AI · resolved market
Will there be 4 or more ChatGPT outages in May 2026?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x001fec0f90da1fdc6c3d4d6bf626e41815b40e7b19eef85a745a29ef47ff925c
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- AIevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $11,320
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $10,152
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $11,320 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 24 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in AI is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in AI | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x249e…61debacked Yes | 24c | 1,276$312 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$312.17 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -1.8wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 2c | 687.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.74 | 415 | 7.2%30 W · 385 L | -26.1wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -69%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4ffe…9f71backed Yes | 2c | 571$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.99 | 1,363 | 6.8%93 W · 1,270 L | -20.2wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06b6…eba6backed No | 75c | 395.92$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$98.98 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -12%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 7c | 200$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 457 | 38.9%178 W · 279 L | -31.3wins | -0.07per pick | 46cpaid | -3.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x724b…81bdbacked Yes | 21c | 161.82$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.46 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x64a0…9d96backed Yes | 9c | 160.47$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.92 | 34 | 23.5%8 W · 26 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -12.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1e98…6345backed Yes | 8c | 160$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 279 | 2.5%7 W · 272 L | -7.0wins | -0.03per pick | 5cpaid | -69.4%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1e82…af92backed No | 80c | 153.8$122 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.36 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.9wins | +0.08per pick | 46cpaid | +8.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x168f…9e00backed No | 76c | 151$115 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.24 | 107 | 30.8%33 W · 74 L | -6.0wins | -0.06per pick | 36cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 8c | 144.9$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.26 | 150 | 47.3%71 W · 79 L | +6.5wins | +0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -13.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe8dd…ec86backed No | 79c | 125.76$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.55 | 23 | 30.4%7 W · 16 L | -1.7wins | -0.08per pick | 38cpaid | -60.2%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8575…87febacked No | 78c | 124.1$97 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$27.41 | 36 | 47.2%17 W · 19 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 76c | 110.21$84 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$26.45 | 322 | 28.9%93 W · 229 L | -16.0wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -38.6%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x081a…66d0backed Yes | 11c | 105$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.87 | 144 | 23.6%34 W · 110 L | -12.0wins | -0.08per pick | 32cpaid | -37.6%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x9e8e…8db8backed Yes | 11c | 95$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.75 | 55 | 47.3%26 W · 29 L | +7.8wins | +0.14per pick | 33cpaid | +23.7%equal weight | 61+0.10 edge/pick |
| 0x6e88…bd30backed Yes | 23c | 90$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.3 | 25 | 36%9 W · 16 L | +1.2wins | +0.05per pick | 31cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf155…76bdbacked No | 79c | 89.71$71 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.84 | 4 | 100%4 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +34.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 76c | 64$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15.36 | 479 | 38%182 W · 297 L | -11.3wins | -0.02per pick | 40cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6746…d842backed No | 75c | 53.33$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.33 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -1.1wins | -0.35per pick | 69cpaid | -55.6%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5566…7c29backed No | 80c | 40$32 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8 | 32 | 43.8%14 W · 18 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2b59…9db6backed No | 78c | 38.9$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.66 | 66 | 56.1%37 W · 29 L | +2.4wins | +0.04per pick | 52cpaid | +3.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x671a…2f1ebacked No | 80c | 37.8$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$7.56 | 39 | 46.2%18 W · 21 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 51cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6854…67d0backed No | 80c | 24.49$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.99 | 21 | 61.9%13 W · 8 L | +1.1wins | +0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -2.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in AI and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 4 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be 4 or more ChatGPT outages in May 2026?this page
- Will there be exactly 2 ChatGPT outages in May 2026?No won
- Will there be exactly 3 ChatGPT outages in May 2026?No won
- Will there be fewer than 2 ChatGPT outages in May 2026?Yes won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.