IPO · resolved market
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x15fa6bf8e2106d0d39e2fb2dcf7239eb31036a672280838f8d02bc4e0286e3c1
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $507,563
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $529,229
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $507,563 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 563 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xb1bf…f74bbacked Yes | 48c | 30,539$14,643 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$15,896.59 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf020…3212backed No | 52c | 28,151$14,634 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14,633.81 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d12…7d66backed No | 0c | 15,171$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x471b…b18fbacked Yes | 27c | 13,094$3,579 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,514.65 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -39%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 24c | 12,454$3,031 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9,423.47 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x9dfe…b3ddbacked Yes | 49c | 12,353$6,033 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$6,319.39 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +2.0wins | +0.40per pick | 40cpaid | +111.2%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe74d…22fdbacked Yes | 50c | 11,812$5,926 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5,885.43 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5021…9906backed No | 56c | 9,591$5,366 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,365.71 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…bf0bbacked No | 8c | 9,479$712 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$712.13 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf030…12e2backed Yes | 55c | 8,114$4,424 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,690.24 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4e25…d7a7backed No | 74c | 7,757$5,705 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$5,704.63 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +1.9wins | +0.39per pick | 41cpaid | +164.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2add…9b43backed Yes | 40c | 7,672$3,067 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,604.36 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -50%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x15ec…267dbacked Yes | 46c | 6,500$3,009 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,490.99 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed No | 61c | 6,226$3,780 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,780.46 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -6.9wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xb962…33d8backed Yes | 23c | 5,771$1,345 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4,426.42 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57e4…835ebacked No | 56c | 5,000$2,800 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,799.97 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 58cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked Yes | 34c | 4,963$1,669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,294.16 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xaea3…4c16backed Yes | 35c | 4,713$1,659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$3,054.17 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86e9…4cdfbacked Yes | 41c | 4,534$1,875 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,658.55 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2b51…e165backed Yes | 44c | 4,465$1,950 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,515.52 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8c44…fcd4backed Yes | 44c | 3,796$1,670 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,125.93 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.5wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -7.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked Yes | 45c | 3,743$1,671 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,071.86 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…03ccbacked Yes | 64c | 3,611$2,307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,303.86 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked No | 41c | 3,460$1,435 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,435.36 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Yes | 38c | 3,379$1,278 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,101.06 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x204b…6a5cbacked Yes | 79c | 3,372$2,678 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$693.36 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -11.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 52c | 3,288$1,704 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,704.25 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11a7…2c03backed Yes | 49c | 3,181$1,574 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,606.66 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e55…07acbacked Yes | 30c | 3,123$936 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,186.7 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.1wins | +0.38per pick | 62cpaid | +96.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb2…25b9backed Yes | 24c | 3,036$719 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,316.69 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3764…c5ebbacked No | 54c | 2,925$1,576 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,576.16 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 49c | 2,835$1,397 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,396.9 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked No | 34c | 2,728$937 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$936.7 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd14…76b4backed No | 61c | 2,701$1,650 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,650.4 | 33 | 39.4%13 W · 20 L | -0.8wins | -0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 31c | 2,656$819 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$818.96 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -82%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf6f1…0095backed Yes | 61c | 2,603$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,002.54 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.25per pick | 50cpaid | +27.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e1…d10dbacked Yes | 55c | 2,502$1,385 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,117.02 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -9.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc76…0ad0backed Yes | 29c | 2,456$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,735.58 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…9025backed Yes | 45c | 2,434$1,100 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,334.19 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 32cpaid | +61.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6a68…9209backed Yes | 56c | 2,429$1,358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,070.52 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +102.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf296…84f6backed Yes | 42c | 2,427$1,025 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,401.41 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.58per pick | 42cpaid | +136.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46a1…2736backed Yes | 33c | 2,309$753 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,555.54 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4530…9378backed Yes | 73c | 2,206$1,600 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$605.97 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.27per pick | 73cpaid | +37.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 33c | 2,188$720 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,468.63 | 81 | 29.6%24 W · 57 L | -3.7wins | -0.05per pick | 34cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8f0d…db1dbacked Yes | 41c | 2,178$903 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,275.5 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.19per pick | 38cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 50c | 2,157$1,081 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,080.8 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4b…8a81backed Yes | 41c | 2,094$853 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,240.45 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 38cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa52d…99dabacked Yes | 48c | 2,038$978 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,059.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | -7.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9de8…9b10backed Yes | 49c | 2,014$987 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,027.15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.08per pick | 26cpaid | -32%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59db…c353backed Yes | 33c | 2,010$666 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,343.54 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x56ad…f13ebacked Yes | 26c | 2,000$520 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,480 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc456…8996backed No | 3c | 2,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…0d04backed Yes | 55c | 1,790$980 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$810.01 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9996…bda1backed Yes | 41c | 1,694$691 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,002.2 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc83…bcd2backed Yes | 45c | 1,654$746 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$908.06 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -9.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 41c | 1,568$648 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$920.34 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd9b5…9db1backed No | 26c | 1,556$402 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$401.67 | 15 | 53.3%8 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 54cpaid | -27.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc087…dbbabacked Yes | 30c | 1,555$463 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,091.55 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.7wins | +0.70per pick | 30cpaid | +235.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 42c | 1,546$645 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$901.37 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x697b…d152backed Yes | 54c | 1,484$798 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$686.49 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.46per pick | 54cpaid | +86%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d3…1b0ebacked Yes | 71c | 1,400$988 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$411.26 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7f46…c6d3backed Yes | 32c | 1,241$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$841.09 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -22.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dd0…2b4bbacked Yes | 38c | 1,213$466 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$747.33 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.22per pick | 38cpaid | +31.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 52c | 1,198$621 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$621.3 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x0471…1f46backed Yes | 59c | 1,187$700 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$486.9 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3955…7f3dbacked Yes | 44c | 1,141$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$641.47 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.41per pick | 59cpaid | +82%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5f45…cabcbacked Yes | 28c | 1,118$313 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$805.04 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3069…f8efbacked Yes | 45c | 1,111$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$611.11 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x786b…9519backed Yes | 46c | 1,096$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$596.12 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16f0…aba5backed Yes | 42c | 1,020$431 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$589.01 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4da7…355ebacked Yes | 43c | 1,000$430 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$570 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.6wins | +0.57per pick | 43cpaid | +132.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x982a…6851backed No | 12c | 1,000$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.83 | 6 | 0%0 W · 6 L | -0.7wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d5d…d1adbacked Yes | 55c | 999.61$549 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$450.17 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.45per pick | 55cpaid | +81.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05c7…4421backed Yes | 50c | 984.99$492 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$492.5 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e1f…8fdebacked No | 36c | 982.82$356 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$356.11 | 21 | 38.1%8 W · 13 L | -2.0wins | -0.10per pick | 48cpaid | -47.6%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8231…652bbacked Yes | 40c | 939.5$375 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$564.9 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 47c | 912.23$425 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$425.28 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9f…a025backed Yes | 45c | 906.74$408 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.71 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeae5…0720backed Yes | 47c | 900$423 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$477 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -2.0wins | -0.15per pick | 43cpaid | -57.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x84da…0a03backed Yes | 45c | 893.79$402 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.39 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd6d…ed0bbacked Yes | 21c | 879.75$185 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$695 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +16.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c1…c53fbacked Yes | 48c | 854.17$410 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$444.17 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaa6a…21c3backed Yes | 24c | 844$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$641.44 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 49cpaid | +47.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f03…1794backed Yes | 39c | 827.56$322 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$505.26 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x68c2…1711backed Yes | 26c | 825.24$211 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$614.43 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.8wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +39.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe821…b27ebacked No | 68c | 823.14$559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$559.15 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7546…2d93backed Yes | 24c | 821$197 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$623.96 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.8wins | +0.76per pick | 24cpaid | +316.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x04c2…1478backed Yes | 50c | 807.45$400 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$407.45 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.50per pick | 50cpaid | +101.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe556…4659backed Yes | 24c | 806.66$194 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$612.69 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed No | 39c | 789.07$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$304.84 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb0d6…7475backed No | 26c | 770.31$196 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.49 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | -1.8wins | -0.13per pick | 41cpaid | -61.4%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf5e0…41a8backed Yes | 49c | 748.57$369 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$379.15 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.30per pick | 45cpaid | +30.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed No | 46c | 740.32$343 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$343.46 | 47 | 14.9%7 W · 40 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x81e9…1812backed Yes | 49c | 739.79$366 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$374.23 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 46cpaid | +30.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ee9…197fbacked Yes | 43c | 736.54$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$420.81 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +5.2wins | +0.12per pick | 37cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x76fd…e8c4backed Yes | 25c | 721$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$540.75 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | 0%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x06c1…f1f2backed No | 75c | 721$541 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$540.75 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.5wins | -0.15per pick | 48cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7a03…a455backed Yes | 48c | 705.57$339 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x82f6…e5d4backed Yes | 29c | 698.09$200 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$498.09 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.33per pick | 17cpaid | +74.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6294…33f3backed Yes | 43c | 691.23$297 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$394.35 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 55cpaid | -7.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?this page
- Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.