AI · resolved market
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x4a3ae5bc03b849fa2aae19b687428cc9cbf27ce27a966bacdc879fa067a62a2d
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $184,172
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $190,346
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $184,172 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 372 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed No | 44c | 10,084$4,435 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,648.92 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +11.0wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed No | 41c | 4,741$1,942 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,799.39 | 136 | 54.4%74 W · 62 L | +8.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 28c | 3,716$1,053 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,662.82 | 190 | 11.6%22 W · 168 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9690…f2d5backed No | 76c | 3,101$2,343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$757.99 | 64 | 39.1%25 W · 39 L | +4.4wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcd2c…a30ebacked Yes | 67c | 3,000$2,008 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,007.52 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc326…1db1backed No | 29c | 2,904$830 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,073.58 | 258 | 37.6%97 W · 161 L | +5.7wins | +0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -29.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e43…c324backed Yes | 24c | 2,561$613 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$613.02 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb89f…1c44backed No | 54c | 2,415$1,292 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,122.59 | 143 | 37.8%54 W · 89 L | +7.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -16.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked No | 19c | 1,864$345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,518.71 | 190 | 40.5%77 W · 113 L | +14.4wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5be7…46eebacked Yes | 36c | 1,849$663 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$662.86 | 20 | 35%7 W · 13 L | -1.3wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cac…6f43backed No | 79c | 1,693$1,331 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$361.58 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.15per pick | 32cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa347…2a40backed No | 66c | 1,617$1,067 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.78 | 25 | 20%5 W · 20 L | -5.8wins | -0.23per pick | 43cpaid | -71.4%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0x76aa…c4f4backed Yes | 48c | 1,448$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 66cpaid | -58.3%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x39a8…7d57backed Yes | 65c | 1,444$936 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$935.57 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -3.2wins | -0.18per pick | 51cpaid | -30.7%equal weight | 42-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x8de5…9416backed No | 61c | 1,439$878 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$561.21 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 44cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6d48…d6f1backed Yes | 50c | 1,435$718 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$717.5 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 41c | 1,408$584 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$824.29 | 40 | 12.5%5 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x612d…3fd1backed Yes | 70c | 1,350$945 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$945 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.3wins | +0.25per pick | 55cpaid | +70.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb1fe…423abacked No | 37c | 1,315$489 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$825.72 | 107 | 23.4%25 W · 82 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -11.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc351…08f7backed Yes | 47c | 1,300$611 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$611 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 56cpaid | -27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b2…9d96backed Yes | 21c | 1,275$268 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$267.75 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4a2b…af20backed No | 44c | 1,243$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$690.19 | 114 | 25.4%29 W · 85 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 25cpaid | -4.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x45db…8f65backed Yes | 55c | 1,234$678 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$677.99 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.6wins | +0.14per pick | 31cpaid | +327.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x83be…6f94backed No | 58c | 1,227$712 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$515.34 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.5wins | -0.13per pick | 50cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfb1b…a11dbacked Yes | 27c | 1,162$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$311.83 | 90 | 41.1%37 W · 53 L | +2.2wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | +8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x911b…a7febacked Yes | 18c | 1,118$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x82aa…2393backed No | 49c | 1,077$528 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$549.27 | 29 | 31%9 W · 20 L | -2.4wins | -0.08per pick | 39cpaid | -35.4%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f73…acefbacked Yes | 19c | 1,061$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.35 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -3.4wins | -0.19per pick | 30cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb766…1d83backed No | 47c | 1,050$494 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$556.49 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -50.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked No | 8c | 1,005$80 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$924.5 | 210 | 35.7%75 W · 135 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7ec0…76f4backed No | 62c | 1,004$625 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$378.54 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.3wins | +0.12per pick | 43cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9a5a…779cbacked Yes | 50c | 1,003$502 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$502.08 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -2.6wins | -0.10per pick | 47cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd001…3ceabacked Yes | 42c | 996$418 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$418.32 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x50e8…ac57backed No | 59c | 993$589 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$404.29 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -18.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6eaa…4456backed Yes | 50c | 984$492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$492 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.03per pick | 39cpaid | -7.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7233…f0eabacked Yes | 44c | 980$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.2 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 48cpaid | +8.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb00b…fbcabacked Yes | 41c | 963$393 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$393.37 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.22per pick | 49cpaid | -49.7%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8697…4165backed Yes | 30c | 960$288 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$288 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 53cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x465c…6e53backed Yes | 30c | 937$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.1 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.4wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xf1b8…84e3backed No | 68c | 923$631 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$292.37 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.7wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +15.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4346…2241backed No | 79c | 892$705 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$187.32 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.4wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +10.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7f…db83backed Yes | 46c | 887$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$408.02 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc40a…1f50backed Yes | 19c | 871$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.49 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.11per pick | 41cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2247…96e8backed Yes | 21c | 854$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.34 | 13 | 30.8%4 W · 9 L | +0.4wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +31.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f66…ad61backed No | 66c | 846$558 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$287.64 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 58cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8b45…836ebacked Yes | 52c | 842$438 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.84 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -4.2wins | -0.32per pick | 55cpaid | -67%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x3684…9669backed No | 66c | 823$543 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$279.82 | 16 | 31.3%5 W · 11 L | -2.3wins | -0.15per pick | 46cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0e77…3273backed No | 49c | 821$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$418.71 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -6.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ee4…6832backed No | 37c | 805.55$300 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.55 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 31cpaid | +26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked No | 33c | 803.03$265 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$538.22 | 105 | 61.9%65 W · 40 L | +17.4wins | +0.17per pick | 45cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 75c | 799.34$602 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$602.18 | 275 | 36.4%100 W · 175 L | +7.7wins | +0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -26.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2ccd…3055backed Yes | 51c | 785.76$397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$397.46 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 13c | 770.66$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$97.87 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75a2…6992backed Yes | 58c | 741.17$428 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$428.5 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…76c1backed Yes | 34c | 718$244 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.12 | 25 | 40%10 W · 15 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 43cpaid | +18.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2e15…7ff5backed Yes | 34c | 714$243 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$242.76 | 19 | 47.4%9 W · 10 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 41cpaid | +19.8%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd2c3…9cefbacked Yes | 39c | 712$278 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$277.68 | 17 | 35.3%6 W · 11 L | -1.8wins | -0.11per pick | 46cpaid | +8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd7d2…39f0backed No | 52c | 703$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$334.06 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 49cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1184…1b67backed No | 54c | 694$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$319.24 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x82a7…afb5backed No | 50c | 692$346 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$346 | 14 | 64.3%9 W · 5 L | +2.5wins | +0.18per pick | 46cpaid | +50.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xccc2…271abacked No | 70c | 688$482 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$206.4 | 15 | 66.7%10 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.23per pick | 44cpaid | +66.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xade2…e86dbacked Yes | 44c | 686.09$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -69.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…0137backed No | 50c | 679$340 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$339.5 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x36b8…ac4cbacked No | 30c | 675$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$472.5 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +115.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4b72…cd8ebacked No | 50c | 663$332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$331.5 | 19 | 42.1%8 W · 11 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +19%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x416c…8dcebacked No | 47c | 656$308 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$347.68 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 47cpaid | +14.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x128e…001dbacked No | 53c | 655$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$307.85 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 41cpaid | +79.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6f…deaebacked Yes | 37c | 650$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.5 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.23per pick | 50cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x5516…2263backed No | 65c | 611$397 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.85 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0d05…305bbacked Yes | 19c | 608$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.52 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 26cpaid | -8.9%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x036f…31a9backed Yes | 14c | 606$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.84 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +2.0wins | +0.09per pick | 38cpaid | +5.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…1214backed No | 61c | 603$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.17 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x533d…e5ecbacked No | 58c | 603$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$253.26 | 20 | 45%9 W · 11 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 45cpaid | +18.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x22f2…90d7backed No | 50c | 598$302 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$296.18 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -3.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9c2d…ddd6backed Yes | 51c | 587$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$299.37 | 14 | 14.3%2 W · 12 L | -3.1wins | -0.22per pick | 36cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x117f…088ebacked Yes | 46c | 585$269 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$269.1 | 17 | 41.2%7 W · 10 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | +5.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3087…f8fbbacked Yes | 39c | 583$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$227.37 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa277…1182backed No | 54c | 582.64$317 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$265.64 | 22 | 54.5%12 W · 10 L | +1.9wins | +0.09per pick | 46cpaid | +18%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6956…dd15backed No | 55c | 581$320 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$261.45 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -29.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2d81…fe57backed No | 14c | 578.12$83 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$495.56 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc5cf…90e6backed Yes | 14c | 568$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.52 | 29 | 34.5%10 W · 19 L | -1.9wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -30%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xab38…77febacked No | 27c | 561$151 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$409.53 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | -1.2wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -7.1%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd622…defcbacked Yes | 14c | 558$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78.12 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa8d…fc01backed No | 56c | 556$311 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$244.64 | 16 | 50%8 W · 8 L | +0.8wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x26ad…990ebacked Yes | 13c | 547$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.11 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9859…0176backed No | 70c | 538$377 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$161.4 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad99…dbabbacked No | 51c | 527.98$269 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$258.71 | 16 | 18.8%3 W · 13 L | -2.4wins | -0.15per pick | 34cpaid | -65.5%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…7279backed No | 64c | 524$334 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.4 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +3.7wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xfd72…6cc4backed No | 73c | 519$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.13 | 27 | 63%17 W · 10 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1719…5ceabacked No | 73c | 519$379 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$140.13 | 23 | 52.2%12 W · 11 L | -2.1wins | -0.09per pick | 61cpaid | -18%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdbbe…f1d5backed No | 56c | 501$281 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$220.44 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | +1.5wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +25.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb462…fc89backed Yes | 74c | 500.98$368 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$368.39 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0acc…debabacked Yes | 42c | 494$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.48 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -1.4wins | -0.27per pick | 67cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x38f5…6824backed No | 33c | 492.66$163 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$330.08 | 54 | 48.1%26 W · 28 L | +8.0wins | +0.15per pick | 33cpaid | +81.5%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd824…528bbacked No | 49c | 487$239 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$248.37 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x87fd…66bcbacked Yes | 39c | 484$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$188.76 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.9wins | -0.11per pick | 49cpaid | -41.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x62e3…9696backed Yes | 3c | 482$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5c51…a829backed Yes | 53c | 479$254 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$253.87 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | -1.6wins | -0.07per pick | 53cpaid | -1%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe9ea…a152backed Yes | 53c | 476$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.28 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +6.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed No | 44c | 475.2$207 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$268.21 | 87 | 46%40 W · 47 L | +1.1wins | +0.01per pick | 45cpaid | -8.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?this page
- Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 30% on Humanity’s Last Exam?Yes won
- Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 35% on Humanity’s Last Exam?Yes won
- Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?No won
- Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last Exam?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.