IPO · resolved market
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on IPO day?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xe51f231db21003948460569107975a20ed138b642b2952c4f0798da8c64d8591
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $1,105,145
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $987,135
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $1,105,145 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a prediction-market account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 477 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 9c | 21,946$2,034 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,034.02 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3748…d0b8backed Yes | 1c | 8,633$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5f45…cabcbacked Yes | 11c | 8,443$961 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$961.35 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf030…12e2backed Yes | 15c | 8,087$1,228 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,227.8 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2add…9b43backed Yes | 22c | 7,679$1,674 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,674.05 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -50%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x05c7…4421backed Yes | 10c | 7,332$733 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$733.2 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x76cf…9452backed Yes | 19c | 7,271$1,386 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,385.76 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f7…6f09backed Yes | 24c | 6,776$1,649 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,648.51 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5021…9906backed Yes | 21c | 6,422$1,320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,320.21 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f39…8ad7backed Yes | 17c | 5,770$1,000 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,000 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.9wins | -0.14per pick | 14cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3764…c5ebbacked Yes | 5c | 5,346$276 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$276.48 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | -0.7wins | -0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 2c | 5,055$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.86 | 64 | 0%0 W · 64 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe74d…22fdbacked Yes | 12c | 5,010$609 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$609.08 | 18 | 38.9%7 W · 11 L | +1.2wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9996…bda1backed Yes | 13c | 4,723$593 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$593 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 22cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd9e6…12b1backed Yes | 5c | 4,542$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x823e…341ebacked Yes | 6c | 4,514$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$251.91 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7017…c3fcbacked Yes | 6c | 4,104$230 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$229.82 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0fb2…25b9backed Yes | 5c | 4,012$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$218.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.10per pick | 23cpaid | +40.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7695…b1cdbacked Yes | 6c | 3,956$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.54 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xac4a…bf1ebacked Yes | 8c | 3,953$319 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$318.95 | 41 | 12.2%5 W · 36 L | -4.9wins | -0.12per pick | 24cpaid | -81.4%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x8144…8472backed Yes | 10c | 3,876$394 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$394.03 | 20 | 30%6 W · 14 L | -1.7wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -59.7%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xdd4c…83efbacked Yes | 7c | 3,717$242 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$241.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd82d…b8cabacked Yes | 6c | 3,710$208 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$207.76 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8c2…2d1cbacked Yes | 24c | 3,606$857 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$856.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.24per pick | 24cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa2c1…c53fbacked Yes | 17c | 3,543$600 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$600 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.18per pick | 32cpaid | +4.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xfacf…2ad4backed Yes | 6c | 3,542$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb89d…2da3backed Yes | 6c | 3,518$211 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$211.08 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3bda…d6f9backed Yes | 7c | 3,439$241 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$240.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7102…6b46backed Yes | 6c | 3,437$218 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$217.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46a1…2736backed Yes | 6c | 3,394$214 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$213.57 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8565…0c43backed Yes | 20c | 3,345$680 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$680.49 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.4wins | -0.04per pick | 40cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5146…ac5ebacked Yes | 7c | 3,306$222 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$221.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaea3…4c16backed Yes | 14c | 3,259$457 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.65 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6997…da91backed Yes | 6c | 3,198$179 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.09 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3379…549abacked Yes | 22c | 3,162$700 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$700 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x17fd…4469backed Yes | 6c | 3,128$181 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$181.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0721…2ec2backed Yes | 6c | 3,125$194 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$193.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5351…c7edbacked Yes | 15c | 3,102$456 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$456.28 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -37%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbd65…927fbacked Yes | 5c | 3,051$161 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.11 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.2wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bba…d8d5backed Yes | 6c | 3,050$171 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$170.8 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x71ed…d338backed Yes | 18c | 2,982$536 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$535.66 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -62.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3a3b…fdb7backed Yes | 6c | 2,961$184 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$183.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe124…23ccbacked Yes | 7c | 2,935$191 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190.78 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7f7b…78b0backed Yes | 6c | 2,842$165 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$165.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64ae…490fbacked Yes | 7c | 2,806$185 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$185.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x41de…ca47backed Yes | 6c | 2,749$154 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.94 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x929b…7834backed Yes | 4c | 2,717$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.39 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd97d…b5bbbacked Yes | 7c | 2,703$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$186.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6c96…f720backed Yes | 6c | 2,695$151 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a77…9ef1backed Yes | 14c | 2,652$384 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$384.38 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -76.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb8d3…1b0ebacked Yes | 9c | 2,601$245 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$244.84 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3106…3032backed Yes | 6c | 2,549$147 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…0550backed Yes | 13c | 2,527$338 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$337.6 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x467e…661abacked Yes | 6c | 2,507$140 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$140.39 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x462a…6b8ebacked Yes | 6c | 2,497$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$142.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xec44…ab84backed Yes | 6c | 2,487$149 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$149.22 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8538…3481backed Yes | 7c | 2,422$170 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$169.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd436…440cbacked Yes | 6c | 2,410$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$134.96 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc6f4…547bbacked Yes | 6c | 2,343$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.42 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd845…1ce2backed Yes | 7c | 2,253$153 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$153.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e91…3335backed Yes | 16c | 2,250$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$349.84 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4ff…1976backed Yes | 7c | 2,224$152 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$152.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x094b…141dbacked Yes | 6c | 2,218$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x128e…abfabacked Yes | 16c | 2,216$361 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$361.06 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xab02…0ab4backed Yes | 7c | 2,209$150 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$150.21 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9898…0a7dbacked Yes | 9c | 2,200$205 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$205.4 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 19cpaid | -25.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf029…3d82backed Yes | 6c | 2,174$139 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$139.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x13b1…a1abbacked Yes | 7c | 2,150$142 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd8b1…a596backed Yes | 5c | 2,146$116 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$115.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2e0d…75a5backed Yes | 7c | 2,138$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf253…c147backed Yes | 6c | 2,127$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.63 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 12c | 2,111$249 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$248.51 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -82%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xdca9…bb8cbacked Yes | 6c | 2,108$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.05 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebbe…3ef2backed Yes | 6c | 2,085$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$116.76 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf096…851dbacked Yes | 7c | 2,078$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.38 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc934…4d30backed Yes | 6c | 2,072$118 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e01…787fbacked Yes | 6c | 2,044$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3e16…5026backed Yes | 8c | 2,038$158 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$157.91 | 13 | 38.5%5 W · 8 L | +0.5wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -13%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc456…8996backed Yes | 1c | 2,000$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 19 | 15.8%3 W · 16 L | -2.3wins | -0.12per pick | 28cpaid | -78.3%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x45f3…d05dbacked Yes | 6c | 2,000$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1a86…7211backed Yes | 6c | 1,976$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.03 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37c1…bc5cbacked Yes | 7c | 1,973$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$136.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c26…e71dbacked Yes | 6c | 1,931$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c79…fdf7backed Yes | 3c | 1,913$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.79 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -43.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc36…3978backed Yes | 6c | 1,895$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x54d3…d9cabacked Yes | 6c | 1,854$104 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.82 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 14c | 1,835$252 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$252.07 | 47 | 14.9%7 W · 40 L | -4.1wins | -0.09per pick | 24cpaid | -42.4%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xbb97…7cabbacked Yes | 6c | 1,818$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.81 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4818…bf0bbacked Yes | 5c | 1,817$89 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$89.04 | 11 | 9.1%1 W · 10 L | -1.3wins | -0.11per pick | 21cpaid | -76.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x7f8e…20e5backed Yes | 6c | 1,796$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1281…ab7bbacked Yes | 6c | 1,794$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2be8…46bebacked Yes | 7c | 1,779$125 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$124.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6eb8…0474backed Yes | 6c | 1,735$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$107.47 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x17a6…56b7backed Yes | 6c | 1,734$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.84 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7f0…11d6backed Yes | 6c | 1,728$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2770…e75bbacked Yes | 6c | 1,726$102 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$101.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf1db…cb55backed Yes | 6c | 1,704$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb59a…b7c6backed Yes | 6c | 1,688$103 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$103.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6e28…6335backed Yes | 6c | 1,644$99 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeada…76ccbacked Yes | 6c | 1,640$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on IPO day?this page
- Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?Yes won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.