TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x64c9…6bde

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
161
Categories scored
26
Categories below 50
13

Best Category: Us Midterms, grading 55 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Us Midterms at 55 out of 100; worst Movies at 42.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Movies Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT2729.6%8 W · 19 L-3.8wins-0.14per pick44cpaid-50.7%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
Movies — the 27 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to between 10 and 20 years in prison?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$323Won — open this pick on its own pageAug 1, 2026, EDT+71.3%+$230.57
No one announced as next James Bond?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$198Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+150%+$297.6
Will "One Battle After Another" win 3 or fewer awards at the Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.76
Will Marty Supreme win Best Film Editing at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$92Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$92.46
Will Hamnet win Best Adapted Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$46.5
Will Frankenstein win Best Makeup and Hairstyling at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.9
Will Teyana Taylor win Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$175Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$111.93
Will Kylie Jenner attend the Oscars?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$117Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$116.58
Will Robin D. Cook (Frankenstein) be nominated for Achievement in Casting at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$49Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$49.28
Will Jennifer Lawrence be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$16.05
Will Emma Stone be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$91Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+44.9%+$40.92
Will Jesse Plemons be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$105Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$105.41
Will Adam Sandler be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+31.6%+$20.4
Will Jacob Elordi be nominated for Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST+75.4%+$22.36
Will 2000 Meters to Andriivka be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$11.52
Will Cutting Through Rocks be nominated for Best Documentary Feature at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$190Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$189.84
Will Wagner Moura be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$17.76
Will Ariana Grande be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$315Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$315.2
Will Avatar: Fire and Ash be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$36.26
Will The Testament of Ann Lee be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$24.25
Will Josh Safdie be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$442Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 22, 2026, EST-100%-$442
Will The Pitt win Best Television Series – Drama at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$420Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST+31.6%+$132.48
Will "Sarah Silverman: Postmortem" win Best Performance in Stand-Up Comedy on Television?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$31.72
Will Good Hang with Amy Poehler win Best Podcast at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$209Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$208.94
Will Hannah Einbinder (Hacks) win Best Supporting Actress – Television at the 83rd Golden Globes?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 12, 2026, EST-100%-$68.08
Showing 25 of 27 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 20, 2026, EDT2347.8%11 W · 12 L+1.8wins+0.08per pick40cpaid+15.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
NBA — the 23 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Chet Holmgren win the 2025–2026 NBA Defensive Player of the Year?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$44
Will the Phoenix Suns make the NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+138.1%+$51.04
Will the Philadelphia 76ers make the NBA Playoffs?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+170.3%+$28.35
Will the Miami Heat make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 15, 2026, EDT+230.7%+$92.08
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander lead the NBA in points during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.66
Will Victor Wembanyama lead the NBA in blocks during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$66Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$66.3
Will Dyson Daniels lead the NBA in steals during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$741Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+50.4%+$373.3
Will Stephen Curry lead the NBA in three pointers made during the 2025–26 NBA season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)31c$61Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+222.6%+$136.62
Will the Toronto Raptors make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$186Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$185.64
Will the New York Knicks win more than 53.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$487Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$761.28
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2025–2026 NBA Southeast Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+300%+$144
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2025–2026 NBA Southeast Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$232Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT+111.2%+$258.02
Will the Atlanta Hawks make the NBA Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$73Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$73.44
Will the Miami Heat win the 2025–2026 NBA Southeast Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$243Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$243.17
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2025–2026 NBA Pacific Division?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$599Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$598.88
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2025–2026 NBA Atlantic Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.36
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025–2026 NBA Southwest Division?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.56
Will the Toronto Raptors win more than 39.5 regular season games in 2025–26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.6
Will Giannis Antetokounmpo not be traded?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$166Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST+31.6%+$52.32
Will Ja Morant be traded this season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$17.82
Will Jonathan Kuminga be traded this season?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 5, 2026, EST-100%-$79.86
Will Anthony Davis be traded this season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 4, 2026, EST+96.1%+$144.06
Will Keon Ellis be traded this season?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$215Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 2, 2026, EST+40.8%+$87.87
All 23 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT2050%10 W · 10 L+0.2wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+13.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Middle East — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$172Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+156.4%+$268.4
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$195Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$114.7
Israel strike on Yemen by March 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$220Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$220.44
Will Israel strike 2 countries in February 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$195Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$195.2
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$65Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+203%+$131.32
Will Israel strike ≤1 countries in February 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$236Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$236.4
U.S. x Iran Military Engagement by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$466Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$465.92
Nothing Ever Happens: Israel Editionbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$48.24
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 15, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$186Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$185.76
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 12, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$236Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST+112.8%+$266.59
Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$135Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 15, 2026, EST+78.6%+$106.04
Will Israel strike 2 countries in December 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 4, 2026, EST+69.5%+$22.14
Will Trump establish a Gaza “Board of Peace” in 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+284.6%+$136.16
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 20?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 22, 2025, EST-100%-$34.76
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 21?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$89Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 21, 2025, EST-100%-$89.49
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 7?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$18Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST+108.3%+$19.76
Will Israel strike Gaza on December 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$57Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST-100%-$56.84
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 6?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST-100%-$13.23
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 5?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 7, 2025, EST+33.8%+$12.38
Will Israel strike Lebanon on December 4?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$28Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 4, 2025, EST+170.3%+$47.88
All 20 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved Jun 9, 2026, EDT1942.1%8 W · 11 L-1.0wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-13.8%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Weather — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$408Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$407.96
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in February 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+270.4%+$267.91
Will global temperature increase by more than 1.24ºC in February 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$189Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT+35.1%+$66.3
Will there be at least 1,000 measles cases in the U.S. by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$55Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$54.96
Will NYC have less than 2 inches of precipitation in February?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$154Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$154.08
Will the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 5 be between 60 and 70?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 13, 2026, EST-100%-$40.25
Will January 2026 be the 4th or lower hottest on record?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$68Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST+37%+$25.11
Will January 2026 be the 3rd hottest on record?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$50Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 11, 2026, EST+37%+$18.36
Will 30 to 59 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$139Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$139.48
Will fewer than 30 tornadoes occur in the United States in January 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST-100%-$52.2
Another 7.0 or above earthquake by January 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 1, 2026, EST-100%-$28.6
Will global temperature increase by between 1.00ºC and 1.04ºC in December 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$93Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST+150%+$139.8
Will global temperature increase by between 1.05ºC and 1.09ºC in December 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$286Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 14, 2026, EST-100%-$286.5
Will fewer than 30 tornadoes occur in the United States in December?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$48Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 13, 2026, EST+177.8%+$85.12
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$122Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST+74.5%+$90.49
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$47.85
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$119Won — open this pick on its own pageDec 11, 2025, EST+56.3%+$66.96
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in November 2025?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$45.92
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in November 2025?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$42Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 9, 2025, EST-100%-$41.89
All 19 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1533.3%5 W · 10 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick32cpaid-9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
AI — the 15 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will xAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$138Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$137.92
Will OpenAI have a #1 AI model by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$121Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$120.6
Will Google Gemini score at least 45% on the FrontierMath Benchmark?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$296Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$197.6
Elon Musk trillionaire before 2027?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$174Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$174.16
Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$167Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT+150%+$250.8
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$122Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$122.22
Will John Ternus be the next CEO of Apple?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$439Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT+63.9%+$280.41
Will Tesla deliver less than 350000 vehicles in Q1 2026backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$267Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$266.56
Will Larry Page be 2nd richest person on March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.52
Will Alphabet be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$124Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+300%+$372.75
Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.50 (HIGH) by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$156Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$156.48
Another critical Cloudflare incident by February 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$113Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$112.93
Paramount x Warner Bros. acquisition announced by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$11Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+284.6%+$32.56
Will diVine launch iOS app by December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 1, 2026, EST-100%-$17.16
Will Microsoft be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on December 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 31, 2025, EST-100%-$23
All 15 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 14, 2026, EDT1154.5%6 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick49cpaid+60.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Tatiana Auguste win the by-election for the seat of Terrebone in the House of Commons of Canada?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)59c$292Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+69.5%+$202.95
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 60% and 65%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+880.4%+$347.53
Will turnout in the 2025 Honduran general election be between 55% and 60%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.88
Will Democrats 66 (D66) win the most seats in Amsterdam’s 2026 municipal election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$49Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 19, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$25.16
Will the National Citizen Party finish with the third most seats in the Bangladesh parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$256Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 14, 2026, EST-100%-$256.32
Will Han Duck Soo be sentenced to 10–15 years in prison?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$515Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 21, 2026, EST+104.1%+$536.01
Will André Ventura win between 18% and 20% of votes in the first round?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$285Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST+31.6%+$90
Will Luís Marques Mendes win between 18% and 20% of votes in the first round?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$204Won — open this pick on its own pageJan 19, 2026, EST+28.2%+$57.64
Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduran presidential election by less than 1%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$138Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 25, 2025, EST-100%-$137.9
Will Nasry Juan Asfura Zablah win the 2025 Honduran presidential election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 24, 2025, EST-100%-$23.69
Will Ciprian Ciucu get between 20% and 25% of the vote in the Bucharest Mayoral election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST-100%-$15.12
All 11 picks, newest first.
Us Midtermslast resolved Aug 18, 2026, EDT757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.3wins+0.19per pick38cpaid+76.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT560%3 W · 2 L+0.8wins+0.15per pick45cpaid-5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Music — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Jun 11, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.19per pick39cpaid-63.6%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Jan 25, 2026, EST450%2 W · 2 L+0.9wins+0.23per pick27cpaid+131.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
NFL — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

College Football Inactivelast resolved Jan 9, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.14per pick47cpaid-50.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
College Football — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in College Football, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 23, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+39%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Mississippi Valley State Delta Devils vs. Southern Jaguarsbacked Southern Jaguars · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$772Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$205.17
Southern Illinois Salukis vs. Evansville Aces: O/U 142.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$11.9
All 2 picks, newest first.
NHL Inactivelast resolved Apr 14, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+13.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
NHL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved Feb 18, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-34.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
La Liga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Levante UD vs. Villarreal CF end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST-100%-$11.7
Will Levante UD win on 2025-12-14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$184Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST+31.6%+$58.08
All 2 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 22, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Premier League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Poker Inactivelast resolved Dec 3, 2025, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Poker — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Poker, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-01-13?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$134Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$134.2
Will Hamburger SV win on 2026-01-13?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$68.88
All 2 picks, newest first.
Venezuela Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-1.2wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
Venezuela — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Venezuela, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Another US strike on Venezuela by December 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$421Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$421.2
Maduro mugshot released by Monday?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$399Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 6, 2026, EST-100%-$399.04
All 2 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Jun 29, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.84per pick16cpaid+525%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
US forces in Venezuela again by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$139Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT+525%+$729.12
All 1 picks, newest first.
Asian League Inactivelast resolved Feb 24, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.53per pick47cpaid+112.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Asian League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Al Hilal Saudi Club win on 2025-12-19?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$454Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 24, 2026, EST+112.8%+$511.45
All 1 picks, newest first.
Fed Rates Inactivelast resolved Apr 29, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Fed Rates — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fed Rates, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Powell say "Shut down" or "Shutdown" during April press conference?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$677Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 29, 2026, EDT+40.8%+$276.66
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Apr 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Iran strike Abqaiq oil processing facility by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$199Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$77.28
All 1 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Feb 6, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SpyGlass Pharma, Inc.'s market cap be between $650M and $700M at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$183Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST-100%-$182.72
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Dec 8, 2025, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.17per pick17cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Russia strike on Kyiv municipality on December 3?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageDec 8, 2025, EST-100%-$10.2
All 1 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Jul 20, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Map 2: Odd/Even Total Kills?backed Odd · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$601Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$601.15
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.56per pick56cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin outperform NVIDIA (NVDA) in April 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$167Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$166.88
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.