IPO · resolved market
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x586555817c3d83541254d75bbf52089c209d836d395e604a52bee72518f0e898
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $317,283
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $174,930
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $317,283 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 138 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xe821…b27ebacked Yes | 5c | 18,300$982 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$981.82 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 2c | 12,118$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.39 | 64 | 0%0 W · 64 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf74c…434cbacked Yes | 4c | 10,456$388 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$388.09 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x28ca…0d04backed Yes | 6c | 10,014$645 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$644.95 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 1c | 9,400$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.64 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7468…7735backed Yes | 2c | 7,994$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.07 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3764…c5ebbacked Yes | 4c | 7,492$322 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$322.23 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb143…3c17backed Yes | 3c | 6,765$183 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2061…8ec9backed Yes | 2c | 6,382$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.08 | 15 | 13.3%2 W · 13 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 13cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9070…e32cbacked Yes | 3c | 6,038$159 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$159.5 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d78…ffa6backed Yes | 7c | 5,791$381 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$380.52 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 9c | 4,979$463 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$463.45 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e0…362abacked Yes | 4c | 4,956$202 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$202.28 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x471b…b18fbacked Yes | 4c | 4,673$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$184.89 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -39%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x469c…309bbacked Yes | 5c | 3,552$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.65 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 9c | 3,533$305 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$305.03 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae3…f83dbacked Yes | 4c | 3,445$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf630…086bbacked Yes | 3c | 3,419$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16bd…e288backed Yes | 5c | 3,333$177 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.65 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc4ea…62c5backed Yes | 2c | 3,291$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.37 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b6…1fdabacked Yes | 3c | 2,869$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -67.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8e91…3335backed Yes | 5c | 2,500$129 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$128.52 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9c47…f7e9backed Yes | 13c | 2,312$299 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$298.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x24fb…973ebacked Yes | 4c | 2,229$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.26 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5021…9906backed Yes | 3c | 2,140$74 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.44 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1873…2573backed Yes | 2c | 2,132$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x241b…9b9abacked Yes | 4c | 2,094$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4047…7293backed Yes | 6c | 2,061$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.9 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.20per pick | 30cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17eb…3951backed Yes | 4c | 2,032$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.97 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 5c | 2,016$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.51 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -82%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89f0…b659backed Yes | 2c | 2,011$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0794…eef4backed Yes | 4c | 2,000$78 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$78 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -59%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x128e…abfabacked Yes | 6c | 2,000$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x29c5…90babacked Yes | 3c | 1,994$65 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…a277backed Yes | 7c | 1,915$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f24…ef8dbacked Yes | 5c | 1,887$96 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95.73 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb473…046ebacked Yes | 2c | 1,821$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,801$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.48 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc29…1c34backed Yes | 3c | 1,760$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.25 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4b91…982dbacked Yes | 3c | 1,664$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.38 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdce7…f553backed Yes | 4c | 1,551$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes | 3c | 1,549$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.98 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe74d…22fdbacked Yes | 5c | 1,539$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.59 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x60d6…9a68backed Yes | 5c | 1,538$70 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5750…a5d5backed Yes | 7c | 1,501$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8951…6ceebacked Yes | 9c | 1,501$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.67 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14f3…5d4fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,483$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaea3…4c16backed Yes | 11c | 1,468$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.03 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a3…7739backed Yes | 4c | 1,347$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.82 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x03d1…2c64backed Yes | 4c | 1,323$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3776…edb3backed Yes | 4c | 1,306$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.48 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd65…927fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,200$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.7 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3a…3b17backed Yes | 4c | 1,118$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$44.73 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x60e5…dad8backed Yes | 3c | 1,104$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.8 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x786b…9519backed Yes | 3c | 1,093$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 6c | 1,035$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.06 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x558c…ba08backed Yes | 6c | 1,034$62 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$61.87 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a8b…48d0backed Yes | 5c | 1,024$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2a45…6b18backed Yes | 10c | 1,002$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4751…dc3bbacked Yes | 2c | 1,002$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66c1…2c72backed Yes | 4c | 1,000$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 9 | 0%0 W · 9 L | -0.7wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46a1…2736backed Yes | 8c | 1,000$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x623a…5e86backed Yes | 2c | 1,000$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d8d…8f77backed Yes | 3c | 999.99$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 18cpaid | -53.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33c7…4a50backed Yes | 6c | 999.99$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7577…8fb9backed Yes | 4c | 995$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.8 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | +0.5wins | +0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -35.1%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5f20…b2f4backed Yes | 4c | 993.92$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd706…fac2backed Yes | 10c | 981.78$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb5b1…7ef5backed Yes | 7c | 950.69$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8c4e…ff92backed Yes | 4c | 945.43$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.09 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b73…3b00backed Yes | 4c | 940.28$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.69 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2490…4918backed Yes | 5c | 915.33$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6cff…c3dabacked Yes | 2c | 886.49$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.62 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -57.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x57e1…9a45backed Yes | 3c | 882.18$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x86a9…50aebacked Yes | 2c | 850$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xccf4…6741backed Yes | 4c | 826.82$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f4b…f9bfbacked Yes | 5c | 811.8$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x71c2…735dbacked Yes | 3c | 761.17$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd172…786fbacked Yes | 5c | 758.56$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7e5f…957cbacked Yes | 4c | 728.54$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x19a3…8572backed Yes | 5c | 691.98$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -17.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x673e…5db0backed Yes | 6c | 678.01$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.0wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8aa2…5a0bbacked Yes | 5c | 676.63$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4f99…5936backed Yes | 3c | 652.64$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.11per pick | 31cpaid | -64.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7b0f…145cbacked Yes | 2c | 630.99$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.84 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x84da…0a03backed Yes | 3c | 599.98$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.91 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -14.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x51dc…423bbacked Yes | 4c | 540.33$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x25dc…e33bbacked Yes | 10c | 500$49 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.8 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -3.1wins | -0.18per pick | 36cpaid | -57.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xd511…241cbacked Yes | 2c | 500$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb3f3…bb19backed Yes | 5c | 500$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +1.2wins | +0.29per pick | 21cpaid | +150.7%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb37f…fdcfbacked Yes | 3c | 500$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.23per pick | 48cpaid | -64.3%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xec2c…4676backed Yes | 4c | 499.99$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.5 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…dec3backed Yes | 5c | 475.28$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.67 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e24…1b1cbacked Yes | 5c | 474.95$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.67 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc57b…8281backed Yes | 6c | 450$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.82 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0066…20a1backed Yes | 11c | 429.99$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.3 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x326b…33ebbacked Yes | 5c | 429.69$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x539b…624cbacked Yes | 3c | 401.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.31 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.4wins | -0.12per pick | 22cpaid | -79.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xd1ee…a8aebacked Yes | 5c | 400$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 13 | 7.7%1 W · 12 L | -0.9wins | -0.07per pick | 15cpaid | -90.2%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x964f…79a8backed Yes | 3c | 400$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?this page
- Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?Yes won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.