TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Will Hamburger SV vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen end in a draw?

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$74,402
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$79,375

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $74,402 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 187 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xa383…a2f0backed Yes3c2,136$59 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$59.49145.1%41 W · 50 L+0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid-25%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9778…1d7bbacked Yes28c1,631$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$449.7320%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4bba…cf14backed No74c1,573$1,164 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$408.932955.2%16 W · 13 L-4.6wins-0.16per pick71cpaid-22.1%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x636a…09aabacked No72c1,427$1,027 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$399.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xfd43…cd41backed No74c1,351$1,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$351.252259.1%13 W · 9 L-2.7wins-0.12per pick71cpaid-18.8%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Yes27c1,299$349 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$348.9533945.7%155 W · 184 L+1.9wins+0.01per pick45cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Yes26c1,205$313 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$313.251,68145.2%759 W · 922 L+6.8wins0.00per pick45cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe76f…39fcbacked Yes27c1,111$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3001855.6%10 W · 8 L+1.4wins+0.08per pick48cpaid+19.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Yes27c1,080$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.332,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x246f…0ab2backed Yes27c1,042$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.34333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-30.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8fe7…4f20backed Yes26c999.97$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.9912651.6%65 W · 61 L-1.3wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-10.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x86c5…4c23backed Yes28c965$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.2250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+150%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb86e…e0ecbacked No72c906$652 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$253.68366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfd44…1837backed Yes27c868$234 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$234.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd727…6e2ebacked Yes28c830$232 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$232.410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2bb…ea55backed Yes26c806.98$210 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$209.828143.2%35 W · 46 L-0.8wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-10.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xcfb8…ec8dbacked Yes27c791$214 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$213.5710%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x245c…75e7backed Yes27c782$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.1410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a54…db64backed No70c778$545 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc3c…d42ebacked No73c774$565 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$208.98450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+65.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8d9…08d2backed No72c771$555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$215.88425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-65.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x805a…735dbacked Yes28c766$211 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$211.0410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3734…01a3backed No73c762$556 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.742100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.54per pick46cpaid+231.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x82aa…2393backed Yes28c742$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.76450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x968f…a539backed Yes27c738$199 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.2610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5a7…63e7backed Yes14c714.29$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10022747.1%107 W · 120 L+11.6wins+0.05per pick42cpaid+15.2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3143…cd52backed Yes27c706$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.62250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe72c…bbf0backed No73c687$502 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.49250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.27per pick77cpaid-31.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8401…a498backed No73c673$491 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.712100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.54per pick47cpaid+218.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd5e7…ebdcbacked Yes30c657$197 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$197.1333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick59cpaid-50.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x13a1…d9bcbacked No61c655$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.7516060.6%97 W · 63 L+9.1wins+0.06per pick55cpaid+3.9%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0298…eadcbacked No70c652$456 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x75bd…0288backed Yes29c650.85$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.69646.9%45 W · 51 L+3.0wins+0.03per pick44cpaid+17.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5243…a73cbacked Yes27c636$172 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.7210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe4d9…2a4ebacked No72c584$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$163.523100%3 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+177.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xb2eb…5751backed No66c577$381 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$196.18580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.24per pick56cpaid+42.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x02ce…2213backed No73c576$420 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$155.521100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0c94…a43bbacked No74c574.63$425 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.4757.1%4 W · 3 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick67cpaid-16.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0fe6…d8e3backed No73c529$386 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.83250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xeab9…2ff1backed No73c524$383 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.482100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+50.5%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b47…8191backed Yes27c516$139 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.32250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-20.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd6b9…d0c7backed No72c505$364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.42100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4744…e229backed Yes27c483$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.41333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick42cpaid-30.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xadbd…93f9backed No73c479$350 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$129.33475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.29per pick46cpaid+97.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x8669…7111backed No73c474$346 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.981100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcdb8…f285backed No71c468$332 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.72450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x54d5…b5cebacked Yes30c466$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$139.810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xffa1…15bdbacked No72c466$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.48250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5ae0…4590backed Yes28c466$130 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.48250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6546…c454backed No69c453$313 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.432100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick68cpaid+48.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x16a0…72f1backed Yes31c453$140 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$140.4320%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xcb88…8e33backed Yes52c442.75$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$230.0710%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb0d7…f9fabacked No73c431.39$314 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$116.972748.1%13 W · 14 L-0.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x374b…9a1fbacked Yes30c421$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.3333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-35.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x656c…af94backed No72c420$302 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.28per pick72cpaid+38.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1d23…aa07backed Yes28c420$118 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.630%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x9818…7cd3backed Yes30c418$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4597…272bbacked Yes27c414.81$112 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1123246.9%15 W · 17 L+2.1wins+0.07per pick40cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xba6f…8cc1backed No73c410$299 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$110.7333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-54.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4a86…d3e0backed No67c400$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13235856.4%202 W · 156 L+19.9wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+10.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed No73c400$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$10811056.4%62 W · 48 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x4924…f404backed No73c398$291 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$107.462100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8f85…e5a3backed Yes27c398$107 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$107.4610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x090a…cd55backed Yes34c395$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x88c4…758bbacked No73c381$278 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.87366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+104.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3474…be04backed No73c380$277 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$102.61100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b63…bb9cbacked No70c371$260 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$111.3450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-31.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbf57…588ebacked No73c346$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.42580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.25per pick55cpaid+96.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xd7a8…7efabacked Yes31c339$105 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$105.0910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa938…a1ffbacked Yes27c337$91 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$90.99333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-49.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xce55…c888backed No69c321$221 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.512100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick66cpaid+53.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9d22…da8bbacked No73c318$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$85.862100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+100.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x74b8…0c87backed Yes28c317$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.7610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6d48…d6f1backed Yes28c309$87 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$86.52250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9b47…9930backed Yes28c302$85 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$84.5610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9c2d…ddd6backed No73c301$220 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.27333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.24per pick57cpaid-54.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1220…741abacked No70c299$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$89.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+42.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43d5…2e11backed Yes28c294$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.32366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick44cpaid+36%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xd137…ceacbacked Yes29c286$83 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$82.9420%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xb767…9b51backed No73c286$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$77.223100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+60.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x22f2…90d7backed Yes30c272$82 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$81.6560%3 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.22per pick38cpaid+71.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x910a…91a9backed No70c272$190 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$81.6450%2 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-30%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb4b7…e13bbacked Yes26c266.15$69 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd4f3…be1dbacked Yes27c265$72 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$71.5510%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd786…857abacked No73c265$193 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$71.551100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa347…2a40backed No73c253$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$68.312100%2 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x7039…2d8abacked No71c251$178 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.791100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.29per pick71cpaid+40.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8ae…bb88backed No73c251$183 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$67.77250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd2d7…ba47backed No74c250$185 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$656251.6%32 W · 30 L-0.1wins0.00per pick52cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x325a…a634backed Yes27c249$67 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$67.2310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe794…321cbacked No73c247$180 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$66.692100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+103.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6558…e485backed Yes30c236$71 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$70.8250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick26cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe60a…6a47backed Yes26c236$62 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.5115134.4%52 W · 99 L-2.5wins-0.02per pick36cpaid-7.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xcb5b…f243backed No73c233.32$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$63.9924541.6%102 W · 143 L-5.0wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-14%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9271…a28abacked Yes27c226$61 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$61.024835.4%17 W · 31 L+1.6wins+0.03per pick32cpaid+13.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x11e9…8e90backed No73c223$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$60.211100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+37%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e17…0d52backed Yes27c223$60 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$60.21333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-12.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed No80c217.91$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$43.7219139.8%76 W · 115 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-29.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7a9…fee3backed No73c215$157 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$58.05366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x177c…bcd1backed Yes10c207.9$21 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$20.69650%3 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.07per pick43cpaid-1.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 3 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.