TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-01-13?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Yesof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$743,971

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $743,971 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 675 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xfd29…77aebacked Yes49c230,176$113,266 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116,909.756358.7%37 W · 26 L+5.5wins+0.09per pick50cpaid+16.5%equal weight57+0.06 edge/pick
0xc660…bd28backed No50c72,792$36,396 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36,396.0930%0 W · 3 L-1.4wins-0.45per pick45cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xdc87…7ab6backed No51c72,118$36,934 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$36,933.5410553.3%56 W · 49 L+3.4wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+5.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd92…6b2abacked No51c40,000$20,400 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20,399.99757.1%4 W · 3 L+1.1wins+0.15per pick42cpaid+44.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf164…8fa4backed Yes48c26,127$12,541 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,586.044658.7%27 W · 19 L+2.5wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+18.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Yes47c22,001$10,433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,568.5815134.4%52 W · 99 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x43d4…13a2backed No53c20,916$11,161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$11,161.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x72b4…7d67backed No51c20,295$10,350 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,350.454938.8%19 W · 30 L-4.7wins-0.10per pick48cpaid-8.9%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xada5…db70backed Yes48c15,105$7,250 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,854.6366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick40cpaid+26.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x48fe…b2b6backed Yes48c15,000$7,200 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,8003855.3%21 W · 17 L+2.2wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+5.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed No52c14,924$7,775 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,774.753,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6d11…c449backed No51c11,293$5,759 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,759.413548.6%17 W · 18 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick45cpaid+0.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xead0…f3babacked No52c10,000$5,200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,199.991855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.5wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+27.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No48c9,788$4,719 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,718.62,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6dae…4688backed No53c9,679$5,130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,1301040%4 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.05per pick45cpaid-30.5%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Yes48c7,912$3,778 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,134.1733945.7%155 W · 184 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x285e…c2f4backed No52c7,000$3,640 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,639.95650%3 W · 3 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-22.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5543…e1f5backed No52c6,204$3,196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,196.173721.6%8 W · 29 L-6.0wins-0.16per pick38cpaid-64.6%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x5f20…96a8backed No50c6,090$3,049 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,048.791855.6%10 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick52cpaid+1.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x83ab…3d56backed No52c6,000$3,120 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,12010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1aa2…30ccbacked No51c5,882$3,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,0004647.8%22 W · 24 L-0.9wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa3b…d6b7backed Yes47c5,559$2,613 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,946.441241.7%5 W · 7 L-1.3wins-0.11per pick52cpaid-27.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x1867…92cabacked No53c5,419$2,872 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,872.328752.9%46 W · 41 L+1.0wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfec0…aeb9backed Yes47c5,209$2,448 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,760.77944.4%4 W · 5 L+0.7wins+0.08per pick36cpaid+6.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xdf05…291bbacked Yes50c5,000$2,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,500666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.19per pick48cpaid+30.6%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xea00…c1f1backed No52c5,000$2,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,6002759.3%16 W · 11 L+2.3wins+0.09per pick51cpaid+14.7%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4b9a…b04fbacked No53c5,000$2,650 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,649.971650%8 W · 8 L-0.4wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-9.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb917…02c6backed Yes41c4,890$2,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,889.793066.7%20 W · 10 L+2.7wins+0.09per pick58cpaid+16.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x64e9…eb4cbacked Yes47c4,828$2,257 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,571.361764.7%11 W · 6 L+2.3wins+0.14per pick51cpaid+27.5%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed No52c4,593$2,388 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,388.365653.6%30 W · 26 L+1.5wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-0.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked No52c4,210$2,189 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,189.361,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3eee…e8b6backed No53c3,938$2,099 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,098.6510945.9%50 W · 59 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-1.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd05f…8777backed No51c3,812$1,963 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,962.776126.2%16 W · 45 L-7.8wins-0.13per pick39cpaid-52.9%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed No52c3,615$1,880 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,879.5775142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Yes47c3,237$1,521 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,715.3669851.9%362 W · 336 L+22.3wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+9.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xad89…f6e1backed Yes36c3,104$1,131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,973.31662.5%10 W · 6 L+3.3wins+0.21per pick42cpaid+54.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed No51c3,000$1,530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5306058.3%35 W · 25 L+3.9wins+0.07per pick52cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x6a40…c93fbacked No52c3,000$1,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,5607057.1%40 W · 30 L+4.0wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+9.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xae82…faf0backed No52c3,000$1,560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,559.991566.7%10 W · 5 L+2.2wins+0.15per pick52cpaid+28.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x5944…bd5bbacked Yes40c2,917$1,155 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,761.0513851.4%71 W · 67 L+4.9wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+12.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9e16…a795backed No52c2,879$1,497 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,496.931145.5%5 W · 6 L-1.4wins-0.13per pick58cpaid-24%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xefce…4e4abacked No52c2,866$1,500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,499.992157.1%12 W · 9 L+1.1wins+0.05per pick52cpaid+14.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4922…34a7backed Yes46c2,437$1,122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,314.563729.7%11 W · 26 L+0.8wins+0.02per pick28cpaid-12.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3704…0e84backed Yes48c2,419$1,161 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,257.881163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.4wins+0.12per pick51cpaid+20%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7e77…788dbacked Yes48c2,188$1,050 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,137.5633.3%2 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick36cpaid-11.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2c54…efa4backed Yes46c2,164$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,164.22560%3 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+6.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe76f…39fcbacked Yes48c2,083$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,083.331855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+19.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2c54…7e41backed Yes49c2,041$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,040.511163.6%7 W · 4 L+1.5wins+0.14per pick50cpaid+41.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x9fad…5a9fbacked Yes46c2,000$920 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,080.0133244.6%148 W · 184 L-3.1wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc922…2618backed No53c2,000$1,060 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,0609048.9%44 W · 46 L-2.3wins-0.03per pick51cpaid-7.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x92d8…9762backed No44c1,939$854 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$853.74447.7%21 W · 23 L+7.0wins+0.16per pick32cpaid+260.3%equal weight61+0.10 edge/pick
0xebba…383cbacked No52c1,905$1,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$999.961752.9%9 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick50cpaid+14.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed No46c1,852$852 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$85219139.8%76 W · 115 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-29.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd04d…d0e5backed No53c1,769$933 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$932.735457.4%31 W · 23 L+2.6wins+0.05per pick53cpaid+1.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4b62…2e59backed No53c1,760$933 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$932.984252.4%22 W · 20 L+1.9wins+0.05per pick48cpaid+10.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdfe7…820fbacked No52c1,575$819 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$818.93250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-35.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Yes48c1,564$754 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$810.0122747.1%107 W · 120 L+11.6wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf0e2…8e9ebacked Yes41c1,500$610 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8905100%5 W · 0 L+2.3wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+95.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x0da3…67fabacked Yes45c1,471$657 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$813.731100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.55per pick45cpaid+123.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb74c…9c72backed No62c1,464$904 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$903.79250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid-9.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed No52c1,453$756 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$755.8111056.4%62 W · 48 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed No60c1,453$872 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$872.0935856.4%202 W · 156 L+19.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x2c33…0563backed Yes46c1,409$648 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$761.073650%18 W · 18 L+2.0wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+20.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc16…40a5backed Yes46c1,297$600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$696.672142.9%9 W · 12 L+0.5wins+0.03per pick40cpaid+1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc94a…ac22backed Yes39c1,179$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$719.191100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+156.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a6f…deaebacked Yes38c1,172$445 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$726.64450%2 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+84.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6814…d83abacked No51c1,135$578 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$577.65742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-1.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2111…667fbacked Yes37c1,115$413 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$702.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+170.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xa196…5b78backed No52c1,078$560 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$560.479831.6%31 W · 67 L-6.5wins-0.07per pick38cpaid-26%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x160b…4296backed Yes42c1,005$423 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$581.2938748.3%187 W · 200 L-3.4wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86f4…40d5backed No52c1,000$520 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5206256.5%35 W · 27 L0.0wins0.00per pick57cpaid-4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x78bc…2585backed Yes48c1,000$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5201050%5 W · 5 L+0.2wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+4.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xde6c…c5d8backed Yes46c1,000$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5402250%11 W · 11 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick44cpaid+18.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe18a…fd87backed Yes48c1,000$480 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$52024050.4%121 W · 119 L+18.5wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+15.9%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes46c1,000$460 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$54034547.5%164 W · 181 L+0.8wins0.00per pick47cpaid-2.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4fc1…ec92backed No53c999.98$530 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$529.993748.6%18 W · 19 L-0.8wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-15.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc8da…cad3backed Yes47c999.83$470 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$529.912378.3%18 W · 5 L+5.8wins+0.25per pick53cpaid+46.7%equal weight63+0.12 edge/pick
0xa943…4fedbacked Yes40c985.6$394 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$591.36250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.16per pick34cpaid+25%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc62d…8fd8backed Yes44c976.64$430 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$546.871553.3%8 W · 7 L+0.6wins+0.04per pick49cpaid+8.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa8e0…ad50backed No52c975.52$507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507.271428.6%4 W · 10 L-3.6wins-0.26per pick54cpaid-46.4%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xdbd4…5faabacked No52c961.54$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500633.3%2 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.16per pick50cpaid-37.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x4061…f5ebbacked No61c918$564 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$564.3420%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x3334…a65dbacked Yes47c904$425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$479.122454.2%13 W · 11 L+2.5wins+0.11per pick44cpaid+11.7%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x9a6e…35b4backed No53c899.94$475 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$474.729746.4%45 W · 52 L+1.1wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+7.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4fa5…2380backed Yes37c899$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$566.371100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.63per pick37cpaid+170.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xad46…0918backed No61c893$545 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$544.7310%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x13a1…d9bcbacked Yes56c888$497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$390.7216060.6%97 W · 63 L+9.1wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+3.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed No56c852.82$474 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$473.7724541.6%102 W · 143 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x83c5…e193backed Yes36c846.28$308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$538.161145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.2wins+0.11per pick34cpaid+38.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x68ba…0e6abacked Yes38c842$320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$522.04250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid+31.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5b74…93f7backed No63c834$525 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$525.4230%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x1467…4372backed Yes48c833.33$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$433.334264.3%27 W · 15 L+3.3wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+16.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7d0c…a3b7backed No52c826.72$434 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$433.5349647.4%235 W · 261 L+2.0wins0.00per pick47cpaid+1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7635…9ae0backed Yes37c820$303 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$516.6250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.21per pick29cpaid+35.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7086…f376backed No62c818$507 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$507.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.62per pick62cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xc521…b46abacked Yes49c816.33$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$416.331540%6 W · 9 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick47cpaid-6.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7233…f0eabacked No63c807$508 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$508.4120%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6ad8…9bc1backed No52c787.13$411 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$410.565137.3%19 W · 32 L-4.3wins-0.09per pick46cpaid-28.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x1294…9151backed Yes37c775$287 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$488.25250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.23per pick28cpaid+35.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6587…4f63backed No63c775$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$488.2510%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.63per pick63cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.