TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will Hamburger SV win on 2026-01-13?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$112,790

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $112,790 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 231 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf519…906bbacked No75c7,793$5,829 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,964.1616647%78 W · 88 L+3.0wins+0.02per pick45cpaid-2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfec0…aeb9backed Yes25c5,216$1,304 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,304.03944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x97e0…8194backed Yes27c4,000$1,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,059.9711644.8%52 W · 64 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick47cpaid+5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x63df…36c4backed Yes27c2,222$600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$600742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+10.6%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed No75c2,073$1,555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$518.47967.1%53 W · 26 L+7.4wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+17.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xe78e…55f0backed Yes27c1,820$492 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$491.65940.7%24 W · 35 L+2.0wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+47.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed No73c1,705$1,245 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$460.485457.4%31 W · 23 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+1.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xfa3b…d6b7backed No74c1,375$1,017 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$357.381241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick52cpaid-27.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed No73c1,336$975 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$360.7569851.9%362 W · 336 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked No74c1,293$955 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$337.611,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3eee…e8b6backed Yes27c1,195$323 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$322.6510945.9%50 W · 59 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-1.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe6c2…7f19backed Yes16c1,159$185 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$185.4410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd035…f165backed Yes25c1,157$287 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$286.546921.7%15 W · 54 L-5.2wins-0.08per pick29cpaid-39%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x8aae…419dbacked No73c1,131$821 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$310.18366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick71cpaid-8.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2bb…ea55backed Yes26c1,115$290 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$289.98143.2%35 W · 46 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc2d9…f193backed Yes3c1,100$31 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$312540%10 W · 15 L+4.1wins+0.16per pick24cpaid+58.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Yes27c1,084$297 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$297.333945.7%155 W · 184 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed No73c1,031$754 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.333,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x95a9…4352backed No74c1,010$747 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$262.6757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick62cpaid-23.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0164…9ed6backed Yes24c1,000$244 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$244.2742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-16.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7250…f52fbacked Yes26c1,000$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2605425.9%14 W · 40 L-3.3wins-0.06per pick32cpaid-25.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x71fb…9b65backed No74c997$738 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.221100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa943…4fedbacked Yes28c985.71$276 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$276250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe87e…4f70backed Yes24c960$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$231.68450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-14.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5dd2…ae40backed Yes16c959$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.44366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+13.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8276…1204backed No74c842.57$623 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$219.07560%3 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.10per pick70cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe07c…1307backed Yes16c808$129 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Yes24c777.01$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$189.6419139.8%76 W · 115 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-29.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c8e…9be8backed Yes27c753$203 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$203.3110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9e5…d252backed No75c751$563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$187.82366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick60cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6bc4…4a8ebacked Yes16c736$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.7620%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x5bcb…f59bbacked Yes26c708$184 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$184.0820%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9859…0176backed No78c705$550 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.12100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+214.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x22f2…90d7backed Yes17c686$116 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$115.8560%3 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.22per pick38cpaid+71.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf100…2fcabacked Yes16c683$109 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$109.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdaa1…eb3abacked Yes17c658$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$111.86366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick36cpaid+113.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf7a9…fee3backed Yes13c630$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.9366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xab38…77febacked No75c614$461 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.5250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-33.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf92a…9134backed No77c609$469 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.07250%1 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick78cpaid-35.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a6f…deaebacked Yes13c595$77 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.35450%2 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+84.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8718…6741backed Yes21c593$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.5320%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xadbd…93f9backed Yes25c583$146 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.75475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.29per pick46cpaid+97.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x1fa8…2bcdbacked No75c583$437 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$145.752100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+94.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7816…af9dbacked Yes26c579.5$152 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$151.94728.6%2 W · 5 L-0.6wins-0.09per pick38cpaid-39.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbf5f…81c0backed Yes22c574$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe911…3d4ebacked No73c568$412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.7449143.2%212 W · 279 L-1.3wins0.00per pick43cpaid+22.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3c9…af45backed Yes27c565$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$152.5540%0 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x2de8…293cbacked No79c555$438 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.552100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick70cpaid+46.6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4e9c…d1bebacked Yes25c538$135 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.5425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid+25%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8d9…08d2backed Yes15c532$80 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$79.8425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-65.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x5944…bd5bbacked Yes24c529.89$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$129.713851.4%71 W · 67 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+12.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7233…f0eabacked Yes16c525$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8420%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa4e2…4c8bbacked Yes16c515$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd01c…7f9dbacked Yes25c500$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12548146.4%223 W · 258 L+0.1wins0.00per pick46cpaid+1.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1f62…76f6backed Yes25c500$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$12563645.1%287 W · 349 L+5.2wins+0.01per pick44cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed Yes25c499.76$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.6249647.4%235 W · 261 L+2.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x64c9…6bdebacked Yes14c492$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$68.8820%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4a40…904bbacked Yes22c492$108 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$108.2410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4061…f5ebbacked Yes14c483$68 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.6220%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xef9f…425ebacked No73c479.99$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.61090%9 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.15per pick75cpaid+20.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xae18…1132backed Yes21c473$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.15250%1 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.29per pick21cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x94fb…d6cbbacked Yes26c463.52$120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$120.217423%17 W · 57 L-3.3wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-10.9%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xab92…15ddbacked Yes22c452$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.44450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-14%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1063…1d3fbacked No78c444$346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.68366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa22e…109cbacked No73c441$322 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.071100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeee4…9964backed Yes23c438$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$100.74250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick42cpaid-16.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5bb6…6d5fbacked Yes13c432$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.16250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-25.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8b45…836ebacked No77c416$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$95.683100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+154.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3045…8f78backed Yes25c400$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10017549.1%86 W · 89 L+1.8wins+0.01per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf51b…bf74backed Yes16c399$64 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.8420%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa906…84e4backed No77c397$306 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$91.312100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+46.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7b23…0d60backed Yes23c397$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$91.3110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa7f…3223backed No73c394.18$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.433467.6%23 W · 11 L+2.7wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+6.6%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xbe71…38d2backed No79c391$309 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.112100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.42per pick59cpaid+94.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1649…7d8abacked Yes26c384.62$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001127.3%3 W · 8 L-1.9wins-0.18per pick45cpaid-50.1%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x2160…bcb3backed Yes27c370.37$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1009937.4%37 W · 62 L-2.4wins-0.02per pick40cpaid-8.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x84d6…bca9backed Yes16c367$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$58.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdcaf…e271backed Yes24c366.79$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.0320%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1b63…bb9cbacked No77c366$282 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$84.18450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-31.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa05b…8df1backed Yes23c366$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.1810%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x05f2…95debacked No78c354$276 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.88366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick75cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x39be…5e7bbacked Yes16c351$56 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$56.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3359…2273backed Yes22c337$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.22per pick22cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4901…8832backed Yes11c336.28$37 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36.99633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick18cpaid+135.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0e29…d190backed Yes22c328$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$72.16366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.40per pick27cpaid+154.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0de5…d01cbacked No79c328$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.882100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+39%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed No78c321.06$252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$69.4124541.6%102 W · 143 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xc0b2…9d96backed Yes17c314$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.3820%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd824…528bbacked Yes25c311$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.75250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.19per pick31cpaid+35.1%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x66a7…6569backed Yes25c303$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$75.7510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Yes28c303$84 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.0615134.4%52 W · 99 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcd9…6c92backed Yes21c301$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$63.2110%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x814c…7ffabacked Yes26c299.97$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.9919446.4%90 W · 104 L-3.1wins-0.02per pick48cpaid-14.9%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5140…a2debacked No79c299$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$62.79250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-36.7%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xb593…28eabacked Yes17c296$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50.32333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick41cpaid-53.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2a5…b42cbacked No78c292$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$64.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.2wins+0.22per pick78cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8c25…606ebacked No13c286.99$37 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$249.64742.9%3 W · 4 L+1.1wins+0.16per pick27cpaid+75.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8b40…8ab4backed No73c274.42$200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.223050%15 W · 15 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d66…fc54backed Yes16c267$43 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$42.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.16per pick16cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xecad…875cbacked Yes22c260$57 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$57.22119%4 W · 17 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-16.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.