AI · resolved market
Will there be fewer than 2 ChatGPT outages in May 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x041781e51fba4cc3eca81511d2035d699b30386eae5351d5eff86b1de2ea0347
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $15,488
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $16,062
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $15,488 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 74 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x64b8…051bbacked Yes | 29c | 1,601$467 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,134.63 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x565e…875dbacked Yes | 31c | 745.72$229 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$516.3 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.4wins | +0.45per pick | 21cpaid | +229.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8796…c321backed Yes | 65c | 530.91$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$183.91 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +53%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9f…a025backed Yes | 69c | 432.88$299 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$133.99 | 17 | 70.6%12 W · 5 L | +3.4wins | +0.20per pick | 51cpaid | +35.9%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 71c | 418.91$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.55 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x51f2…38efbacked No | 35c | 402.69$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.19 | 70 | 38.6%27 W · 43 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -5.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83c5…e193backed No | 49c | 389.99$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.09 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8575…87febacked No | 20c | 374.89$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.69 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x249e…61debacked No | 62c | 373$231 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$230.56 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x47f7…0312backed Yes | 38c | 343.22$130 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$212.8 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 33cpaid | +31.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3690…e16fbacked No | 60c | 336.91$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200.96 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | -44.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8e…8db8backed Yes | 43c | 306.85$131 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.54 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +7.8wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x5e7d…ca41backed No | 72c | 300$216 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$216 | 24 | 16.7%4 W · 20 L | -5.6wins | -0.23per pick | 40cpaid | -59.9%equal weight | 37-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 31c | 290.18$89 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$201.35 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xda44…2e5abacked Yes | 38c | 281.1$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$175.55 | 16 | 75%12 W · 4 L | +4.1wins | +0.26per pick | 49cpaid | +83.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 38c | 241.8$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.27 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0cb1…a76cbacked No | 49c | 216.56$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.45 | 93 | 33.3%31 W · 62 L | +7.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 40c | 170$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.7 | 75 | 38.7%29 W · 46 L | -4.9wins | -0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xd907…d4f6backed Yes | 43c | 161.9$70 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$91.9 | 12 | 41.7%5 W · 7 L | +0.7wins | +0.06per pick | 36cpaid | +39.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0f60…026abacked No | 72c | 160$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.4 | 18 | 33.3%6 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.12per pick | 45cpaid | -54.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 74c | 157.75$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.74 | 322 | 28.9%93 W · 229 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 42c | 156.28$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.29 | 294 | 30.6%90 W · 204 L | -7.1wins | -0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -6.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21a3…9e97backed Yes | 62c | 145$90 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$54.55 | 24 | 29.2%7 W · 17 L | +1.0wins | +0.04per pick | 25cpaid | +49.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbb42…6e09backed Yes | 51c | 133.33$68 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.33 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.1wins | -0.28per pick | 53cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 22c | 119.64$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.36 | 74 | 48.6%36 W · 38 L | +2.0wins | +0.03per pick | 46cpaid | -14.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5711…5853backed No | 59c | 115$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.85 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -1.2wins | -0.60per pick | 60cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4e72…ffb9backed Yes | 68c | 113$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$35.71 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | +1.6wins | +0.06per pick | 46cpaid | -11.4%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0f94…dbf9backed Yes | 51c | 107.84$55 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52.84 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.49per pick | 51cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xeab6…d4c6backed No | 35c | 98.76$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.57 | 37 | 18.9%7 W · 30 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 43c | 95.23$41 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.86 | 729 | 35.5%259 W · 470 L | -57.8wins | -0.08per pick | 43cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked No | 13c | 94.77$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.52 | 178 | 24.2%43 W · 135 L | -12.4wins | -0.07per pick | 31cpaid | -56%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 74c | 93.55$69 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.52 | 63 | 34.9%22 W · 41 L | -1.1wins | -0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3030…86aebacked Yes | 28c | 92.93$26 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$66.91 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 39cpaid | -42.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x490e…19d3backed Yes | 55c | 90.62$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.67 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.4wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9e36…1f39backed Yes | 44c | 85.66$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.13 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -15.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x936a…7a5abacked Yes | 41c | 85$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$50.15 | 9 | 33.3%3 W · 6 L | -1.0wins | -0.11per pick | 44cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f7c…4c7cbacked Yes | 34c | 80.5$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.13 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +47.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcab5…4bddbacked No | 66c | 80.5$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.13 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -4.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 47c | 79.01$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.3 | 87 | 41.4%36 W · 51 L | -3.9wins | -0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -28.6%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xaa81…aaf7backed No | 34c | 78.53$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.45 | 220 | 19.5%43 W · 177 L | -11.7wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -46.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed No | 55c | 64.61$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.76 | 893 | 17.1%153 W · 740 L | -144.9wins | -0.16per pick | 33cpaid | -61.3%equal weight | 32-0.16 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 66c | 61.97$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.07 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4560…8ce8backed No | 72c | 60$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.2 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.17per pick | 57cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa76b…8a50backed No | 35c | 52.54$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 21 | 33.3%7 W · 14 L | +1.3wins | +0.06per pick | 27cpaid | +6.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x92fe…f901backed Yes | 50c | 50.41$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.41 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.06per pick | 44cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0218…52c0backed No | 20c | 50.32$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.19 | 32 | 6.3%2 W · 30 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 7cpaid | -81.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x582a…7bb2backed No | 30c | 49.99$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 56 | 33.9%19 W · 37 L | -1.4wins | -0.02per pick | 36cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb719…c1e1backed No | 35c | 46$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.1 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3373…3716backed Yes | 47c | 45.87$21 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$24.48 | 22 | 72.7%16 W · 6 L | +4.3wins | +0.20per pick | 53cpaid | +33.1%equal weight | 60+0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x3eac…fe52backed Yes | 22c | 45$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.96 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 18cpaid | +84%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe7a0…69aebacked Yes | 46c | 42.14$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.73 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.35per pick | 65cpaid | +62.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked Yes | 30c | 42$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.4 | 22 | 31.8%7 W · 15 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6e88…bd30backed No | 73c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.2 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58b…ef84backed Yes | 51c | 40$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$19.6 | 18 | 61.1%11 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.04per pick | 65cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 72c | 40$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.6 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 57c | 38.9$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.08 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 65c | 37.79$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.71 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd1a6…1507backed No | 72c | 36.21$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.05 | 36 | 38.9%14 W · 22 L | -4.3wins | -0.12per pick | 51cpaid | -39.1%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xb242…eb89backed Yes | 79c | 35.07$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.46 | 13 | 23.1%3 W · 10 L | -2.9wins | -0.22per pick | 46cpaid | -68%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x3653…ef74backed Yes | 63c | 32$20 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.76 | 22 | 36.4%8 W · 14 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 41cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcec4…9258backed Yes | 41c | 32$13 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.97 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 40cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xae7c…487ebacked No | 61c | 30$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.3 | 65 | 36.9%24 W · 41 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 28cpaid | +55.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x80a4…22ccbacked Yes | 39c | 30$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.3 | 47 | 34%16 W · 31 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 33cpaid | -2.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1b5f…0ecdbacked Yes | 49c | 30$15 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.3 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3582…746fbacked Yes | 76c | 29.99$23 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.1 | 6 | 66.7%4 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.14per pick | 52cpaid | +17%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe3bb…fce3backed No | 60c | 28.28$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.99 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.6wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -13.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b7f…8373backed No | 40c | 26.25$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +23.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3f35…9ea4backed No | 73c | 20.2$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.75 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 75cpaid | -25.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4e92…1245backed Yes | 52c | 20$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.6 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64a7…2133backed Yes | 80c | 20$16 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.8wins | +0.12per pick | 35cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 64c | 19.32$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.38 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf528…7e5bbacked No | 79c | 18$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.26 | 142 | 81%115 W · 27 L | +10.4wins | +0.07per pick | 74cpaid | +10.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9422…f273backed Yes | 60c | 16.99$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.8 | 89 | 55.1%49 W · 40 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 52cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x16c7…22cdbacked Yes | 61c | 16.53$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6.45 | 26 | 50%13 W · 13 L | +1.8wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -3.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be fewer than 2 ChatGPT outages in May 2026?this page
- Will there be 4 or more ChatGPT outages in May 2026?No won
- Will there be exactly 2 ChatGPT outages in May 2026?No won
- Will there be exactly 3 ChatGPT outages in May 2026?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.