Bundesliga · resolved market
Spread: Bayer 04 Leverkusen (-1.5)
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8c250703c35050356d64c0e8541e76b57ddf92800d95a0b5715381cd7c2ca97f
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Hamburger SVof Bayer 04 Leverkusen, Hamburger SV
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $8,597
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $7,937
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $8,597 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 35 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x2005…75eabacked Hamburger SV | 76c | 4,208$3,187 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,020.26 | 2,538 | 39.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L | -8.1wins | 0.00per pick | 40cpaid | -11.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6e8…bfbbbacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 25c | 1,999$500 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$499.75 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd43…88d7backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 20c | 1,518$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +2.6wins | +0.24per pick | 22cpaid | +155.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf588…2b81backed Hamburger SV | 78c | 1,059$825 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$234.65 | 191 | 39.8%76 W · 115 L | -4.2wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeda0…7dffbacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 26c | 984.12$255 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.37 | 46 | 19.6%9 W · 37 L | -5.9wins | -0.13per pick | 32cpaid | -54.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x258f…4493backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 25c | 472$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118 | 74 | 24.3%18 W · 56 L | -1.2wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204f…5e14backed Hamburger SV | 75c | 395.7$295 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.76 | 3,284 | 42.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L | -74.0wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -18.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe706…89bcbacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 25c | 394.26$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 118 | 43.2%51 W · 67 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcd94…6b1ebacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 31c | 321.45$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa710…f1ccbacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 25c | 293.86$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.67 | 179 | 30.2%54 W · 125 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6c0b…43cbbacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 25c | 286.66$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.87 | 228 | 29.4%67 W · 161 L | +1.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb966…cac6backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 20c | 197.15$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 36 | 33.3%12 W · 24 L | +1.4wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | +12.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4133…5e70backed Hamburger SV | 74c | 189.56$140 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.28 | 751 | 42.5%319 W · 432 L | -26.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6ac5…4b6ebacked Hamburger SV | 71c | 156$111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.4 | 341 | 44.6%152 W · 189 L | -8.1wins | -0.02per pick | 47cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb7…7a94backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 26c | 114.81$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 109 | 46.8%51 W · 58 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28a2…91a4backed Hamburger SV | 75c | 101$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.25 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -19.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c25…606ebacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 10c | 100$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 27cpaid | +75.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5124…91bbbacked Hamburger SV | 70c | 100$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30 | 78 | 47.4%37 W · 41 L | +1.0wins | +0.01per pick | 46cpaid | +12.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6008…a80bbacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 25c | 99.6$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.9 | 373 | 44.5%166 W · 207 L | -15.1wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x71c1…e358backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 26c | 96.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 188 | 40.4%76 W · 112 L | +7.9wins | +0.04per pick | 36cpaid | +10.2%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x480d…298cbacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 26c | 96.15$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0c0…07d8backed Hamburger SV | 76c | 92$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.08 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 67cpaid | +13.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1889…0714backed Hamburger SV | 74c | 70$52 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.2 | 70 | 52.9%37 W · 33 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -11.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdcf7…bcbebacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 22c | 67.31$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.81 | 126 | 57.9%73 W · 53 L | +9.9wins | +0.08per pick | 50cpaid | +12.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x3f1f…feaebacked Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 21c | 61.86$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.87 | 32 | 34.4%11 W · 21 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa870…2cd1backed Hamburger SV | 73c | 54.79$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$14.79 | 112 | 81.3%91 W · 21 L | +6.1wins | +0.05per pick | 76cpaid | +7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…1973backed Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 28c | 53.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 50 | 32%16 W · 34 L | -3.1wins | -0.06per pick | 38cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6c82…6150backed Hamburger SV | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 104 | 54.8%57 W · 47 L | -1.5wins | -0.01per pick | 56cpaid | -3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9773…67e8backed Hamburger SV | 76c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +41%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x77bc…b91bbacked Hamburger SV | 75c | 49.04$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.26 | 1,305 | 40.8%532 W · 773 L | -42.3wins | -0.03per pick | 44cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8bed…6b26backed Hamburger SV | 76c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.2 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.10per pick | 74cpaid | +15.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x90b5…4e3dbacked Hamburger SV | 77c | 23.92$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.42 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +2.8wins | +0.13per pick | 48cpaid | +37%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x985d…e14fbacked Hamburger SV | 76c | 21.83$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.14 | 32 | 31.3%10 W · 22 L | -2.7wins | -0.08per pick | 40cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4bb5…fe86backed Hamburger SV | 79c | 21.2$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee75…f59abacked Hamburger SV | 77c | 19.14$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.35 | 9 | 77.8%7 W · 2 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 62cpaid | +27.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Spread: Bayer 04 Leverkusen (-1.5)this page
- Hamburger SV vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: Both Teams to ScoreNo won
- Hamburger SV vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 1.5Under won
- Hamburger SV vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 2.5Under won
- Hamburger SV vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 3.5Under won
- Hamburger SV vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 4.5Under won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.