TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x1f9f…a025

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
53
Categories scored
11
Categories below 50
7

Best Category: World Politics, grading 60 out of 100 (+0.09 per pick).

Best Category World Politics at 60 out of 100; worst Middle East at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
AI Inactivelast resolved Jul 24, 2026, EDT1770.6%12 W · 5 L+3.4wins+0.20per pick51cpaid+35.9%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
AI — the 17 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$294Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 24, 2026, EDT+75.7%+$222.36
GPT-5.6 released by July 8, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.13
Will GPT-5.6 be released on July 7, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$329Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT+252%+$827.98
GPT-5.6 released by July 7, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$379Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 8, 2026, EDT+203.3%+$771.23
Will there be fewer than 2 ChatGPT outages in June 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$118Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+31.6%+$37.2
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 50% on Humanity’s Last Exam?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$255Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+61.4%+$156.61
Will an Anthropic Claude model score at least 45% on Humanity’s Last Exam?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$98Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+209.2%+$204.84
Will the next Claude Sonnet model be released by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$155Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 30, 2026, EDT+66.7%+$103.6
Will GPT-5.6 not be released by June 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$1,240Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT+49.8%+$616.96
Will GPT-5.6 be released between June 22 and June 28, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.91
Will Claude Fable 5 be restored for US customers by June 22?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$212Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 23, 2026, EDT+52%+$110.14
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $1.75T by June 30?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$129Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$128.53
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by June 30, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$803Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$803.3
Will a Claude Mythos model be released by July 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$418Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$417.92
Will there be fewer than 2 ChatGPT outages in May 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$299Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+44.8%+$133.99
Will there be exactly 2 ChatGPT outages in May 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$251Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+29.6%+$74.38
Claude 4.8 released by May 31?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$1,145Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 28, 2026, EDT+33.6%+$384.38
All 17 picks, newest first.
World Politicslast resolved Aug 14, 2026, EDT1457.1%8 W · 6 L+3.5wins+0.25per pick32cpaid+55.8%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
World Politics — the 14 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Nigel Farage win the Clacton by-election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$678Lost — open this pick on its own pageAug 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$677.89
Will Yvette Cooper be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.02
Will Ed Miliband be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK in 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$32Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.79
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$2,359Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+246.5%+$5,813.75
Starmer out by July 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$1,242Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+148.2%+$1,839.83
Starmer out by December 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$1,732Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,731.56
Starmer out by October 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+33.3%+$20.83
Starmer out by August 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$666Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+82.2%+$547
Starmer out by June 26, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$1,551Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+117.3%+$1,819.05
Starmer out by June 22, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$651Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 22, 2026, EDT+598%+$3,892.13
Makerfield by-election: Restore Britain receives 10%+?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$306Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 19, 2026, EDT+48%+$147.04
Starmer out by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$992Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$991.6
Canada recession before 2027?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)48c$91Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT+108.3%+$98.49
Starmer out by May 19, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$140
All 14 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT475%3 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.12per pick63cpaid+9%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L0.0wins-0.01per pick26cpaid-44.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
IPO — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved Aug 1, 2026, EDT40%0 W · 4 L-0.1wins-0.02per pick2cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Middle Eastlast resolved Aug 21, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.8wins-0.26per pick60cpaid-22.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.34per pick66cpaid+50.8%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Stocks — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$6,252Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT+58.2%+$3,638.05
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$697Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT+43.4%+$302.8
All 2 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Aug 4, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.4wins-0.18per pick18cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Jul 11, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$1,288Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$1,287.66
All 1 picks, newest first.
Lol Inactivelast resolved Jul 25, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Lol — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Lol, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
LoL: Team Vitality vs G2 Esports (BO3) - LEC Regular Seasonbacked Team Vitality · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.67
All 1 picks, newest first.
China Taiwan Inactivelast resolved May 25, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.40per pick40cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
China Taiwan — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in China Taiwan, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Trump announce a tariff reduction on China?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$143Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$143.04
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.