TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Hamburger SV vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 1.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$73,411

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $73,411 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 243 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x8f03…64d6backed Under53c7,282$3,868 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,414.65757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.4wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+14.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Under38c2,331$887 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,443.8819139.8%76 W · 115 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-29.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under20c1,955$387 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,567.733,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Over47c1,713$797 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$796.72,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef37…f2bcbacked Under19c1,425$265 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,159.79366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick42cpaid+133.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa661…eb28backed Over50c1,400$703 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$702.8366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.06per pick61cpaid+1.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1787…44a9backed Over61c1,302$794 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$794.2220%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x219e…14d9backed Over77c1,300$1,001 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,000.9913461.9%83 W · 51 L+4.7wins+0.04per pick58cpaid+6.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x14f3…0c3dbacked Under21c1,270$267 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,003.31729.4%5 W · 12 L-2.6wins-0.16per pick45cpaid-28.3%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0x5374…952abacked Under18c1,269$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,040.581100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.82per pick18cpaid+455.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdc3c…d42ebacked Under19c1,233$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$997.5450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+65.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe95b…1f15backed Over52c1,229$639 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$639.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Over79c1,218$961 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$961.1775142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xad89…f6e1backed Under18c1,142$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$934.771662.5%10 W · 6 L+3.3wins+0.21per pick42cpaid+54.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe54d…c913backed Over52c1,126$586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$585.52250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x9464…b4cbbacked Over80c1,057$846 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$845.610%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8e9e…bd49backed Under20c1,056$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$844.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.80per pick20cpaid+400%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb132…6943backed Over79c1,014$804 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$803.61250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.08per pick58cpaid+35.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0b9c…7e44backed Under20c1,007$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$805.241957.9%11 W · 8 L+0.6wins+0.03per pick55cpaid+28.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xa2dc…b624backed Over45c999.99$450 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4501735.3%6 W · 11 L+0.3wins+0.02per pick33cpaid+30.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6f5…d7aabacked Under39c987$385 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$602.07366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+36%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1dd8…757abacked Over80c952$762 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$761.610%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf955…bb33backed Under20c946$189 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$756.8250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+150%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf1b8…84e3backed Under20c940$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7521100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.80per pick20cpaid+400%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xaefa…f98ebacked Under48c938$450 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$487.9250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+4.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa151…13b4backed Over80c930$744 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74410%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8718…6741backed Over61c882$538 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$538.0220%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde9c…b418backed Over80c863$690 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$690.410%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x22f2…90d7backed Under19c852$162 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$690.12560%3 W · 2 L+1.1wins+0.22per pick38cpaid+71.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5395…9d41backed Under20c814$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$651.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.80per pick20cpaid+400%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xb890…a592backed Over79c804$635 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$635.16250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-24.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1624…bf63backed Under46c756.88$351 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$405.7113139.7%52 W · 79 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-28.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x354c…b301backed Under39c755$298 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$457.4250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+26.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x03a3…fdf4backed Over80c733$586 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$586.410%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9ac7…78c7backed Under18c731$132 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$599.421100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.82per pick18cpaid+455.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xd70e…0ac1backed Over79c723$571 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$571.1710%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xce65…66fdbacked Under20c721$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$576.8366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.41per pick26cpaid+154.4%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa04f…15babacked Under19c706$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$571.861100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.81per pick19cpaid+426.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xdaa1…eb3abacked Under20c697$139 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$557.6366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.9wins+0.31per pick36cpaid+113.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x8fbd…1598backed Under21c690$145 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$545.11100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.79per pick21cpaid+376.2%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xec92…1214backed Under39c687$268 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$419.07580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.29per pick51cpaid+64.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x3a6f…deaebacked Under21c684$144 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$540.36450%2 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+84.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x86c5…4c23backed Under20c674$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$539.2250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick24cpaid+150%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9f66…ad61backed Under48c672$323 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$349.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x43d5…2e11backed Under39c663$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$404.43366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick44cpaid+36%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x3a97…66f5backed Under61c657.17$400 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$257.171100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+64.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x88c4…758bbacked Under21c645$135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$509.55366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+104.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x293b…c83bbacked Over52c633$329 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$329.1630%0 W · 3 L-1.3wins-0.42per pick42cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x5372…5f61backed Under48c633$304 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$329.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xadbd…93f9backed Under20c627$125 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501.6475%3 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.29per pick46cpaid+97.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xce55…1796backed Under18c627$113 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$514.14366.7%2 W · 1 L+1.1wins+0.37per pick30cpaid+175.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6619…703ebacked Over80c625$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50018958.2%110 W · 79 L-6.5wins-0.03per pick62cpaid-2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1fa8…2bcdbacked Under39c619$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$377.592100%2 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.43per pick57cpaid+94.9%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x33dc…a539backed Under19c617$117 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$499.771100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.81per pick19cpaid+426.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x84f3…e6aabacked Under18c611$110 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$501.02333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.07per pick40cpaid+85.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17be…7a33backed Over61c610$372 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.110%0 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.61per pick61cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x6e36…2479backed Over80c601$481 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480.810%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x4b72…cd8ebacked Over80c597$478 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$477.620%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7407…19bebacked Over80c584$467 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$467.210%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xf92a…9134backed Over79c582$461 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$460.53250%1 W · 1 L-0.6wins-0.28per pick78cpaid-35.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x82aa…2393backed Over52c574$298 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$298.48450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe3de…5339backed Under20c571$114 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$456.82100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.57per pick43cpaid+225.8%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xcf7f…db83backed Under48c566$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$294.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8151…3421backed Over80c566$453 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$452.820%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x06d8…4c30backed Over80c560$448 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$44820%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x8697…4165backed Under48c560$269 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$291.21100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+108.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xfec9…b7c0backed Under20c556$111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$444.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.80per pick20cpaid+400%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x246f…0ab2backed Under48c545$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$283.4333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-30.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeda0…7dffbacked Over70c542.7$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$378.44619.6%9 W · 37 L-5.9wins-0.13per pick32cpaid-54.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0x4559…f02bbacked Over80c539$431 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$431.220%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xa2b1…0005backed Under19c536$102 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$434.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.81per pick19cpaid+426.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf0a8…0c57backed Over52c529$275 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$275.0830%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xbf57…588ebacked Under20c525$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$420580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.25per pick55cpaid+96.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa44b…eb27backed Over80c498$398 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$398.420%0 W · 2 L-1.4wins-0.72per pick72cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xb0b1…4336backed Under20c483$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$386.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.80per pick20cpaid+400%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9859…0176backed Under20c479$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$383.22100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.51per pick49cpaid+214.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7f0d…1683backed Under18c470$85 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$385.41100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.82per pick18cpaid+455.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x05f2…95debacked Over80c467$374 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$373.6366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick75cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ac7…dc0bbacked Under20c467$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$373.6250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.26per pick25cpaid+150%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x60b3…55cfbacked Under20c461$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$368.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.80per pick20cpaid+400%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0bd6…019dbacked Under21c461$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$364.19250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x8401…a498backed Under20c460$92 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3682100%2 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.54per pick47cpaid+218.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x56ff…81a0backed Over78c459.4$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.333966.7%26 W · 13 L+1.4wins+0.04per pick63cpaid+12.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7155…d866backed Under39c447$174 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$272.672100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.62per pick38cpaid+163.3%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x8e5a…154cbacked Over49c410.66$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$199.998955.1%49 W · 40 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xba26…23c9backed Over78c400$312 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$31211056.4%62 W · 48 L+3.5wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+1.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xe87e…4f70backed Over52c398$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$206.96450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-14.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xaa8d…fc01backed Over80c397$318 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$317.6366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick69cpaid+8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x036f…31a9backed Under18c394.44$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$323.441100%1 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.82per pick18cpaid+455.6%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa40d…f4d0backed Over79c394$311 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$311.261464.3%9 W · 5 L+0.8wins+0.05per pick59cpaid+15%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xccc2…271abacked Under48c388$186 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$201.76250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.20per pick31cpaid+4.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd22a…ac22backed Under21c367$76 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$290.53333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid+60%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d58…34e0backed Under18c363$65 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$298.262100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+258.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x6558…e485backed Under21c357$75 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$282.03250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.25per pick26cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xab21…4b87backed Over79c357$282 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.0310%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.79per pick79cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x68ba…0e6abacked Over80c338$270 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.4250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid+31.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfb97…b54dbacked Over80c320$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+43.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8d24…a2e9backed Under20c320$64 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$256333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick43cpaid+66.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2145…1e5dbacked Over80c320$256 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$256250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid+35.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd008…e9dbbacked Over80c314$251 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$251.210%0 W · 1 L-0.8wins-0.80per pick80cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.