IPO · resolved market
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on IPO day?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x0fbeade92bd77dc81450460c1f04177cff657b7ddba7448eb6e87ae9a2d6325a
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- IPOevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $609,307
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $540,579
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $609,307 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 223 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in IPO is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in IPO | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x5f45…cabcbacked Yes | 10c | 27,942$2,848 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$2,848.42 | 11 | 36.4%4 W · 7 L | +0.4wins | +0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -18.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf797…0bf2backed Yes | 4c | 15,049$589 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.6 | 41 | 31.7%13 W · 28 L | +2.8wins | +0.07per pick | 25cpaid | -21.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x929b…7834backed Yes | 3c | 10,484$279 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$279.09 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf030…12e2backed Yes | 7c | 7,783$518 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$518.13 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -55.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2add…9b43backed Yes | 12c | 7,489$897 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$897.36 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 21cpaid | -50%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x88c4…1c47backed Yes | 4c | 4,522$163 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$162.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x932f…2cd8backed Yes | 8c | 4,176$320 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$320.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f03…1794backed Yes | 10c | 3,812$400 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$400 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 13cpaid | -63.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 2c | 3,730$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.56 | 64 | 0%0 W · 64 L | -0.8wins | -0.01per pick | 1cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x827b…1ad2backed Yes | 4c | 3,719$134 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$133.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xea1b…7a62backed Yes | 4c | 3,658$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.35 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9739…159fbacked Yes | 1c | 3,600$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.9 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2107…ee71backed Yes | 4c | 3,553$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$129.64 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x813d…ff4ebacked Yes | 4c | 3,493$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$125.75 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5452…deedbacked Yes | 4c | 3,297$119 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$118.69 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5415…2a6ebacked Yes | 5c | 3,220$157 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156.53 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -27.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x05c7…4421backed Yes | 9c | 3,200$280 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$280.19 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -42.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb704…e904backed Yes | 4c | 3,008$111 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.3 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d1f…2ffbbacked Yes | 4c | 2,981$109 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108.68 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf95…fe86backed Yes | 4c | 2,933$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x856b…fd64backed Yes | 7c | 2,915$200 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$200 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa0f2…0287backed Yes | 3c | 2,812$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$92.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8a77…9ef1backed Yes | 5c | 2,786$137 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$137.3 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.6wins | -0.07per pick | 19cpaid | -76.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbac9…1eeebacked Yes | 4c | 2,727$98 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$98.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x66a1…80d9backed Yes | 5c | 2,651$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.5 | 30 | 0%0 W · 30 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x13dd…4990backed Yes | 4c | 2,626$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x848d…efbebacked Yes | 6c | 2,600$156 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$156 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x03cb…5f7bbacked Yes | 4c | 2,550$94 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$94.35 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb8af…0550backed Yes | 6c | 2,545$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$145 | 19 | 0%0 W · 19 L | -1.8wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x3a10…c2d3backed Yes | 3c | 2,517$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8f1f…e389backed Yes | 4c | 2,318$83 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$83.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3d33…c84ebacked Yes | 4c | 2,288$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$84.66 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0165…4082backed Yes | 6c | 2,253$130 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$130.29 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x7c8c…0bd8backed Yes | 4c | 2,162$76 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$75.67 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5a2d…7e4fbacked Yes | 4c | 2,129$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$76.64 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa977…5eebbacked Yes | 4c | 2,129$75 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$74.52 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1c82…800bbacked Yes | 4c | 2,074$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x426d…effdbacked Yes | 3c | 2,034$67 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa594…04a8backed Yes | 4c | 2,020$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9deb…8108backed Yes | 9c | 2,000$176 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$176.47 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8d41…5863backed Yes | 3c | 2,000$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xaea3…4c16backed Yes | 8c | 2,000$162 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$161.96 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 17cpaid | -52.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x391d…def1backed Yes | 5c | 1,972$92 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$91.78 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.3wins | -0.04per pick | 16cpaid | -82%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8bba…d8d5backed Yes | 4c | 1,941$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.94 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x904a…b711backed Yes | 4c | 1,937$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfb08…2e13backed Yes | 4c | 1,894$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$68.15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9c65…942cbacked Yes | 3c | 1,872$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3687…fce2backed Yes | 4c | 1,834$68 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$67.86 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x56c9…e988backed Yes | 4c | 1,827$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee6e…c954backed Yes | 3c | 1,794$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9cbe…8952backed Yes | 4c | 1,793$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc373…42d0backed Yes | 3c | 1,775$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.58 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc46f…4a5fbacked Yes | 3c | 1,709$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0607…d9f3backed Yes | 3c | 1,684$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.57 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd1b2…ba83backed Yes | 3c | 1,680$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74ff…8730backed Yes | 3c | 1,621$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.49 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x494c…8df5backed Yes | 3c | 1,616$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.33 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd2cb…80a2backed Yes | 4c | 1,609$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.53 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xeac9…bf8ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,607$59 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x46a1…2736backed Yes | 4c | 1,587$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.4 | 31 | 16.1%5 W · 26 L | -1.9wins | -0.06per pick | 22cpaid | -61.5%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x173c…7d05backed Yes | 4c | 1,584$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.46 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x153a…93a4backed Yes | 3c | 1,575$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$51.98 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcccd…f8a5backed Yes | 4c | 1,572$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$56.59 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe5f7…6f09backed Yes | 11c | 1,557$174 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$173.53 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.4wins | +0.12per pick | 21cpaid | +18.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3400…2f8bbacked Yes | 3c | 1,545$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7905…e3f0backed Yes | 3c | 1,539$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.79 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x721a…dc46backed Yes | 2c | 1,515$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3998…b1ecbacked Yes | 4c | 1,514$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.5 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xda11…22b0backed Yes | 7c | 1,500$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 23cpaid | -12.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x09d1…dc65backed Yes | 4c | 1,497$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.89 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2c9b…6c6ebacked Yes | 4c | 1,476$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.14 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf788…e5dabacked Yes | 7c | 1,442$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2e86…1f72backed Yes | 4c | 1,417$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55c0…12fcbacked Yes | 4c | 1,399$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.36 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8e91…3335backed Yes | 3c | 1,373$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0ece…3b5fbacked Yes | 4c | 1,366$51 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50.54 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x240b…76cabacked Yes | 3c | 1,364$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.01 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x101d…4e95backed Yes | 4c | 1,348$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.88 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x82fd…ccb7backed Yes | 4c | 1,338$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$48.44 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xebae…a85cbacked Yes | 4c | 1,331$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.92 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked Yes | 4c | 1,309$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.96 | 37 | 27%10 W · 27 L | -3.8wins | -0.10per pick | 37cpaid | -40.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x1af1…fea5backed Yes | 3c | 1,306$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.1 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x891b…f416backed Yes | 4c | 1,287$48 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.62 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb37…4338backed Yes | 4c | 1,267$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.61 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9136…b7a2backed Yes | 3c | 1,225$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc567…f657backed Yes | 4c | 1,216$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.78 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcda3…b9e5backed Yes | 4c | 1,188$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.77 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8694…d250backed Yes | 4c | 1,187$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.73 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe025…f39cbacked Yes | 9c | 1,183$101 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100.82 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -0.5wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5956…c62abacked Yes | 4c | 1,167$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaa43…a6d3backed Yes | 4c | 1,161$42 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfa33…2722backed Yes | 4c | 1,096$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.55 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5587…e602backed Yes | 3c | 1,076$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.51 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x14a4…f1b2backed Yes | 4c | 1,070$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.45 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4638…da06backed Yes | 4c | 1,023$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.83 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.04per pick | 4cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x909b…76babacked Yes | 3c | 1,006$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5d0c…bcebbacked Yes | 7c | 1,000$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x64f1…d931backed Yes | 3c | 999$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.97 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9e53…ebefbacked Yes | 3c | 998$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.93 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xbb3a…4c2dbacked Yes | 3c | 997$33 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.9 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in IPO and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on IPO day?this page
- Will SpaceX not IPO by December 31, 2027?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be at least $3.5T at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?Yes won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on IPO day?No won
- Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.