TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Hamburger SV vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: Both Teams to Score

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
Polymarket published no figure
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$56,701

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $56,701 TailMyPicks’s own total, because the venue published none.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 159 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xf588…2b81backed No45c1,527$694 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$832.3219139.8%76 W · 115 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-29.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb767…9b51backed No52c1,391$723 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$667.683100%3 W · 0 L+1.1wins+0.36per pick64cpaid+60.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xba6f…8cc1backed Yes36c1,356$488 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$488.16333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick45cpaid-54.3%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe24a…fc69backed No53c1,293$685 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$608.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1d94…9100backed No40c1,287$515 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$771.7776234.8%265 W · 497 L+9.4wins+0.01per pick34cpaid+2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05a2…468cbacked No44c1,200$522 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$677.99837.5%3 W · 5 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick42cpaid-4.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7eae…3562backed No63c1,149$724 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$425.131100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x88c4…758bbacked Yes38c1,055$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.9366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.23per pick44cpaid+104.4%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x1056…5b18backed Yes37c1,021$378 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$377.7710%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4d58…34e0backed No64c1,008$645 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$362.882100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+258.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x0fe6…d8e3backed Yes37c988$366 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365.56250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-31.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xef37…f2bcbacked Yes47c985$463 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$462.95366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.24per pick42cpaid+133.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9be1…cb56backed No53c977$518 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$459.191100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.47per pick53cpaid+88.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd2c3…9cefbacked Yes37c970$359 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.9250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.13per pick37cpaid+32.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xcae4…ccecbacked No52c960$499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$460.81100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbcf8…0657backed No52c912$474 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$437.762100%2 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.41per pick59cpaid+71.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xbf49…6cfebacked Yes37c896$332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$331.5210%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x367b…48dabacked Yes48c883$424 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$423.8410%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x9e17…0d52backed Yes48c880$422 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$422.4333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick38cpaid-12.3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x722f…f17fbacked No63c859$541 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$317.831100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd569…3037backed No52c811$422 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$389.281100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad90…9090backed No63c792$499 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.042100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.59per pick41cpaid+242.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe704…7558backed Yes58c787.82$460 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$46017855.6%99 W · 79 L+0.4wins0.00per pick55cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xce16…b18ebacked Yes48c784$376 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$376.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x8a16…0c03backed Yes48c761$365 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$365.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xaa8d…fc01backed No52c746$388 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$358.08366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick69cpaid+8.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc112…f582backed Yes48c746$358 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$358.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7ff1…85cdbacked Yes48c736$353 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$353.2820%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6813…39e6backed Yes48c703$334 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$334.2620%0 W · 2 L-0.7wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x2b34…b202backed Yes54c702.82$381 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$380.726331.7%20 W · 43 L-7.6wins-0.12per pick44cpaid-32%equal weight40-0.09 edge/pick
0xcabd…3764backed No63c688$433 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$254.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x412a…802cbacked Yes60c671.12$403 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$402.671127.3%3 W · 8 L-2.6wins-0.23per pick51cpaid-51.3%equal weight42-0.07 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked No56c661.75$369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$293.212,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe309…44c2backed No52c661$344 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$317.28250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick56cpaid-3.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xea90…0f8fbacked Yes37c649$240 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$240.1310%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xce2b…08fabacked Yes61c622.94$380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38038055.8%212 W · 168 L-0.9wins0.00per pick56cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x7f46…01b1backed No62c613$380 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$232.942100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick50cpaid+112.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5661…ef17backed Yes48c601$288 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$288.4820%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x4e9c…d1bebacked Yes48c586$281 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$281.28425%1 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick32cpaid+25%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8b45…836ebacked No63c578$364 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$213.863100%3 W · 0 L+1.4wins+0.46per pick54cpaid+154.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x6789…52f9backed Yes38c541$206 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$205.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x3684…9669backed Yes48c541$260 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.6820%0 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.46per pick46cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xf0a8…0c57backed Yes47c515$242 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.0530%0 W · 3 L-1.6wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xe87e…4f70backed No52c479$249 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$229.92450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-14.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x19d3…a652backed Yes62c475.19$293 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$292.62450%2 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-15.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xad89…f6e1backed Yes40c455.51$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.21662.5%10 W · 6 L+3.3wins+0.21per pick42cpaid+54.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xe4d9…2a4ebacked No52c454$236 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$217.923100%3 W · 0 L+1.6wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+177.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0xaae6…3d05backed No52c452$235 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$216.961100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc319…6baabacked No63c445$280 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$164.651100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xfb97…b54dbacked No62c438$272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.44366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick60cpaid+43.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x090c…3c25backed Yes48c426$204 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$204.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0b4f…3b33backed No63c416$262 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$153.921100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd137…ceacbacked Yes48c398$191 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$191.0420%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.39per pick39cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xde9f…cd36backed No52c398$207 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.04250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick57cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6177…c22abacked Yes48c390$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$187.2250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.07per pick44cpaid+28.2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x1b47…8191backed No63c384$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$142.08250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.05per pick45cpaid-20.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd29f…26b4backed Yes37c384$142 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$142.08250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid+28.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xff5d…4e58backed No64c349$223 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.642100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+53.9%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x43d7…54a7backed No52c345$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$165.6250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.07per pick56cpaid-3.8%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xbb28…74f4backed Yes37c342$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.5420%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x02ea…220cbacked Yes59c339.5$200 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2005339.6%21 W · 32 L+0.3wins+0.01per pick39cpaid-7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x44a1…bd21backed No40c325.69$130 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$195.413327.3%9 W · 24 L+1.7wins+0.05per pick22cpaid-0.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3143…cd52backed No53c318$169 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$149.46250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9c22…50e1backed No62c315$195 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.38per pick62cpaid+61.3%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xd22a…ac22backed Yes48c308$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.84333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid+60%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2060…9186backed No42c302.02$127 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$175.174658.7%27 W · 19 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick56cpaid+8.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xb2eb…5751backed Yes37c275$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.75580%4 W · 1 L+1.2wins+0.24per pick56cpaid+42.1%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed No40c264.83$107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$157.83,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x177a…aa8ebacked No63c263$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97.311100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.37per pick63cpaid+58.7%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x9778…1d7bbacked Yes48c262$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$125.7620%0 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.38per pick38cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xab92…15ddbacked No52c257$134 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.36450%2 W · 2 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-14%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6d48…d6f1backed No52c255$133 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$122.4250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-3.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x12ef…f5cebacked No63c240$151 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.8333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.12per pick46cpaid-47.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa6a…21c3backed Yes37c240$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$88.8333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-39.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x385f…3c30backed Yes48c236$113 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$113.2810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2c2e…a948backed Yes42c235.67$99 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98.984656.5%26 W · 20 L+4.7wins+0.10per pick46cpaid+27%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x2950…ffeabacked Yes48c221$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.0810%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdc3c…d42ebacked Yes37c210$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.7450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+65.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7238…e52dbacked No52c209$109 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$100.321100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4346…2241backed No52c208$108 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$99.841100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x612d…3fd1backed No63c208$131 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$76.962100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.36per pick65cpaid+55.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x5dd2…ae40backed No52c202$105 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.96366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.6wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+13.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x965d…7773backed Yes37c200$74 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4a59…a320backed No63c200$126 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$742100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.50per pick51cpaid+110.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x5b74…93f7backed Yes48c197$95 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.5630%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd5fa…f3f8backed No62c197$122 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$74.86250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5885…6562backed Yes38c193$73 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$73.34250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-25.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc3c9…af45backed Yes48c187$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.7640%0 W · 4 L-1.8wins-0.44per pick44cpaid-100%equal weight43-0.06 edge/pick
0xbf57…588ebacked No52c184$96 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$88.32580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.25per pick55cpaid+96.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe071…f836backed Yes53c182.27$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.110057%57 W · 43 L+2.4wins+0.02per pick55cpaid+11.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa23f…a64ebacked Yes45c175$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$78.38664%55 W · 31 L+5.8wins+0.07per pick57cpaid+13.9%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x374b…9a1fbacked No52c172$89 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$82.56333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.11per pick45cpaid-35.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x76f8…5145backed Yes37c170$63 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$62.910%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x8e5a…154cbacked Yes59c169.49$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1008955.1%49 W · 40 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick50cpaid+11.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x4138…6a24backed Yes62c161$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$99.822185.7%18 W · 3 L+3.2wins+0.15per pick70cpaid+23.5%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcdb8…f285backed Yes48c159$76 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$76.32450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-12.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe54d…c913backed No52c152$79 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$72.96250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-3.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xbb7c…3a5bbacked No49c146.71$71 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$75.31172.7%8 W · 3 L+2.0wins+0.18per pick55cpaid+43.4%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x4901…8832backed Yes36c136.62$49 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$49.18633.3%2 W · 4 L+0.9wins+0.15per pick18cpaid+135.7%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x49ca…5944backed Yes38c131.58$50 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$509067.8%61 W · 29 L+4.4wins+0.05per pick63cpaid+5.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.