IPO · resolved market
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x8e4a810cd4169d2ab31e05ad183b383169e9ec8919a62c07ff2e843dd919a8ae
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $323,400
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $208,922
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $323,400 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 47 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xc4ea…62c5backed Yes | 0c | 47,124$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.15 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 10cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 0c | 42,472$192 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$191.55 | 64 | 0%0 W · 64 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a86…dea8backed Yes | 2c | 15,561$360 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$360.18 | 19 | 26.3%5 W · 14 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 23cpaid | -8.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 1c | 12,336$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.12 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7468…7735backed Yes | 1c | 11,110$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$99.99 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb45…b5d6backed Yes | 1c | 10,000$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 14 | 0%0 W · 14 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd65…927fbacked Yes | 1c | 9,380$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.9 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6089…2de5backed Yes | 1c | 7,953$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x469c…309bbacked Yes | 3c | 7,143$225 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$225.29 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +1.0wins | +0.16per pick | 34cpaid | +17.6%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7b02…4991backed Yes | 3c | 6,635$206 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$206.12 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4029…fc47backed Yes | 2c | 6,011$115 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7dc4…8e5cbacked Yes | 4c | 5,969$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.03 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbd7e…875dbacked Yes | 0c | 5,840$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.04 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16bd…e288backed Yes | 4c | 5,570$201 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$201.28 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1dc7…302dbacked Yes | 0c | 4,172$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc794…c7ebbacked Yes | 0c | 4,068$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfc29…1c34backed Yes | 1c | 3,821$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.99 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7d78…ffa6backed Yes | 5c | 3,633$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$194.68 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17eb…3951backed Yes | 5c | 3,396$175 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$175 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.3wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8e91…3335backed Yes | 1c | 3,000$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.03 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x98f7…ff8dbacked Yes | 1c | 2,767$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9f24…ef8dbacked Yes | 0c | 2,570$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x386f…e018backed Yes | 1c | 2,540$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e24…1b1cbacked Yes | 1c | 2,500$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 2c | 2,102$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.35 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -82%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0794…eef4backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -59%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe6f0…c557backed Yes | 1c | 1,867$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3776…edb3backed Yes | 2c | 1,712$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.05 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa0c4…978fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,535$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.64 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc02b…37a6backed Yes | 2c | 1,370$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e0…362abacked Yes | 1c | 1,250$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54ee…9c50backed Yes | 3c | 1,013$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.65 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa7a3…7739backed Yes | 1c | 999.99$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.5wins | +0.21per pick | 50cpaid | +4.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x013d…3e88backed Yes | 3c | 999.99$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6aff…b470backed Yes | 2c | 950$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b5…8b47backed Yes | 2c | 900$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 2c | 888.01$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.57 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x26aa…a343backed Yes | 1c | 842.98$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6602…089fbacked Yes | 2c | 746.87$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xca8f…d963backed Yes | 2c | 745.41$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.68 | 33 | 3%1 W · 32 L | -0.4wins | -0.01per pick | 4cpaid | -61.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0b79…a118backed Yes | 4c | 657.33$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x70b6…aa2fbacked Yes | 3c | 586.02$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.74 | 21 | 0%0 W · 21 L | -1.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0a32…2516backed Yes | 3c | 424.42$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5279…73a3backed Yes | 5c | 405.98$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a1f…1a9fbacked Yes | 3c | 348.58$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.02 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 11cpaid | -81.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5a…4c29backed Yes | 5c | 247.78$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.23 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -27.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x614a…d202backed Yes | 6c | 166.96$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day?this page
- Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?Yes won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on IPO day?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.