TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xe2e0…ad86

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
56
Categories scored
19
Categories below 50
10

Best Category: Token Launches, grading 54 out of 100 (+0.04 per pick).

Best Category Token Launches at 54 out of 100; worst Us Midterms at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT1338.5%5 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-9.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 13 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$134Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+58.7%+$78.81
Will a new country join the Abraham Accords by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$342Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$342.38
U.S. evacuates Baghdad Embassy by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$46.28
Will Iran conduct a military action against Israel on March 23, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$225Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 30, 2026, EDT+150%+$337.8
Will Khamenei tweet again on March 22, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$247Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$246.96
Hezbollah strike on Israel by March 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$172Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 2, 2026, EST+284.6%+$488.4
Will Israel strike 2 countries in February 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$324Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$324.28
Iran Strike on Israel by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$548Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$548.08
Nothing Ever Happens: Israel Editionbacked Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$93Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$92.8
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$192Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 28, 2026, EST-100%-$192.15
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$262Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 15, 2026, EST-100%-$262.26
Will Israel strike Gaza on February 7, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)58c$245Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 9, 2026, EST+72.4%+$177.24
Will Israel strike Lebanon on February 4, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$160Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 6, 2026, EST+112.8%+$180.2
All 13 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved May 23, 2026, EDT742.9%3 W · 4 L0.0wins-0.01per pick43cpaid-40.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Movies — the 7 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "SAKAMOTO DAYS" win Best New Series at the 2026 Crunchyroll Anime Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$1,296Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 23, 2026, EDT+49.3%+$638.22
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 180m and 190m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.61
Will "Project Hail Mary" score at least 70 on the Rotten Tomatoes Tomatometer?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$268Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$268.32
Will "One Battle After Another" win 3 or fewer awards at the Oscars?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.84
Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$178Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$69.16
Will SNL50: The Anniversary Special win Best Producer of Sketch & Stand-Up TV at the 37th PGA Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 1, 2026, EST-100%-$46.97
Will Liz Patrick - SNL50: The Anniversary Special win Best Director of Variety at the 78th DGA Awards?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$322Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 8, 2026, EST+29.9%+$96.14
All 7 picks, newest first.
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT650%3 W · 3 L+0.6wins+0.10per pick40cpaid+9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
AI — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

World Politics Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT560%3 W · 2 L+0.6wins+0.11per pick49cpaid+45.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
World Politics — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved May 18, 2026, EDT540%2 W · 3 L+0.2wins+0.03per pick37cpaid-34.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Weather — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Token Launches Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.52per pick48cpaid+257.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Token Launches — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Token Launches, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Gensyn FDV above $200M one day after launch?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$528Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+26.6%+$140.28
Will USD.AI launch a token by March 31?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$64Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 1, 2026, EDT+488.2%+$312.91
All 2 picks, newest first.
Premier League Inactivelast resolved Mar 3, 2026, EST2100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.35per pick66cpaid+57.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Premier League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bristol City FC win on 2026-02-14?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$353Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 3, 2026, EST+85.2%+$300.38
Will Charlton Athletic FC vs. Portsmouth FC end in a draw?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$444Won — open this pick on its own pageFeb 17, 2026, EST+29.9%+$132.48
All 2 picks, newest first.
Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.12per pick38cpaid-2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NFL Inactivelast resolved Feb 9, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid-26.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
NFL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NFL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Other European Leagues Inactivelast resolved Mar 7, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.13per pick63cpaid0%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Other European Leagues — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Other European Leagues, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Motherwell FC win on 2026-02-04?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+100%+$43.5
Aberdeen FC vs. Celtic FC: Both Teams to Scorebacked No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$220Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST-100%-$220.4
All 2 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST20%0 W · 2 L-1.1wins-0.54per pick54cpaid-100%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.9wins+0.87per pick13cpaid+669.2%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+669.2%+$180.96
All 1 picks, newest first.
Bundesliga Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+51.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Bundesliga — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Bundesliga, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Hamburger SV vs. Bayer 04 Leverkusen: O/U 3.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$596Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 4, 2026, EST+51.5%+$307.02
All 1 picks, newest first.
Space Inactivelast resolved Jan 29, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Space — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Space, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SpaceX have 12 or more launches in January?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageJan 29, 2026, EST-100%-$24.29
All 1 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Mar 9, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Donald Trump post 140-159 Truth Social posts from March 3 to March 10, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.95
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 20, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.23per pick23cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Spread: Southern Illinois Salukis (-3.5)backed Evansville Aces · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$331Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$330.74
All 1 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Mar 9, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
MLB — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Dominican Republic advance to the Knockout Stages of the 2026 World Baseball Classic final?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$143Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$143.21
All 1 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved May 23, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.51per pick51cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.52per pick52cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$824Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$824.2
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.