AI · resolved market
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x1a89ff4d047c52e0e7030e4effd0fd9d98a032da515ab7fff5c2eed82db374ea
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $41,842
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $52,704
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $41,842 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 36 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x75a2…6992backed Yes | 12c | 7,699$946 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$946.14 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed No | 78c | 1,014$791 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$223.21 | 136 | 54.4%74 W · 62 L | +8.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7c74…f90ebacked Yes | 11c | 856.38$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.33 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd98e…9bb3backed Yes | 8c | 694.47$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -22.5%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1933…b444backed Yes | 16c | 668$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.41 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0e43…c324backed Yes | 14c | 627.83$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 4c | 557.52$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.28 | 191 | 20.9%40 W · 151 L | -20.8wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x3f73…acefbacked Yes | 6c | 522.87$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.98 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -3.4wins | -0.19per pick | 30cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked Yes | 7c | 521.47$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.77 | 117 | 20.5%24 W · 93 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes | 12c | 495.19$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.21 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 4c | 482.25$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.33 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x05ab…1990backed Yes | 4c | 431.11$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.4 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfd2f…535cbacked Yes | 11c | 422.63$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked Yes | 3c | 341.11$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.86 | 304 | 2%6 W · 298 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 11c | 325.24$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.01 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c9e…db3dbacked Yes | 4c | 311.45$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.15 | 150 | 2.7%4 W · 146 L | -3.0wins | -0.02per pick | 5cpaid | -49.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 4c | 300$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.1 | 279 | 2.5%7 W · 272 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8d9c…0803backed Yes | 14c | 300$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x912d…f1febacked Yes | 5c | 289.27$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.78 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | -2.2wins | -0.07per pick | 30cpaid | +26.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 11c | 244.01$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.94 | 40 | 12.5%5 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaaf7…2e27backed Yes | 7c | 235$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.56 | 175 | 4%7 W · 168 L | +3.8wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -19.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb230…e488backed Yes | 7c | 214.57$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 25 | 16%4 W · 21 L | -0.6wins | -0.03per pick | 19cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d9b…302bbacked Yes | 11c | 182.12$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe1fa…1a49backed Yes | 14c | 145$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.31per pick | 19cpaid | +107.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7d1b…e75cbacked Yes | 7c | 142.11$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.43 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | +2.1wins | +0.06per pick | 33cpaid | -16%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 11c | 135.08$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.45 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x911b…a7febacked Yes | 16c | 126.18$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaac8…3ef6backed Yes | 19c | 121.03$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.85 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.14per pick | 48cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e45…1efbbacked Yes | 20c | 120.7$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.14 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd857…9cf1backed Yes | 11c | 118.74$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.6 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.9wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5146…ac5ebacked Yes | 10c | 103.43$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.72 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 11c | 101.59$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.33 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5352…fc6bbacked Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.85 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.1wins | +0.11per pick | 19cpaid | +81.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 18c | 60$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.88 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 65c | 32.1$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.22 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 74c | 25.82$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.83 | 220 | 19.5%43 W · 177 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last Exam?this page
- Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 30% on Humanity’s Last Exam?Yes won
- Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 35% on Humanity’s Last Exam?Yes won
- Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?No won
- Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.