Bundesliga · resolved market
Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-01-13?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x48a5bfbc06c708a785977eed61a0cca188a9029c68f639ad17bc8d64eaf0cfa6
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- Polymarket published no figure
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $743,971
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $743,971 — TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 675 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xfd29…77aebacked Yes | 49c | 230,176$113,266 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116,909.75 | 63 | 58.7%37 W · 26 L | +5.5wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc660…bd28backed No | 50c | 72,792$36,396 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36,396.09 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.45per pick | 45cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdc87…7ab6backed No | 51c | 72,118$36,934 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36,933.54 | 105 | 53.3%56 W · 49 L | +3.4wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +5.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd92…6b2abacked No | 51c | 40,000$20,400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20,399.99 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.15per pick | 42cpaid | +44.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf164…8fa4backed Yes | 48c | 26,127$12,541 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13,586.04 | 46 | 58.7%27 W · 19 L | +2.5wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +18.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe60a…6a47backed Yes | 47c | 22,001$10,433 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11,568.58 | 151 | 34.4%52 W · 99 L | -2.5wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -7.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43d4…13a2backed No | 53c | 20,916$11,161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11,161.07 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72b4…7d67backed No | 51c | 20,295$10,350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10,350.45 | 49 | 38.8%19 W · 30 L | -4.7wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xada5…db70backed Yes | 48c | 15,105$7,250 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,854.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.26per pick | 40cpaid | +26.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x48fe…b2b6backed Yes | 48c | 15,000$7,200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7,800 | 38 | 55.3%21 W · 17 L | +2.2wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed No | 52c | 14,924$7,775 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$7,774.75 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6d11…c449backed No | 51c | 11,293$5,759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,759.41 | 35 | 48.6%17 W · 18 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 45cpaid | +0.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xead0…f3babacked No | 52c | 10,000$5,200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,199.99 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.5wins | +0.08per pick | 47cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2005…75eabacked No | 48c | 9,788$4,719 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$4,718.6 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6dae…4688backed No | 53c | 9,679$5,130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,130 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xead1…c76abacked Yes | 48c | 7,912$3,778 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,134.17 | 339 | 45.7%155 W · 184 L | +1.9wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +0.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x285e…c2f4backed No | 52c | 7,000$3,640 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,639.95 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5543…e1f5backed No | 52c | 6,204$3,196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,196.17 | 37 | 21.6%8 W · 29 L | -6.0wins | -0.16per pick | 38cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5f20…96a8backed No | 50c | 6,090$3,049 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,048.79 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83ab…3d56backed No | 52c | 6,000$3,120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,120 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.52per pick | 52cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1aa2…30ccbacked No | 51c | 5,882$3,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,000 | 46 | 47.8%22 W · 24 L | -0.9wins | -0.02per pick | 50cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfa3b…d6b7backed Yes | 47c | 5,559$2,613 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,946.44 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -27.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1867…92cabacked No | 53c | 5,419$2,872 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,872.32 | 87 | 52.9%46 W · 41 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 52cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfec0…aeb9backed Yes | 47c | 5,209$2,448 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,760.77 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.08per pick | 36cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf05…291bbacked Yes | 50c | 5,000$2,500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,500 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea00…c1f1backed No | 52c | 5,000$2,600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,600 | 27 | 59.3%16 W · 11 L | +2.3wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b9a…b04fbacked No | 53c | 5,000$2,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,649.97 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -9.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb917…02c6backed Yes | 41c | 4,890$2,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,889.79 | 30 | 66.7%20 W · 10 L | +2.7wins | +0.09per pick | 58cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x64e9…eb4cbacked Yes | 47c | 4,828$2,257 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,571.36 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +2.3wins | +0.14per pick | 51cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xc49f…9e05backed No | 52c | 4,593$2,388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,388.36 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +1.5wins | +0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7ea5…de7bbacked No | 52c | 4,210$2,189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,189.36 | 1,681 | 45.2%759 W · 922 L | +6.8wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | -2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3eee…e8b6backed No | 53c | 3,938$2,099 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,098.65 | 109 | 45.9%50 W · 59 L | -2.9wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd05f…8777backed No | 51c | 3,812$1,963 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,962.77 | 61 | 26.2%16 W · 45 L | -7.8wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -52.9%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed No | 52c | 3,615$1,880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,879.57 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6d3c…d294backed Yes | 47c | 3,237$1,521 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,715.36 | 698 | 51.9%362 W · 336 L | +22.3wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | +9.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad89…f6e1backed Yes | 36c | 3,104$1,131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,973.3 | 16 | 62.5%10 W · 6 L | +3.3wins | +0.21per pick | 42cpaid | +54.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x617b…a499backed No | 51c | 3,000$1,530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,530 | 60 | 58.3%35 W · 25 L | +3.9wins | +0.07per pick | 52cpaid | +11%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6a40…c93fbacked No | 52c | 3,000$1,560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,560 | 70 | 57.1%40 W · 30 L | +4.0wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +9.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xae82…faf0backed No | 52c | 3,000$1,560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,559.99 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +2.2wins | +0.15per pick | 52cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5944…bd5bbacked Yes | 40c | 2,917$1,155 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,761.05 | 138 | 51.4%71 W · 67 L | +4.9wins | +0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +12.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9e16…a795backed No | 52c | 2,879$1,497 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,496.93 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.4wins | -0.13per pick | 58cpaid | -24%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xefce…4e4abacked No | 52c | 2,866$1,500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,499.99 | 21 | 57.1%12 W · 9 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 52cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4922…34a7backed Yes | 46c | 2,437$1,122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,314.56 | 37 | 29.7%11 W · 26 L | +0.8wins | +0.02per pick | 28cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3704…0e84backed Yes | 48c | 2,419$1,161 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,257.88 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.12per pick | 51cpaid | +20%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7e77…788dbacked Yes | 48c | 2,188$1,050 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,137.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c54…efa4backed Yes | 46c | 2,164$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,164.22 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 58cpaid | +6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe76f…39fcbacked Yes | 48c | 2,083$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,083.33 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +1.4wins | +0.08per pick | 48cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c54…7e41backed Yes | 49c | 2,041$1,000 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,040.51 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +1.5wins | +0.14per pick | 50cpaid | +41.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9fad…5a9fbacked Yes | 46c | 2,000$920 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,080.01 | 332 | 44.6%148 W · 184 L | -3.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -4.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc922…2618backed No | 53c | 2,000$1,060 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,060 | 90 | 48.9%44 W · 46 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 51cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x92d8…9762backed No | 44c | 1,939$854 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$853.7 | 44 | 47.7%21 W · 23 L | +7.0wins | +0.16per pick | 32cpaid | +260.3%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xebba…383cbacked No | 52c | 1,905$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$999.96 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | +14.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed No | 46c | 1,852$852 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$852 | 191 | 39.8%76 W · 115 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd04d…d0e5backed No | 53c | 1,769$933 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$932.73 | 54 | 57.4%31 W · 23 L | +2.6wins | +0.05per pick | 53cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b62…2e59backed No | 53c | 1,760$933 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$932.98 | 42 | 52.4%22 W · 20 L | +1.9wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +10.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdfe7…820fbacked No | 52c | 1,575$819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$818.93 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.14per pick | 64cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf5a7…63e7backed Yes | 48c | 1,564$754 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810.01 | 227 | 47.1%107 W · 120 L | +11.6wins | +0.05per pick | 42cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf0e2…8e9ebacked Yes | 41c | 1,500$610 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$890 | 5 | 100%5 W · 0 L | +2.3wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +95.4%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0da3…67fabacked Yes | 45c | 1,471$657 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$813.73 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +123.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb74c…9c72backed No | 62c | 1,464$904 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$903.79 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xba26…23c9backed No | 52c | 1,453$756 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$755.81 | 110 | 56.4%62 W · 48 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | +1.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a86…d3e0backed No | 60c | 1,453$872 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$872.09 | 358 | 56.4%202 W · 156 L | +19.9wins | +0.06per pick | 51cpaid | +10.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2c33…0563backed Yes | 46c | 1,409$648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$761.07 | 36 | 50%18 W · 18 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +20.1%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdc16…40a5backed Yes | 46c | 1,297$600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$696.67 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…ac22backed Yes | 39c | 1,179$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$719.19 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.61per pick | 39cpaid | +156.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6f…deaebacked Yes | 38c | 1,172$445 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$726.64 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.0wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +84.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6814…d83abacked No | 51c | 1,135$578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$577.65 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2111…667fbacked Yes | 37c | 1,115$413 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$702.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa196…5b78backed No | 52c | 1,078$560 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$560.47 | 98 | 31.6%31 W · 67 L | -6.5wins | -0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -26%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x160b…4296backed Yes | 42c | 1,005$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$581.29 | 387 | 48.3%187 W · 200 L | -3.4wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86f4…40d5backed No | 52c | 1,000$520 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$520 | 62 | 56.5%35 W · 27 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x78bc…2585backed Yes | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | +4.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde6c…c5d8backed Yes | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540 | 22 | 50%11 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe18a…fd87backed Yes | 48c | 1,000$480 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$520 | 240 | 50.4%121 W · 119 L | +18.5wins | +0.08per pick | 43cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8d…31eabacked Yes | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540 | 345 | 47.5%164 W · 181 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4fc1…ec92backed No | 53c | 999.98$530 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$529.99 | 37 | 48.6%18 W · 19 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8da…cad3backed Yes | 47c | 999.83$470 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$529.91 | 23 | 78.3%18 W · 5 L | +5.8wins | +0.25per pick | 53cpaid | +46.7%equal weight | 63+0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xa943…4fedbacked Yes | 40c | 985.6$394 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$591.36 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc62d…8fd8backed Yes | 44c | 976.64$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.87 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.6wins | +0.04per pick | 49cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa8e0…ad50backed No | 52c | 975.52$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.27 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -3.6wins | -0.26per pick | 54cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xdbd4…5faabacked No | 52c | 961.54$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$500 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.16per pick | 50cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4061…f5ebbacked No | 61c | 918$564 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$564.34 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3334…a65dbacked Yes | 47c | 904$425 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$479.12 | 24 | 54.2%13 W · 11 L | +2.5wins | +0.11per pick | 44cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a6e…35b4backed No | 53c | 899.94$475 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$474.72 | 97 | 46.4%45 W · 52 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4fa5…2380backed Yes | 37c | 899$333 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$566.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.63per pick | 37cpaid | +170.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad46…0918backed No | 61c | 893$545 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$544.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.61per pick | 61cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x13a1…d9bcbacked Yes | 56c | 888$497 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$390.72 | 160 | 60.6%97 W · 63 L | +9.1wins | +0.06per pick | 55cpaid | +3.9%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcb5b…f243backed No | 56c | 852.82$474 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$473.77 | 245 | 41.6%102 W · 143 L | -5.0wins | -0.02per pick | 44cpaid | -14%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…e193backed Yes | 36c | 846.28$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$538.16 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x68ba…0e6abacked Yes | 38c | 842$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$522.04 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.09per pick | 59cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…93f7backed No | 63c | 834$525 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$525.42 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1467…4372backed Yes | 48c | 833.33$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$433.33 | 42 | 64.3%27 W · 15 L | +3.3wins | +0.08per pick | 56cpaid | +16.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7d0c…a3b7backed No | 52c | 826.72$434 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$433.53 | 496 | 47.4%235 W · 261 L | +2.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7635…9ae0backed Yes | 37c | 820$303 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.21per pick | 29cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7086…f376backed No | 62c | 818$507 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$507.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.62per pick | 62cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc521…b46abacked Yes | 49c | 816.33$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.33 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -1.0wins | -0.07per pick | 47cpaid | -6.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7233…f0eabacked No | 63c | 807$508 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$508.41 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ad8…9bc1backed No | 52c | 787.13$411 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$410.56 | 51 | 37.3%19 W · 32 L | -4.3wins | -0.09per pick | 46cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1294…9151backed Yes | 37c | 775$287 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$488.25 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.23per pick | 28cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6587…4f63backed No | 63c | 775$488 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$488.25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.63per pick | 63cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will Bayer 04 Leverkusen win on 2026-01-13?this page
- Will Hamburger SV vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen end in a draw?No won
- Will Hamburger SV win on 2026-01-13?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.