Weather · resolved market
Will there be 14-16 inches of snow in NYC in January?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x823bf99b21d9f1e3b6fd0d3531f1bc274ae744c47983dcd3340b270c4f783529
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $16,306
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $15,466
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $16,306 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 38 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x874a…d584backed No | 61c | 856$522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$333.84 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.17per pick | 43cpaid | +28.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1b9f…c0d4backed Yes | 18c | 821$148 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$147.78 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 47cpaid | +3.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xce55…c888backed No | 60c | 591$355 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$236.4 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeab9…2ff1backed Yes | 40c | 591$236 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$236.4 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 49cpaid | +76.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x646f…23c3backed Yes | 11c | 551$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.61 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 41cpaid | -7.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad8…9756backed Yes | 39c | 525$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$204.75 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -22%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa22e…109cbacked Yes | 27c | 518$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.4 | 13 | 15.4%2 W · 11 L | -3.0wins | -0.23per pick | 39cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xab92…15ddbacked Yes | 39c | 514$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.46 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 45cpaid | +45.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6a…21c3backed Yes | 44c | 496$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.24 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -2.1wins | -0.14per pick | 47cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8de5…9416backed No | 56c | 496$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$218.24 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.2wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +37.5%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0536…a3c9backed Yes | 27c | 476.76$128 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$127.51 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 28cpaid | +16.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf977…1690backed Yes | 18c | 466$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.88 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -18.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd001…3ceabacked Yes | 18c | 436$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.48 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +2.8wins | +0.29per pick | 42cpaid | +88%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0285…59d6backed Yes | 18c | 421$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.78 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…3258backed No | 61c | 395$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$154.05 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b91…ae77backed Yes | 8c | 355.71$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.18 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 29cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf95…7865backed Yes | 16c | 326.56$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.05 | 199 | 37.7%75 W · 124 L | +4.9wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x973d…6b94backed Yes | 17c | 287.36$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe196…0ab5backed Yes | 14c | 262.03$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.19 | 268 | 34%91 W · 177 L | +4.8wins | +0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x720e…17b0backed Yes | 38c | 260.36$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a9…fee3backed Yes | 11c | 248$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.28 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 74c | 225.94$166 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.65 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 6c | 199.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 50 | 12%6 W · 44 L | +3.6wins | +0.07per pick | 5cpaid | +62%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7e60…c66abacked Yes | 21c | 199.57$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.04 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ef4…e2e9backed Yes | 15c | 130.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 27cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x486b…3ea7backed No | 61c | 130$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.7 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.8wins | -0.16per pick | 36cpaid | -67.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xda44…2e5abacked Yes | 43c | 108.53$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.15 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.6wins | -0.19per pick | 47cpaid | -54%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 73c | 93.36$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.17 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0xa7e0…7f71backed Yes | 28c | 90.71$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab26…9656backed Yes | 34c | 70$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 28 | 64.3%18 W · 10 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 63cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c90…cd7bbacked Yes | 28c | 67.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.82 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +4.9wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 76c | 65.21$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.41 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3c86…b75ebacked Yes | 39c | 61$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.79 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | -1.8wins | -0.14per pick | 45cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 37c | 47$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.45 | 2,823 | 11.2%316 W · 2,507 L | +17.7wins | +0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -3.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 33c | 43.8$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 158 | 18.4%29 W · 129 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9b7c…ccfdbacked Yes | 48c | 41.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 49cpaid | +34.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdf08…cf97backed No | 73c | 35.34$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.4 | 39 | 38.5%15 W · 24 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc4e8…2815backed Yes | 59c | 35.19$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.76 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +53%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 7 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be 14-16 inches of snow in NYC in January?this page
- Will there be 10-12 inches of snow in NYC in January?No won
- Will there be 12-14 inches of snow in NYC in January?Yes won
- Will there be 16 or more inches of snow in NYC in January?No won
- Will there be 6-8 inches of snow in NYC in January?No won
- Will there be 8-10 inches of snow in NYC in January?No won
- Will there be less than 6 inches of snow in NYC in January?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.