Weather · resolved market
Will there be 12-14 inches of snow in NYC in January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x20a1a446e4100b221ffd7bfa80c38cc1b3948a79a67405675a9960623fdeed04
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $46,379
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $47,731
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $46,379 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8c10…d7b3backed Yes | 77c | 3,431$2,629 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$802.03 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +397.5%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2950…ffeabacked Yes | 75c | 1,508$1,124 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$384.44 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 52cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd727…6e2ebacked No | 17c | 1,202$204 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.34 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.6wins | -0.18per pick | 40cpaid | -69.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x82a7…afb5backed No | 28c | 1,152$318 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$317.85 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e7e…7dfdbacked No | 28c | 1,002$282 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.66 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7b23…0d60backed Yes | 43c | 860$370 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$490.2 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 56cpaid | -27.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1100…815ebacked Yes | 77c | 850$655 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$195.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9279…9ca7backed No | 29c | 825$237 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.87 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -2.2wins | -0.24per pick | 47cpaid | -63%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe24a…fc69backed Yes | 70c | 775$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$232.5 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54d5…b5cebacked No | 15c | 750$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.5 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 35cpaid | +21.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cbc…3b01backed No | 5c | 728.29$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.59 | 39 | 15.4%6 W · 33 L | -0.8wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -42%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb86e…e0ecbacked Yes | 39c | 705$275 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$430.05 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +16.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d42…f124backed No | 26c | 703.05$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.18 | 523 | 22.6%118 W · 405 L | -18.0wins | -0.03per pick | 26cpaid | -44.1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87fd…66bcbacked No | 57c | 674$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.18 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.06per pick | 35cpaid | +92.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xadbd…93f9backed No | 16c | 659$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.44 | 13 | 46.2%6 W · 7 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 46cpaid | -11.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe95b…1f15backed No | 17c | 637$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.29 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.32per pick | 43cpaid | +73.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3c90…17fbbacked Yes | 71c | 635$451 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$184.15 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 51cpaid | -20.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0536…a3c9backed No | 40c | 630.74$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$250.04 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd29f…26b4backed No | 24c | 547$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.52 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 40cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xdd07…0058backed No | 23c | 544$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.12 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9d22…da8bbacked Yes | 78c | 531$414 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$116.82 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.3wins | -0.10per pick | 49cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ae…bb88backed Yes | 72c | 520$374 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$145.6 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -14.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc5c8…e61bbacked Yes | 39c | 482$188 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$294.02 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -2.1wins | -0.24per pick | 35cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa78e…74b0backed No | 61c | 482$294 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$294.02 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 55cpaid | +46.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x66f2…2badbacked No | 17c | 466$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.22 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.28per pick | 45cpaid | -76.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x23aa…80bcbacked No | 5c | 461.64$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.05 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2e0…ad86backed No | 18c | 460$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.8 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6a…21c3backed No | 61c | 430$262 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$262.3 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb00b…fbcabacked Yes | 71c | 418$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$121.22 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 42cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x965d…7773backed No | 29c | 418$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.22 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | +2.1wins | +0.11per pick | 50cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x43d5…2e11backed No | 24c | 404$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.96 | 19 | 52.6%10 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 50cpaid | +15.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe1cb…933ebacked Yes | 38c | 351$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$217.62 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -13%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f51…c63cbacked No | 62c | 351$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.62 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fb5…cabdbacked Yes | 73c | 333.48$243 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$90.61 | 27 | 40.7%11 W · 16 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac89…ba4cbacked No | 17c | 318$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.06 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8c42…1616backed No | 22c | 316$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.52 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.2wins | +0.20per pick | 44cpaid | +56.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x95e8…6f21backed Yes | 70c | 297$208 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$89.1 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.19per pick | 61cpaid | +41.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1502…be53backed No | 61c | 275$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$167.75 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -0.6wins | -0.05per pick | 32cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe70…e8e9backed No | 23c | 260$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.8 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.09per pick | 29cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xabeb…7a78backed Yes | 72c | 247$178 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69.16 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.1wins | -0.19per pick | 52cpaid | -45.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0b4f…3b33backed Yes | 77c | 233$179 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.59 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -2.7wins | -0.21per pick | 52cpaid | -56.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 40c | 226.24$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.75 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x646f…23c3backed No | 28c | 222$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.16 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57ab…434bbacked No | 22c | 215$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.3 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.09per pick | 45cpaid | -48.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa849…c825backed No | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.50per pick | 50cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 37c | 200$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 39c | 195.6$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.74 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6813…39e6backed No | 15c | 188$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.2 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1f94…519ebacked No | 27c | 165.31$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 70c | 165.19$116 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.43 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ca…1383backed No | 8c | 154.4$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.79 | 95 | 23.2%22 W · 73 L | -1.4wins | -0.01per pick | 25cpaid | -1.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbb50…7bfcbacked No | 11c | 145.87$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.94 | 172 | 43.6%75 W · 97 L | +5.4wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +6.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfee6…7289backed No | 57c | 128$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.96 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 57cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdde0…32f9backed No | 9c | 113.16$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda44…2e5abacked Yes | 45c | 108.36$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.64 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -54%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x95ba…6a41backed Yes | 79c | 100$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.21per pick | 79cpaid | +26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 12c | 98.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb6ee…9238backed No | 17c | 97$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.49 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 33cpaid | -20.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 11c | 92.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.52 | 926 | 2.5%23 W · 903 L | -379.9wins | -0.41per pick | 44cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 6-0.40 edge/pick |
| 0x1c26…6e31backed No | 12c | 85.94$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 860 | 50.9%438 W · 422 L | +29.9wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -1.8%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 31c | 83.37$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.93 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x673d…e929backed Yes | 77c | 79$61 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.17 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48f8…7febbacked No | 21c | 72$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7c…ccfdbacked Yes | 78c | 59.14$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.14 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5d2b…f025backed No | 57c | 58$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.06 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -23%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8975…ffe6backed Yes | 73c | 49.31$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.31 | 59 | 74.6%44 W · 15 L | +1.6wins | +0.03per pick | 72cpaid | +2.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x14ba…e6cebacked Yes | 71c | 45.77$33 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.07 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.5wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +36.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xad4a…20e0backed Yes | 50c | 30.26$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +99.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd8f8…0f11backed Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.4 | 966 | 20.7%200 W · 766 L | +59.8wins | +0.06per pick | 15cpaid | +96.3%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1838…29b4backed No | 51c | 25$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.71 | 963 | 13.7%132 W · 831 L | +33.9wins | +0.04per pick | 10cpaid | +35.6%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd92…3482backed Yes | 71c | 21$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.09 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.29per pick | 71cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x368a…996abacked Yes | 62c | 20.48$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +62%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf451…838abacked Yes | 73c | 16.44$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.44 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39c5…5635backed Yes | 77c | 15.21$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3.49 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be 12-14 inches of snow in NYC in January?this page
- Will there be 10-12 inches of snow in NYC in January?No won
- Will there be 14-16 inches of snow in NYC in January?No won
- Will there be 16 or more inches of snow in NYC in January?No won
- Will there be 6-8 inches of snow in NYC in January?No won
- Will there be 8-10 inches of snow in NYC in January?No won
- Will there be less than 6 inches of snow in NYC in January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.