AI · resolved market
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 35% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x39456483b0efd35491f25d32c4ddd6e22646773c39c39ffbff36ebe01f9b61de
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $97,132
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $82,521
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $97,132 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 87 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x355e…a038backed No | 7c | 9,677$644 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$643.95 | 136 | 54.4%74 W · 62 L | +8.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0042…321ebacked No | 6c | 3,093$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.93 | 70 | 20%14 W · 56 L | -1.7wins | -0.02per pick | 22cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6b0e…e3eabacked No | 4c | 2,277$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.07 | 190 | 11.6%22 W · 168 L | -0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd94e…7d02backed No | 12c | 2,141$257 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.68 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb15f…925fbacked No | 72c | 2,072$1,492 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,491.84 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.5wins | -0.73per pick | 73cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x2a0d…e145backed Yes | 28c | 2,072$580 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,491.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.72per pick | 28cpaid | +257.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x52b3…3a58backed No | 4c | 1,789$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.65 | 53 | 20.8%11 W · 42 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -33.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed No | 6c | 1,605$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.09 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed No | 4c | 1,585$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.63 | 256 | 0%0 W · 256 L | -3.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x74b8…0c87backed Yes | 54c | 1,375$743 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$632.5 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -1.6wins | -0.16per pick | 56cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1f82…2d74backed No | 5c | 1,321$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.8 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7ab6…fa77backed No | 3c | 1,170$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.45 | 256 | 0.8%2 W · 254 L | -8.9wins | -0.03per pick | 4cpaid | -97.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbcc1…d40bbacked Yes | 60c | 1,139$683 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$455.6 | 12 | 58.3%7 W · 5 L | +1.1wins | +0.09per pick | 50cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0d…9b6ebacked No | 13c | 1,066$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.88 | 183 | 11.5%21 W · 162 L | -1.3wins | -0.01per pick | 12cpaid | -31.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204d…08cbbacked No | 46c | 994$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$457.24 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7a9…fee3backed Yes | 54c | 973$525 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$447.58 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -4.5wins | -0.19per pick | 50cpaid | -50.3%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9859…0176backed Yes | 57c | 971$553 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$417.53 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -26.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x465c…6e53backed No | 43c | 930$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$399.9 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -3.4wins | -0.34per pick | 54cpaid | -66.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed No | 8c | 880.99$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.1 | 186 | 7%13 W · 173 L | -3.6wins | -0.02per pick | 9cpaid | -50.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x367b…48dabacked No | 37c | 832$307 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$307.24 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | -1.8wins | -0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -15.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbe71…38d2backed Yes | 43c | 813$350 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$463.41 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -1.0wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -47.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfe70…e8e9backed Yes | 63c | 793$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$293.41 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +1.9wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +53.3%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf907…e7dbbacked Yes | 54c | 791$427 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$363.86 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 48cpaid | +38.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33db…417abacked No | 4c | 782.95$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.09 | 190 | 40.5%77 W · 113 L | +14.4wins | +0.08per pick | 33cpaid | +0.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x55d0…f655backed No | 9c | 775.79$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.07 | 201 | 30.3%61 W · 140 L | +7.6wins | +0.04per pick | 27cpaid | -29.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7f…db83backed No | 48c | 770$370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$369.88 | 16 | 43.8%7 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -12.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57ab…434bbacked Yes | 63c | 760$479 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.2 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -3.9wins | -0.17per pick | 47cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x7ff1…85cdbacked No | 46c | 732$337 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$336.72 | 17 | 29.4%5 W · 12 L | -3.4wins | -0.20per pick | 49cpaid | -51.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe590…87bfbacked Yes | 43c | 730$314 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$416.1 | 15 | 33.3%5 W · 10 L | -1.6wins | -0.10per pick | 44cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6537…fcecbacked No | 40c | 728$291 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$291.2 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +1.1wins | +0.10per pick | 35cpaid | +54.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x71fb…9b65backed No | 46c | 725$334 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 43cpaid | +34.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf06d…db77backed No | 57c | 672$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.04 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 42cpaid | -5.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5b74…93f7backed No | 37c | 636$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.32 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6897…63b6backed Yes | 63c | 636$401 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$235.32 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +27%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe154…0b7fbacked No | 2c | 624.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 263 | 12.9%34 W · 229 L | +5.5wins | +0.02per pick | 11cpaid | -1.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed No | 5c | 613.7$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.02 | 279 | 2.5%7 W · 272 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fc9…ace5backed No | 4c | 578.52$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.05 | 211 | 0.9%2 W · 209 L | -12.0wins | -0.06per pick | 7cpaid | -85.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked No | 8c | 554.29$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.08 | 40 | 12.5%5 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7a80…729cbacked No | 5c | 539.14$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.59 | 58 | 13.8%8 W · 50 L | -0.7wins | -0.01per pick | 15cpaid | -52.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x63c6…43a5backed No | 11c | 531.86$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.68 | 56 | 53.6%30 W · 26 L | +7.4wins | +0.13per pick | 40cpaid | -5.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x9474…5091backed No | 5c | 524.92$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.67 | 297 | 7.7%23 W · 274 L | -9.9wins | -0.03per pick | 11cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe2a9…79a1backed No | 5c | 481.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.1 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 19cpaid | +16.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1326…d13dbacked Yes | 54c | 465$251 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$213.9 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +3.0wins | +0.27per pick | 36cpaid | +99.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe061…93f9backed No | 5c | 462.43$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.96 | 86 | 5.8%5 W · 81 L | +0.8wins | +0.01per pick | 5cpaid | +8.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc94a…ac22backed No | 57c | 449$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$255.93 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | +57.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xed45…929dbacked Yes | 58c | 438$254 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.96 | 14 | 50%7 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 52cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1184…1b67backed No | 42c | 438$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.96 | 18 | 50%9 W · 9 L | +1.9wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +40.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcc80…7bd2backed No | 36c | 434$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.24 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf8ae…bb88backed Yes | 64c | 434$278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.24 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -1.5wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfbf2…887dbacked No | 5c | 417.21$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.75 | 76 | 7.9%6 W · 70 L | +2.3wins | +0.03per pick | 5cpaid | +52.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a6f…deaebacked Yes | 54c | 417$225 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$191.82 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.6wins | -0.23per pick | 50cpaid | -56.9%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8b44…63fbbacked No | 7c | 407.98$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.15 | 204 | 18.6%38 W · 166 L | -8.3wins | -0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd2dc…223ebacked No | 5c | 401.14$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 78 | 24.4%19 W · 59 L | -7.0wins | -0.09per pick | 33cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xba2f…25e6backed No | 3c | 400$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 38cpaid | +4.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed No | 4c | 360.94$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 252 | 2%5 W · 247 L | -4.9wins | -0.02per pick | 4cpaid | -74.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2bc0…fab9backed No | 46c | 340$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.4 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -2.8wins | -0.40per pick | 54cpaid | -74%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x0278…00e6backed No | 37c | 325$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.25 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.9wins | -0.17per pick | 45cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd80d…b42bbacked No | 46c | 323$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$148.58 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.7wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +12.3%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7270…add3backed No | 46c | 315$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.9 | 21 | 42.9%9 W · 12 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 41cpaid | +14.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec82…6eaabacked No | 5c | 302.05$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.67 | 304 | 2%6 W · 298 L | -9.4wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -70.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5081…a309backed No | 6c | 300$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.5 | 71 | 7%5 W · 66 L | +1.9wins | +0.03per pick | 4cpaid | +33.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x945a…a48cbacked No | 10c | 275.94$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.31 | 117 | 5.1%6 W · 111 L | -6.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -65.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0a6d…1d0abacked No | 6c | 265$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.01 | 117 | 20.5%24 W · 93 L | -5.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -60.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xcf7f…f745backed No | 43c | 261$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.23 | 18 | 55.6%10 W · 8 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 53cpaid | +6.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x21d2…3e62backed No | 46c | 250$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.0wins | +0.11per pick | 45cpaid | +57.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x61ef…b300backed Yes | 54c | 250$135 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$115 | 18 | 44.4%8 W · 10 L | +0.6wins | +0.03per pick | 41cpaid | +78.5%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec92…1214backed No | 10c | 249$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.15 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | +4.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39b4…3258backed No | 46c | 241$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.86 | 15 | 40%6 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | +65.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd622…defcbacked No | 43c | 215$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.45 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 39c | 177.02$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$69.57 | 301 | 27.2%82 W · 219 L | +1.1wins | 0.00per pick | 27cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x457c…6659backed No | 6c | 161.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84f3…e6aabacked No | 10c | 152$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.35 | 17 | 23.5%4 W · 13 L | -3.1wins | -0.19per pick | 42cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed No | 8c | 148.97$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.44 | 205 | 44.4%91 W · 114 L | -4.3wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | -20.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7410…ad32backed No | 46c | 142$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.32 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +2.6%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9a81…c57fbacked No | 7c | 137$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.9wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb13b…0e2bbacked No | 30c | 123.33$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.4 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +4.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 25c | 89.42$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.4 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x1db2…ebc2backed Yes | 53c | 81$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$38.07 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 50cpaid | -5.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5ad8…9756backed No | 47c | 81$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.07 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -1.8wins | -0.16per pick | 44cpaid | -51.9%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x26ad…990ebacked No | 46c | 77$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.42 | 26 | 38.5%10 W · 16 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 43cpaid | -26.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9818…7cd3backed No | 46c | 66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -3.4wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x10bc…0451backed No | 46c | 66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.36 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 38cpaid | +20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e9e…bd49backed No | 57c | 58$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.06 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 36cpaid | +16%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x886f…6537backed Yes | 50c | 49.66$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.66 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +84.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3b24…1738backed Yes | 60c | 43$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.4 | 17 | 47.1%8 W · 9 L | +1.0wins | +0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -17.4%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a12…c4c3backed Yes | 64c | 31.25$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | +66.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 41c | 29.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 35% on Humanity’s Last Exam?this page
- Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 30% on Humanity’s Last Exam?Yes won
- Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?No won
- Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?No won
- Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last Exam?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.