AI · resolved market
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x370f7e3ea0ccad360813dbb3b657aa079287d0f5222bb6e8d82f9a1731bd9ec8
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $39,254
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $39,786
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $39,254 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 98 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xcd2c…a30ebacked Yes | 31c | 10,918$3,370 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,370.42 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | +25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbeb9…3870backed No | 70c | 9,996$6,993 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,002.51 | 79 | 48.1%38 W · 41 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -9.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75a2…6992backed Yes | 36c | 2,959$1,072 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,071.69 | 29 | 51.7%15 W · 14 L | +2.9wins | +0.10per pick | 42cpaid | +14.7%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9aeb…2729backed No | 54c | 2,395$1,299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,095.76 | 118 | 55.9%66 W · 52 L | +11.0wins | +0.09per pick | 47cpaid | +5.8%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb074…1e54backed Yes | 40c | 1,760$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…9025backed Yes | 36c | 1,400$504 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$504 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +1.7wins | +0.12per pick | 45cpaid | +27.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x355e…a038backed No | 64c | 1,328$854 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$474.3 | 136 | 54.4%74 W · 62 L | +8.2wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +9.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a3f…914abacked No | 68c | 1,147$777 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$369.54 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 40cpaid | +20.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed No | 55c | 906.36$498 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.86 | 29 | 65.5%19 W · 10 L | +5.5wins | +0.19per pick | 46cpaid | +39.8%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0xd48f…2132backed Yes | 45c | 622.4$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.26 | 10 | 40%4 W · 6 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0482…6b0abacked Yes | 19c | 560$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.4 | 210 | 35.7%75 W · 135 L | +13.4wins | +0.06per pick | 29cpaid | -8.4%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58c0…1c8ebacked No | 66c | 550$361 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$189.29 | 82 | 41.5%34 W · 48 L | +6.5wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x8fbd…0b14backed Yes | 20c | 503.57$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.67 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -0.5wins | -0.05per pick | 14cpaid | -63%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed No | 65c | 500$325 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175 | 49 | 42.9%21 W · 28 L | -2.8wins | -0.06per pick | 49cpaid | -23.9%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd281…a3c9backed Yes | 19c | 445.51$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.65 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +1.2wins | +0.11per pick | 43cpaid | +66.3%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbad2…5296backed No | 55c | 438.72$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$197.81 | 41 | 34.1%14 W · 27 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -25.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4c2a…65dcbacked Yes | 27c | 412.99$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.28 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.0wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9f…a025backed No | 62c | 411.62$255 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$156.61 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe590…a5d4backed Yes | 45c | 400$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$180 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.17per pick | 28cpaid | -80.1%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb462…fc89backed No | 78c | 304.69$238 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.26 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 76cpaid | -36.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x927f…e7e7backed No | 63c | 300$189 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$111 | 37 | 35.1%13 W · 24 L | +0.9wins | +0.03per pick | 33cpaid | +22%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x84d7…298fbacked Yes | 61c | 300$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183 | 40 | 12.5%5 W · 35 L | -1.9wins | -0.05per pick | 17cpaid | -52.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8168…6857backed No | 66c | 297$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$100.74 | 10 | 70%7 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.10per pick | 60cpaid | +8.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 9c | 296$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.64 | 178 | 24.2%43 W · 135 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -56%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2843…b3d2backed Yes | 49c | 249.36$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.69 | 115 | 49.6%57 W · 58 L | +7.4wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -2.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4191…569fbacked Yes | 36c | 233$84 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.88 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -4.1wins | -0.34per pick | 51cpaid | -71.9%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 17c | 231.08$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.78 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6560…e164backed No | 65c | 228.74$148 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$80.35 | 90 | 40%36 W · 54 L | +8.9wins | +0.10per pick | 30cpaid | +30.3%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2bcd…cbfbbacked No | 70c | 225.61$158 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$67.87 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 46cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb43b…77d9backed Yes | 28c | 214.75$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -2.1wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed Yes | 14c | 212.56$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 220 | 19.5%43 W · 177 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x4906…7e10backed Yes | 33c | 205.66$69 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.89 | 26 | 30.8%8 W · 18 L | +1.3wins | +0.05per pick | 26cpaid | +55%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb17d…59aebacked No | 64c | 200$128 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 42 | 42.9%18 W · 24 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 43cpaid | -21%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0da4…eddebacked No | 69c | 200$137 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$63 | 27 | 55.6%15 W · 12 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -6.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x31b6…3f0ebacked No | 65c | 200$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa970…d60dbacked No | 69c | 200$138 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -27.5%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb651…aab6backed Yes | 10c | 199.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3e45…1efbbacked Yes | 40c | 184.81$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.92 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 44cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x79a8…c7bdbacked No | 57c | 163.83$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$70.7 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.55per pick | 45cpaid | +139.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3f73…acefbacked Yes | 9c | 153.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.05 | 18 | 11.1%2 W · 16 L | -3.4wins | -0.19per pick | 30cpaid | -71.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x2d81…fe57backed No | 64c | 148.33$95 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.33 | 41 | 58.5%24 W · 17 L | +4.5wins | +0.11per pick | 48cpaid | +12.1%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xae28…8883backed No | 65c | 141.76$93 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.12 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc91b…93bdbacked Yes | 10c | 141.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 29 | 44.8%13 W · 16 L | +3.9wins | +0.13per pick | 31cpaid | +8.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x193a…32c1backed No | 65c | 137.85$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.25 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.06per pick | 61cpaid | -0.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x11f8…1c4ebacked Yes | 22c | 133$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.57 | 56 | 55.4%31 W · 25 L | +7.2wins | +0.13per pick | 42cpaid | +7.2%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xb8ad…ff58backed No | 80c | 129.98$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.6 | 73 | 37%27 W · 46 L | +0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 37cpaid | -32.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked Yes | 14c | 129$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 116 | 36.2%42 W · 74 L | +2.4wins | +0.02per pick | 34cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x222a…d5afbacked Yes | 16c | 125$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 23 | 26.1%6 W · 17 L | -3.0wins | -0.13per pick | 39cpaid | -56.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbc3a…e3bcbacked Yes | 8c | 125$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +3.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdb3c…8e0bbacked Yes | 43c | 121.72$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.52 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -1.5wins | -0.15per pick | 45cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6dec…cefabacked No | 66c | 120.56$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$41.57 | 35 | 60%21 W · 14 L | +4.0wins | +0.11per pick | 49cpaid | +7.5%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 14c | 116.08$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.71 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x789a…1ddabacked No | 65c | 114.42$74 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.05 | 28 | 50%14 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 48cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x70ca…2443backed Yes | 31c | 102.83$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.88 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.7wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1933…b444backed Yes | 42c | 102$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.79 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5042…f296backed Yes | 33c | 101.75$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.31 | 23 | 34.8%8 W · 15 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 35cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c47…37e8backed Yes | 16c | 91.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.87 | 27 | 37%10 W · 17 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -16.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x29ef…dddabacked Yes | 20c | 90.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.63 | 101 | 44.6%45 W · 56 L | +3.1wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cbe…335cbacked Yes | 22c | 88.34$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x911b…a7febacked Yes | 23c | 88.11$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 22 | 22.7%5 W · 17 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 28cpaid | -39.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…7279backed Yes | 50c | 82.52$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.26 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +3.7wins | +0.11per pick | 42cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x01af…25cfbacked No | 57c | 79.48$45 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.48 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 33cpaid | +59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe732…898fbacked Yes | 20c | 77.65$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.46 | 90 | 41.1%37 W · 53 L | +3.2wins | +0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -16.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe018…a22dbacked Yes | 16c | 77.05$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.3 | 14 | 21.4%3 W · 11 L | -0.4wins | -0.03per pick | 24cpaid | -4.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 36c | 75.4$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.15 | 407 | 12.3%50 W · 357 L | -35.7wins | -0.09per pick | 21cpaid | -48.3%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x0eee…81bcbacked Yes | 28c | 71.31$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 40cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x99bc…4f35backed Yes | 18c | 70.16$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.82 | 207 | 31.9%66 W · 141 L | +4.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0739…aba8backed No | 63c | 69.89$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.77 | 80 | 47.5%38 W · 42 L | +3.3wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | +1.9%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd679…7c88backed Yes | 43c | 69.77$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 34c | 68.84$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.14 | 191 | 20.9%40 W · 151 L | -20.8wins | -0.11per pick | 32cpaid | -57.1%equal weight | 39-0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5146…ac5ebacked Yes | 28c | 66.44$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.44 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1fac…1feebacked Yes | 34c | 61.94$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3d60…6df2backed No | 65c | 60$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21 | 14 | 78.6%11 W · 3 L | +2.9wins | +0.21per pick | 58cpaid | +40%equal weight | 58+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd6d0…d7a1backed No | 68c | 58.86$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19 | 17 | 64.7%11 W · 6 L | +1.8wins | +0.11per pick | 54cpaid | +23.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x89a0…e717backed Yes | 27c | 55.56$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaccf…279ebacked Yes | 20c | 53.45$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.69 | 12 | 25%3 W · 9 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6cbe…5323backed Yes | 19c | 52.21$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 50cpaid | +4.8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5e8…76a1backed No | 78c | 51.28$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.28 | 67 | 53.7%36 W · 31 L | +6.0wins | +0.09per pick | 45cpaid | +14.4%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x28ab…2048backed Yes | 21c | 47.4$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.07 | 35 | 57.1%20 W · 15 L | +2.3wins | +0.07per pick | 51cpaid | +13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4b50…e55fbacked Yes | 32c | 46.88$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7b72…602fbacked Yes | 45c | 44.35$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.15per pick | 60cpaid | +15.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8490…ac46backed No | 69c | 43.72$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 65cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x582a…7bb2backed No | 56c | 37.42$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$16.43 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b1e…7854backed No | 80c | 36.77$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.35 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -6.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x623f…1852backed No | 76c | 36$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.68 | 19 | 68.4%13 W · 6 L | +1.3wins | +0.07per pick | 62cpaid | +2.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 76c | 35.19$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.4 | 142 | 81%115 W · 27 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 74cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked No | 78c | 30$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 57 | 56.1%32 W · 25 L | +4.0wins | +0.07per pick | 49cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x22f1…6415backed No | 55c | 30$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.5 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -45.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0711…f03cbacked No | 74c | 30$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.9 | 193 | 37.3%72 W · 121 L | +9.0wins | +0.05per pick | 33cpaid | -10.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x34a9…4cfdbacked No | 65c | 28.88$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.11 | 22 | 68.2%15 W · 7 L | +3.8wins | +0.17per pick | 51cpaid | +25.5%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x61f2…e77abacked No | 65c | 27.78$18 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.7 | 17 | 58.8%10 W · 7 L | -1.1wins | -0.07per pick | 65cpaid | -11.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4d7c…3e7abacked No | 62c | 25$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.55 | 19 | 63.2%12 W · 7 L | +1.8wins | +0.10per pick | 54cpaid | +8.8%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3082…9446backed No | 67c | 21.91$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.22 | 43 | 39.5%17 W · 26 L | -10.9wins | -0.25per pick | 65cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0x52fd…2ab7backed No | 65c | 21.55$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -1.2wins | -0.05per pick | 37cpaid | -30.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xca1f…d282backed No | 61c | 20$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.8 | 28 | 60.7%17 W · 11 L | +1.1wins | +0.04per pick | 57cpaid | +13.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3cff…6fbdbacked No | 67c | 20$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.6 | 8 | 75%6 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.06per pick | 69cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa794…42adbacked No | 59c | 19.39$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.95 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | -0.9wins | -0.04per pick | 38cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb2d5…ff8bbacked No | 68c | 14.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.8 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -2.0wins | -0.18per pick | 63cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 5 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?this page
- Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 30% on Humanity’s Last Exam?Yes won
- Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 35% on Humanity’s Last Exam?Yes won
- Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?No won
- Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 55% on Humanity’s Last Exam?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.