IPO · resolved market
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x235693693a07f40782ff4a91d992a98a627d77a4cde305af3dd675eb982ec283
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $406,109
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $345,967
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $406,109 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 472 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x28ca…0d04backed Yes | 15c | 15,713$2,376 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,375.76 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -36.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb1bf…f74bbacked Yes | 28c | 13,427$3,697 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,696.74 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 31cpaid | -30.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x684b…a1fabacked Yes | 28c | 13,412$3,769 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,769.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.28per pick | 28cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x59db…c353backed Yes | 30c | 11,248$3,379 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,378.57 | 15 | 46.7%7 W · 8 L | +1.6wins | +0.11per pick | 36cpaid | +1.5%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3b43…0d4cbacked Yes | 0c | 10,300$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5021…9906backed Yes | 36c | 9,800$3,499 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$3,499.04 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…bf0bbacked Yes | 4c | 8,797$329 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$329.04 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2add…9b43backed Yes | 29c | 7,471$2,154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,153.73 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -50%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe821…b27ebacked Yes | 25c | 6,911$1,715 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,714.55 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -53.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2b51…e165backed Yes | 38c | 6,029$2,295 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,295.06 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x469c…309bbacked Yes | 24c | 5,843$1,391 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,390.86 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb962…33d8backed Yes | 30c | 5,807$1,761 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,761.46 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.4wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x57e4…835ebacked Yes | 37c | 5,000$1,850 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,849.99 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 58cpaid | -33.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6bab…0fe5backed Yes | 23c | 4,414$1,033 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,033.28 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.18per pick | 57cpaid | +10.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e16…5026backed Yes | 24c | 3,684$888 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$888 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5011…220ebacked Yes | 28c | 3,501$978 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$977.94 | 36 | 27.8%10 W · 26 L | -5.1wins | -0.14per pick | 42cpaid | -23.5%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x87dd…e210backed Yes | 24c | 3,483$828 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$827.8 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0845…6b6fbacked No | 62c | 3,396$2,111 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,285.18 | 26 | 26.9%7 W · 19 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 29cpaid | -40.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x86e9…4cdfbacked Yes | 19c | 3,043$578 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$578.13 | 11 | 45.5%5 W · 6 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaea3…4c16backed Yes | 29c | 3,000$872 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$871.97 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56ad…f13ebacked Yes | 52c | 3,000$1,559 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,558.6 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +92.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf030…12e2backed Yes | 13c | 3,000$390 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$390 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6a68…9209backed Yes | 34c | 2,971$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000.11 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.29per pick | 38cpaid | +102.1%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x511f…cbe1backed No | 73c | 2,935$2,141 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$794.23 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | -1.0wins | -0.08per pick | 46cpaid | -46.7%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x11a7…2c03backed Yes | 33c | 2,669$877 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$876.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.13per pick | 54cpaid | +9.9%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1fa1…1fa9backed Yes | 16c | 2,630$430 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$430.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a8a…7699backed No | 67c | 2,500$1,669 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$831.49 | 3 | 100%3 W · 0 L | +1.0wins | +0.34per pick | 66cpaid | +50.9%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x05ab…8145backed Yes | 44c | 2,446$1,076 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,076.31 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 38cpaid | -8.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33b2…38aabacked Yes | 37c | 2,329$872 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$871.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc76…0ad0backed Yes | 51c | 2,271$1,164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,163.71 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +1.3wins | +0.18per pick | 39cpaid | +30.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked No | 79c | 2,250$1,788 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$462.02 | 14 | 28.6%4 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 29cpaid | -46.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3764…c5ebbacked Yes | 28c | 2,134$607 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$607.5 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x471b…b18fbacked Yes | 22c | 2,110$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$460.33 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -39%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c4b…8a81backed Yes | 26c | 2,079$532 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$532.06 | 8 | 62.5%5 W · 3 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 38cpaid | +61.9%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x764b…6badbacked No | 73c | 2,074$1,522 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$551.71 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 51cpaid | -32.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8c4e…ff92backed Yes | 39c | 2,047$801 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$801 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 24c | 2,015$480 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$479.68 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x0794…eef4backed Yes | 31c | 2,000$620 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$620 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -59%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x128e…abfabacked Yes | 31c | 2,000$616 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$615.56 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x28bf…4a4ebacked No | 71c | 1,971$1,395 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$576 | 38 | 47.4%18 W · 20 L | -1.5wins | -0.04per pick | 51cpaid | -21%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9996…bda1backed Yes | 24c | 1,891$450 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$450 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5375…aeeabacked Yes | 2c | 1,841$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe907…cff6backed Yes | 1c | 1,799$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.33 | 44 | 18.2%8 W · 36 L | +0.7wins | +0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -71.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfd55…f905backed No | 77c | 1,769$1,358 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$410.99 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | -0.6wins | -0.02per pick | 49cpaid | -24%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb618…4149backed Yes | 1c | 1,727$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe74d…22fdbacked No | 78c | 1,698$1,332 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$366.65 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbd65…927fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,679$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.76 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x43b1…a277backed Yes | 56c | 1,570$880 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$880.4 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 36c | 1,566$563 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$563.29 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x15ec…267dbacked Yes | 35c | 1,540$535 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$534.6 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 48cpaid | +24.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd5b9…e44ebacked Yes | 54c | 1,417$759 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$759 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 44cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee98…113dbacked Yes | 53c | 1,400$738 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$737.99 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 53cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 51c | 1,286$659 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$627.12 | 32 | 50%16 W · 16 L | -1.4wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | -25.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x04ec…580fbacked Yes | 21c | 1,267$261 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.5 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -1.9wins | -0.27per pick | 42cpaid | -80.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c7…67ddbacked No | 76c | 1,249$949 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$300.36 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17eb…3951backed Yes | 25c | 1,202$301 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$301 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x16f0…aba5backed Yes | 38c | 1,145$431 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$431.28 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.10per pick | 40cpaid | +18.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Yes | 23c | 1,114$260 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$260.21 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8951…6ceebacked Yes | 38c | 1,111$422 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$422.28 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 42cpaid | -57.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed No | 70c | 1,084$754 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$329.29 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -82%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8674…0d1ebacked No | 54c | 1,066$575 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$491.49 | 18 | 66.7%12 W · 6 L | +2.1wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +0.8%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3ba7…dec0backed Yes | 40c | 1,050$415 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$415.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x786b…9519backed Yes | 38c | 1,043$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -45.2%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe556…4659backed Yes | 40c | 1,023$408 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$407.53 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.07per pick | 27cpaid | +38.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf2aa…21fbbacked No | 63c | 1,007$633 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$373.56 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.6wins | +0.22per pick | 45cpaid | +52.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe72…9025backed Yes | 13c | 1,000$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.35per pick | 32cpaid | +61.5%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6ede…4284backed Yes | 30c | 1,000$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.7wins | -0.33per pick | 33cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2525…b919backed Yes | 36c | 1,000$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8138…3c88backed Yes | 46c | 1,000$460 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$459.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.46per pick | 46cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7609…6c4ebacked Yes | 16c | 997.35$164 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$163.58 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -32.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dcf…a7bdbacked No | 75c | 979.25$734 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$245.52 | 25 | 52%13 W · 12 L | -1.4wins | -0.05per pick | 57cpaid | -25%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3069…f8efbacked Yes | 31c | 967.74$300 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$300 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.5wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe5a…1b61backed No | 47c | 888.4$422 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$466.54 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.53per pick | 47cpaid | +110.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0471…1f46backed Yes | 26c | 840.55$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.96 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -43.5%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8163…9bd0backed Yes | 20c | 836.58$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$164.56 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf579…9989backed Yes | 46c | 834.88$383 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$383.02 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 53cpaid | -12.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf74c…434cbacked Yes | 26c | 800$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$208 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3cca…c831backed Yes | 25c | 785.59$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$199.9 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.5wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7365…64dabacked Yes | 19c | 772.31$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.21 | 21 | 23.8%5 W · 16 L | +0.3wins | +0.01per pick | 22cpaid | -43.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfc8a…8f0bbacked No | 46c | 744.63$343 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$402.1 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xea90…0f8fbacked Yes | 52c | 743$386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$386.36 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +13.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked No | 74c | 738.87$548 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$190.82 | 22 | 45.5%10 W · 12 L | +0.9wins | +0.04per pick | 41cpaid | -23.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x21ff…0d71backed Yes | 30c | 737.46$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$220.22 | 57 | 31.6%18 W · 39 L | -6.9wins | -0.12per pick | 44cpaid | -51.7%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xe102…71dfbacked No | 48c | 722.81$347 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$375.86 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 43cpaid | -65.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x942e…be27backed No | 71c | 711$508 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$202.9 | 30 | 56.7%17 W · 13 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 57cpaid | -1.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f3a…3b17backed Yes | 31c | 708.66$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.69 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -42.2%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1f9f…a025backed Yes | 28c | 706.63$198 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$197.86 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 26cpaid | -44.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7a03…a455backed Yes | 28c | 676.11$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.12per pick | 38cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x60d6…9a68backed Yes | 31c | 654.49$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4ae3…f83dbacked Yes | 21c | 653.52$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.24 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10b2…4cebbacked Yes | 19c | 647.16$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$121.58 | 17 | 17.6%3 W · 14 L | -1.0wins | -0.06per pick | 24cpaid | -58.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x6f03…1794backed Yes | 17c | 634.78$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x48e3…03ccbacked Yes | 19c | 633$122 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$122.49 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -20.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xcd10…fc0bbacked Yes | 23c | 620.1$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.46 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | +0.7wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -18.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8683…3206backed Yes | 24c | 617.56$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.08per pick | 58cpaid | -31.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcfff…673dbacked No | 76c | 608$460 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$147.88 | 34 | 52.9%18 W · 16 L | +1.1wins | +0.03per pick | 50cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xacb5…05eebacked Yes | 25c | 600$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.15per pick | 51cpaid | +7.4%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x46a1…2736backed Yes | 22c | 599.99$132 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$132 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd706…fac2backed Yes | 53c | 585.27$310 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$310 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 52cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9f20…12c3backed No | 70c | 583.42$406 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$177.2 | 17 | 52.9%9 W · 8 L | +0.3wins | +0.02per pick | 51cpaid | -6.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?this page
- Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?Yes won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.