TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x374b…9a1f

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
59
Categories scored
18
Categories below 50
12

Best Category: World Politics, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category World Politics at 56 out of 100; worst Middle East at 44.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 2, 2026, EDT1040%4 W · 6 L+0.5wins+0.05per pick35cpaid+72.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
AI — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Tesla launch robotaxis in California by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.4
Gemini 3.5 released by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$419Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 19, 2026, EDT-100%-$418.68
Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.75 (HIGH) by April 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$71Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT+566.7%+$402.9
Will the Silicon Data H100 Index (SDH100RT) hit $2.00 (LOW) by April 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$62.33
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 Superheavy explode?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$142Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+177.8%+$252.8
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$57Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT+53.8%+$30.45
Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$256Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$255.74
Will OpenAI GPT score at least 35% on Humanity’s Last Exam?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$81Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$80.82
Will Apple be the third-largest company in the world by market cap on February 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$391Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$391.04
Paramount x Warner Bros. acquisition announced by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$164Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST+525%+$862.68
All 10 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT933.3%3 W · 6 L-1.8wins-0.20per pick54cpaid-40.9%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
Middle East — the 9 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Venezuela recognize Israel by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$152Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$151.95
Israel strike on Yemen by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$487Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$487.07
Will Khamenei tweet again on March 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$823Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 21, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$320.04
Trump invokes War Powers against Iran by March 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$307Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST-100%-$307.36
Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$383Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST-100%-$383.32
U.S. x Iran Military Engagement by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$81Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST+37%+$29.97
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$202Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 27, 2026, EST-100%-$201.52
Khamenei public appearance by February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 12, 2026, EST-100%-$19.8
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 6, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$131Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST+156.4%+$205.57
All 9 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT633.3%2 W · 4 L0.0wins0.00per pick33cpaid-48%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Movies — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Asian League Inactivelast resolved Apr 17, 2026, EDT580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.26per pick54cpaid+54.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
Asian League — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Asian League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Jun 2, 2026, EDT520%1 W · 4 L-1.0wins-0.20per pick40cpaid-74.4%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
Weather — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 4, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.37per pick38cpaid+285.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
World Politics — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.09per pick43cpaid-47.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Music — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-35.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

La Liga Inactivelast resolved Feb 18, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid-33.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
La Liga — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in La Liga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Levante UD vs. Villarreal CF end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$86Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST+33.3%+$28.5
Will Villarreal CF win on 2025-12-14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$399Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 18, 2026, EST-100%-$399
All 2 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Mar 6, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.21per pick72cpaid-27.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Mar 5, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.36per pick36cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Celtic FC win on 2026-02-04?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$143Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 5, 2026, EST-100%-$142.5
Dundee United FC vs. Aberdeen FC: O/U 1.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)41c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST-100%-$24.6
All 2 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Feb 6, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
IPO — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.85per pick15cpaid+566.7%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
NFL — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "Legendary" be said at the Super Bowl?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$58Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+566.7%+$326.4
All 1 picks, newest first.
CS2 Inactivelast resolved Mar 23, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+104.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
CS2 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Furia qualify to Blast Open Rotterdam Playoffs?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$278Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT+104.1%+$289.68
All 1 picks, newest first.
Euroleague Inactivelast resolved Mar 17, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+99.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Euroleague — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Euroleague, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Olympiacos B.C. vs. Fenerbahcebacked Olympiacos B.C. · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$184Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 17, 2026, EDT+99.2%+$182.77
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 24, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.21per pick21cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Blackburn Beavers vs. Eastern Illinois Panthersbacked Blackburn Beavers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$224Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$224.08
All 1 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Apr 14, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Premier League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Portsmouth FC vs. Ipswich Town FC: Both Teams to Scorebacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$131Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$131.1
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Mar 25, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.7wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will White House post 180-199 posts from March 17 to March 24, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$638Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$637.92
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.