5117…49b3backed Yes34c293.16$99 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$194.292828.6%8 W · 20 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick25cpaid-21.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe0a2…a349backed No42c277$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$116.898048.8%39 W · 41 L+1.8wins+0.02per pick47cpaid+16.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xac8f…feddbacked Yes22c276.56$60 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.56933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick32cpaid-14%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xefde…783dbacked Yes58c268.05$155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112.7411039.1%43 W · 67 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick36cpaid-2.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x58c8…0300backed No39c261$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102.067646.1%35 W · 41 L+2.5wins+0.03per pick43cpaid-9.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3e01…757abacked Yes13c255.47$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.85530.9%17 W · 38 L-1.9wins-0.03per pick34cpaid-22.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes79c253.49$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$53.4916746.1%77 W · 90 L+11.1wins+0.07per pick39cpaid-4.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x3d32…32e1backed Yes29c252.38$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$178.75633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-17.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed No72c250$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1809942.4%42 W · 57 L-11.0wins-0.11per pick53cpaid-30.7%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x6828…1056backed Yes58c226.99$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.124736.8%91 W · 156 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick36cpaid-8.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd995…15ffbacked Yes12c220.56$27 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$193.281450%7 W · 7 L+1.6wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+28.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8de2…8483backed Yes49c213.1$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.83951.3%20 W · 19 L+3.6wins+0.09per pick42cpaid-3.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x731b…90dfbacked Yes12c210$26 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$184.352532%8 W · 17 L+1.3wins+0.05per pick27cpaid+38.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5f43…65fdbacked Yes42c206.44$86 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$120.1220325.6%52 W · 151 L-0.6wins0.00per pick26cpaid+32.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x94fb…d6cbbacked No73c204.23$149 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.314540%18 W · 27 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick41cpaid-28%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x72a2…7b65backed Yes50c200$100 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1002157.1%12 W · 9 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick59cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x959e…0315backed No60c200$119 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1191741.2%7 W · 10 L-1.2wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-34.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf5e6…fb8ebacked No68c197.83$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.68per pick68cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x64c9…6bdebacked No70c197$138 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$137.91154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+60.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcf95…7865backed Yes45c183.76$83 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.7534726.8%93 W · 254 L-12.3wins-0.04per pick30cpaid-31.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf021…df56backed Yes18c183.32$33 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$150.395141.2%21 W · 30 L+3.6wins+0.07per pick34cpaid+108.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x50f4…5e6abacked Yes33c180.02$59 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$121.333043.3%13 W · 17 L+2.8wins+0.09per pick34cpaid+16%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6049…4aa9backed Yes21c178.09$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.84933.3%3 W · 6 L+0.3wins+0.03per pick30cpaid-7.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x06cd…e124backed No49c176$86 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.2430%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x12c2…aa71backed Yes45c173$78 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.15977.8%7 W · 2 L+1.9wins+0.21per pick56cpaid+102.9%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xd134…5558backed Yes30c170$51 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1191050%5 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-1.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbd86…1f67backed Yes54c167.18$90 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.181729.4%5 W · 12 L-1.1wins-0.07per pick36cpaid-48.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x50f7…3da2backed Yes60c167.05$101 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.421338.5%5 W · 8 L-0.1wins-0.01per pick40cpaid-27.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf42b…7577backed Yes50c162$81 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$811323.1%3 W · 10 L-3.0wins-0.23per pick46cpaid-59.7%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x0b2f…c453backed Yes40c156.23$62 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.741127.3%3 W · 8 L-0.6wins-0.06per pick33cpaid-49.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1a25…ab66backed No73c150$110 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.5333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick58cpaid-33.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe4ca…1383backed No43c144.03$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.344921.2%95 W · 354 L-21.7wins-0.05per pick26cpaid-24.3%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xfd42…8895backed No13c139.26$17 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17.412548%12 W · 13 L+6.5wins+0.26per pick22cpaid+119.5%equal weight64+0.13 edge/pick
0xce65…66fdbacked No60c139$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$83.41127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.6wins-0.14per pick42cpaid-47.3%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xf666…8842backed No56c137$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.7250%0 W · 5 L-2.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xdc9a…cc24backed Yes36c131.16$47 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$83.94650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid+17.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb583…3428backed Yes40c130$52 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$78475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+47.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8975…ffe6backed No58c109.86$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.6611069.1%76 W · 34 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick68cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2e8b…856ebacked Yes52c108.32$56 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52.323925.6%10 W · 29 L+2.1wins+0.05per pick20cpaid+30.3%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xea02…23d1backed Yes69c108.01$74 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$34.011631.3%5 W · 11 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick26cpaid+274.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9270…7c9ebacked Yes38c106.21$40 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65.81850%4 W · 4 L+0.6wins+0.08per pick42cpaid-7.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7775…3bc8backed Yes10c104$10 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.6911.1%1 W · 8 L-0.8wins-0.09per pick20cpaid+11.1%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x76f8…5145backed No64c101$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$64.161145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick55cpaid-38.6%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in World Politics and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.