IPO · resolved market
Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on IPO day?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa4ddb063d69b1909799d196274b26405601dee7b4e099eb83bec9c24b925eae5
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $237,751
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $161,320
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $237,751 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 60 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x8cfe…d3adbacked Yes | 4c | 30,833$1,126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,125.56 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb45…b5d6backed Yes | 3c | 15,837$495 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$495.24 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x929b…7834backed Yes | 2c | 14,636$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256.3 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 2c | 12,773$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$192.49 | 64 | 0%0 W · 64 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x05c7…4421backed Yes | 3c | 7,868$271 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$270.84 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf030…12e2backed Yes | 4c | 7,778$321 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$321.46 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2add…9b43backed Yes | 4c | 5,045$207 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.56 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -50%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f45…cabcbacked Yes | 5c | 4,606$227 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$226.53 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 2c | 4,458$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.88 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe025…f39cbacked Yes | 3c | 4,241$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.31 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb0ed…105abacked Yes | 2c | 3,579$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.99 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 14cpaid | -23.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6f03…1794backed Yes | 6c | 2,777$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.78 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd046…c496backed Yes | 1c | 2,277$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeae7…2800backed Yes | 1c | 2,143$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0e39…0055backed Yes | 2c | 2,040$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe071…dec3backed Yes | 3c | 2,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xec15…9b0cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,969$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc4…8e5cbacked Yes | 5c | 1,962$90 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.63 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 2c | 1,958$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.09 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9deb…8108backed Yes | 3c | 1,925$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d4d…b3f4backed Yes | 2c | 1,899$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.62 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 3c | 1,719$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.21 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -82%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5067…ba4fbacked Yes | 2c | 1,639$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 6cpaid | -10.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0c13…8997backed Yes | 1c | 1,625$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaea3…4c16backed Yes | 2c | 1,604$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.08 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdc15…c86cbacked Yes | 2c | 1,522$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -57.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a97…3b04backed Yes | 6c | 1,372$87 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$87.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | -29.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5415…2a6ebacked Yes | 1c | 1,324$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.72 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb1e2…b7fabacked Yes | 2c | 1,300$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.8 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -0.4wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8abf…d973backed Yes | 3c | 1,236$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.32 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0c0a…d0fcbacked Yes | 3c | 1,212$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x932f…2cd8backed Yes | 4c | 1,138$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a7d…d227backed Yes | 3c | 1,101$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.13 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…dc46backed Yes | 2c | 1,060$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x396f…7f78backed Yes | 1c | 1,000$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33c7…4a50backed Yes | 3c | 1,000$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3b73…1f20backed Yes | 2c | 972$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8231…652bbacked Yes | 3c | 947.41$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.42 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.8wins | -0.12per pick | 26cpaid | -64.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7ac4…4f44backed Yes | 2c | 844.12$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.35 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4b91…982dbacked Yes | 2c | 825.92$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.81 | 26 | 0%0 W · 26 L | -1.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbaa2…1104backed Yes | 2c | 824.67$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x02cf…712ebacked Yes | 3c | 807$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.02 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c37…d40fbacked Yes | 2c | 769.94$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.97 | 28 | 0%0 W · 28 L | -1.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb41e…11fdbacked Yes | 2c | 760.91$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.83 | 10 | 0%0 W · 10 L | -1.7wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 1c | 744.38$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.31 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x941b…e827backed Yes | 3c | 676.65$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x63b0…4cf2backed Yes | 3c | 666.14$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xddc0…7e68backed Yes | 2c | 651.97$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 2c | 641.16$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.03 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb68d…9e33backed Yes | 2c | 582.52$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.66 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e27…c659backed Yes | 4c | 526.32$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3f88…cdcbbacked Yes | 2c | 521.05$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.6wins | -0.09per pick | 23cpaid | -77.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x59db…1d13backed Yes | 3c | 500$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9ad6…cc62backed Yes | 3c | 496$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.51 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -38.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6763…5f9ebacked Yes | 3c | 422$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 3c | 420$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.38 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x48bf…e96bbacked Yes | 3c | 409$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7c7b…716ebacked Yes | 3c | 409$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2524…813abacked Yes | 3c | 395$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa4c6…4d97backed Yes | 3c | 383.37$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on IPO day?this page
- Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?Yes won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.