TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Bundesliga · resolved market

Hamburger SV vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 3.5

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Underof Over, Under
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
Bundesligaevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$55,439
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$55,369

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $55,439 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 219 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Bundesliga is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x2005…75eabacked Over6c4,859$294 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$293.532,53839.8%1,009 W · 1,529 L-8.1wins0.00per pick40cpaid-11.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf588…2b81backed Over6c3,176$187 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$186.8619139.8%76 W · 115 L-4.2wins-0.02per pick42cpaid-29.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf7a9…fee3backed Under66c1,800$1,188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$612366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.16per pick51cpaid-3.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x789e…cf5ebacked Under69c1,648$1,135 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$513.371100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.31per pick69cpaid+45.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x775e…6541backed Over33c1,500$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$494.998336.1%30 W · 53 L-3.0wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-10.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6509…4674backed Over35c1,479$510 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$510.410%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.35per pick35cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6c65…5ad5backed Under60c1,305$783 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$522250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick47cpaid-16.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x2934…9a60backed Over34c1,182$402 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$401.8810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x78ba…f02dbacked Over34c1,179$401 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$400.8610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd5fa…f3f8backed Over34c1,161$395 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$394.74250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins+0.02per pick48cpaid-19.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3c86…b75ebacked Under66c1,114$735 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$378.761100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4133…5e70backed Under65c1,072$699 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$372.4275142.5%319 W · 432 L-26.7wins-0.04per pick46cpaid-14.2%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x0ad5…6f41backed Under66c974$643 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$331.161100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x523d…cc1dbacked Over40c967$387 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$386.810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xabeb…7a78backed Over34c964$328 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$327.7620%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xd5e7…ebdcbacked Under67c935$626 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$308.55333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.25per pick59cpaid-50.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x0de5…d01cbacked Under66c922$609 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$313.482100%2 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.27per pick73cpaid+39%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0f5c…91bfbacked Over33c917$303 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$302.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bcb…f59bbacked Over34c907$308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$308.3820%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.30per pick30cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe2e0…ad86backed Under66c903$596 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$307.021100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf51b…bf74backed Over34c901$306 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$306.3420%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbcac…f545backed Over33c857$283 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$282.81250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick35cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x05f2…95debacked Under67c840$563 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$277.2366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.08per pick75cpaid-7.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3eee…e8b6backed Under68c816$555 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.1210945.9%50 W · 59 L-2.9wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-1.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0ccb…6c69backed Over33c815$271 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$270.6910%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x0bd6…019dbacked Over35c812$284 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$284.2250%1 W · 1 L+0.4wins+0.22per pick28cpaid+138.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1b9f…c0d4backed Over34c774$263 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$263.1610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2a10…e442backed Over34c763$259 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$259.4210%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5565…9184backed Under66c752$496 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$255.68250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-24.2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6f9a…6fb2backed Under66c743$490 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$252.621100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf8d9…08d2backed Over47c740$348 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$347.8425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.24per pick49cpaid-65.3%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0xffa1…15bdbacked Over33c737$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$243.21250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.02per pick53cpaid-30.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xe87e…4f70backed Under67c737$494 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$243.21450%2 W · 2 L0.0wins+0.01per pick49cpaid-14.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xf888…1c04backed Over33c717$237 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$236.6110%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4b72…cd8ebacked Over33c671$224 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$223.9920%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.57per pick57cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xbf57…588ebacked Under66c665$439 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$226.1580%4 W · 1 L+1.3wins+0.25per pick55cpaid+96.2%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x319c…4a94backed Under66c655$432 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$222.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa938…a1ffbacked Under66c632$417 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$214.88333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.06per pick40cpaid-49.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x381c…dae1backed Under66c605$399 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.71100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Under67c599.62$402 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$197.243,28442.6%1,399 W · 1,885 L-74.0wins-0.02per pick45cpaid-18.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x848d…76c1backed Under56c588$327 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$261.28250%1 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.09per pick59cpaid-10%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xb890…a592backed Under66c563$372 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$191.42250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.23per pick73cpaid-24.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf351…6284backed Over34c559$190 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$190.0610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x605c…83dcbacked Under66c555$366 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$188.72100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.49per pick52cpaid+110.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x01dd…fb46backed Under67c551$369 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$181.83366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick59cpaid+17.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x59ad…e59abacked Over33c537$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.21250%1 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-32.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4d17…1e5ebacked Under67c537$360 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$177.211100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.33per pick67cpaid+49.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf2a8…2a44backed Over34c529$180 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$179.86250%1 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.15per pick36cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf977…1690backed Over34c522$177 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.4810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5bb6…6d5fbacked Under67c521$349 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.93250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.10per pick40cpaid-25.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7270…add3backed Over45c511$230 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$229.95250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+35.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0042…e62fbacked Under66c509$336 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$173.061100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x04d4…be7cbacked Over34c504$171 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$171.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9bbc…d620backed Under66c504$333 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.362100%2 W · 0 L+1.2wins+0.58per pick43cpaid+238.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x320f…2261backed Under66c500$330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1701100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xdc3c…d42ebacked Over34c495$168 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$168.3450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid+65.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x965d…7773backed Under65c477$310 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$166.95250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d23…aa07backed Over34c477$162 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$162.1830%0 W · 3 L-1.2wins-0.41per pick41cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x3c90…17fbbacked Over34c456$153 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$153.33366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick45cpaid+39.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x140d…a937backed Over22c455.74$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1001353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.7wins+0.06per pick48cpaid+4.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x89b2…0eb2backed Under56c452$253 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$198.881100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+78.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0257…6beabacked Over34c440$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$149.610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x154e…ed0cbacked Under66c436$288 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$148.241100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa1ec…46cebacked Over34c434$148 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$147.56250%1 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-23.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8dee…412bbacked Over35c431.37$150 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1508846.6%41 W · 47 L+3.8wins+0.04per pick42cpaid+5.1%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x18fa…3730backed Under55c421$232 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$189.451100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.45per pick55cpaid+81.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x6546…c454backed Under66c416$275 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$141.442100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.33per pick68cpaid+48.2%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x5aca…cad6backed Over48c409$196 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$196.3210%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3a6f…deaebacked Over33c407$134 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$134.31450%2 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.24per pick26cpaid+84.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x5ae0…4590backed Under53c395$209 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$185.65250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-5.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xaa6a…21c3backed Under55c388$213 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$174.6333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.3wins-0.10per pick44cpaid-39.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1d94…7523backed Under66c387$255 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$131.581100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbc70…50c0backed Under65c373$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130.781100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.35per pick65cpaid+54%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1b63…bb9cbacked Over34c373$127 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126.82450%2 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.05per pick55cpaid-31.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x43d5…2e11backed Under66c369$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$125.46366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.7wins+0.22per pick44cpaid+36%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x290d…9e42backed Over34c367$125 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$124.7820%0 W · 2 L-1.0wins-0.48per pick48cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x8d7c…a11bbacked Under66c363$240 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$123.42250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-24.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5e79…e974backed Under67c361$242 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$119.13250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick74cpaid-25.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x1063…1d3fbacked Under67c359$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$118.47366.7%2 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick69cpaid-7.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xad18…0b4fbacked Over28c357.14$100 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1003145.2%14 W · 17 L+0.5wins+0.02per pick43cpaid+7.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6a92…d2e9backed Over34c345$117 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$117.310%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa9e5…d252backed Under66c345$228 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$117.3366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.07per pick60cpaid-5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd6f5…d7aabacked Under66c337$222 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$114.58366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.3wins+0.11per pick56cpaid+36%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8e57…6c04backed Over34c337$115 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$114.5810%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.34per pick34cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x354c…b301backed Over44c330$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.2250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick42cpaid+26.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa9bd…4d4cbacked Over40c327$131 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$130.810%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xeb18…2372backed Under52c322$167 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$154.561100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf085…a01fbacked Under66c312$206 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$106.081100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x910a…91a9backed Over34c312$106 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$106.08450%2 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.14per pick64cpaid-30%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xd22a…ac22backed Over34c300$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$102333.3%1 W · 2 L0.0wins-0.01per pick34cpaid+60%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc0b2…9d96backed Over34c300$102 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10220%0 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xa9d3…9d4bbacked Over31c300$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9324258.7%142 W · 100 L+11.2wins+0.05per pick54cpaid+8.5%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xc5cf…90e6backed Under66c300$198 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1022100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick53cpaid+104%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x611f…1f84backed Over33c292$96 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.3610%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.33per pick33cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfcb5…9bf1backed Over35c289.18$101 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$101.2133340.8%136 W · 197 L-14.3wins-0.04per pick45cpaid-14.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xb86e…e0ecbacked Under66c285$188 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.9366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick63cpaid-3.2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5179…2b29backed Over31c283.56$88 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$87.922854.8%125 W · 103 L+9.1wins+0.04per pick51cpaid+6.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x53b7…4146backed Under66c283$187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$96.221100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xec92…1214backed Over45c280$126 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$126580%4 W · 1 L+1.5wins+0.29per pick51cpaid+64.7%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x0278…00e6backed Over33c272$90 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.76250%1 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.24per pick27cpaid+150%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Bundesliga and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.