TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x3d5a…4c29

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
151
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
9

Best Category: Commodities, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Commodities at 56 out of 100; worst Middle East at 47.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jul 2, 2026, EDT2339.1%9 W · 14 L-1.0wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-23%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Stocks — the 23 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close at $380-$390 on the final day of trading of the week of Jun 29 – Jul 3?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+44.9%+$8.44
Will Meta (META) finish week of June 29 above $580?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 2, 2026, EDT+28.7%+$6.13
Will Tesla (TSLA) close at <$380 on the final day of trading of the week of Jun 22 – Jun 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$169Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT+38.1%+$64.43
Will Apple (AAPL) finish week of June 22 above $275?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)23c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.2
Will Apple (AAPL) close at <$275 on the final day of trading of the week of Jun 22 – Jun 26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT+30.7%+$23.5
Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of June 22 above $380?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$62.09
Will Meta (META) finish week of June 22 above $530?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.3
Will Amazon (AMZN) finish week of June 22 above $220?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.2
Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of June 15 above $395?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.31
Will Tesla (TSLA) close above $400 on June 12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.2
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $235 on June 12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.6
Will Google (GOOGL) close above $350 on June 12?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$33.82
Will Amazon (AMZN) close above $250 on June 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$61
Will Amazon (AMZN) finish week of June 1 above $250?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$60Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$60
Will Meta (META) finish week of May 25 above $630?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$21Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT+105.8%+$22.62
Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of May 25 above $440?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.06
Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of May 25 above $445?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)47c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 29, 2026, EDT+115.1%+$16.05
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of May 18 above $215?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT+50.2%+$13.37
Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of May 18 above $134?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.4
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of May 18 above $220?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.57
Will Palantir (PLTR) finish week of May 18 above $138?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT+66.1%+$19.9
Will Tesla (TSLA) finish week of May 18 above $420?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT+392%+$61.31
Will Meta (META) finish week of May 18 above $600?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.2
All 23 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved Jul 1, 2026, EDT2250%11 W · 11 L+2.4wins+0.11per pick39cpaid+15.2%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Commodities — the 22 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Silver (SI) settle at $80-$90 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.89
Will Silver (SI) settle at $50-$60 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$53Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+310.3%+$165.16
Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,200-$4,600 in June?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$85Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+57.8%+$48.99
Will Silver (SI) settle at $60-$70 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$83.63
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at >$84 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$62.21
Will Silver (SI) settle at $70-$80 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$48Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$48.46
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle at $63-$70 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+275.4%+$107.57
Will Gold (GC) settle at $4,600-$5,000 in June?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.51
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $70 on the final trading day of June 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)69c$101Lost — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$100.91
Will Gold (GC) settle over $4,600 on the final trading day of June 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$129Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+78.3%+$100.79
Will Crude Oil (CL) settle over $85 on the final trading day of June 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$153Won — open this pick on its own pageJul 1, 2026, EDT+60.3%+$92.34
Will fewer than 20 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$23Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT+89.2%+$20.28
Will 20-39 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 11-May 17?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 21, 2026, EDT+59.1%+$15.98
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between May 4-May 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+30.2%+$3.94
Will 8–9 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$304Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+96.9%+$295.05
Will 10 or more ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)44c$264Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$264.47
Will 25-49 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$77Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT+52.4%+$40.5
Will 50-74 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$17Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.24
Will fewer than 25 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between April 20-April 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.52
Will 6–7 ships be successfully targeted by Iran by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$17.62
Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be between 8 and 11 on April 12, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$21.07
Will the 7-day moving average of Strait of Hormuz transits be between 4 and 7 on April 12, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)24c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+324.1%+$41.09
All 22 picks, newest first.
Movies Inactivelast resolved May 11, 2026, EDT2240.9%9 W · 13 L-0.2wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-23.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Movies — the 22 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 40m and 45m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$159Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$159.21
Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 45m and 50m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.83
Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 40m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$514Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT+47.1%+$242.04
Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 30m and 35m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.09
Will "The Sheep Detectives" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 15m and 18m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$69Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT+34.9%+$24.25
Will "The Sheep Detectives" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 12m and 15m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.49
Will "The Sheep Detectives" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 18m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.73
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 35m and 38m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)68c$47Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$46.87
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be greater than 38m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)35c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT+182.8%+$44.49
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 80m and 90m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT+26.8%+$5.2
Will "The Devil Wears Prada 2" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 70m and 80m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)49c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.11
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 4th Weekend Box Office be greater than 20.5m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$92Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT+57%+$52.42
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 4th Weekend Box Office be between 19m and 20.5m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$40Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$39.85
Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 95m and 100m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)63c$272Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$272.21
Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 90m and 95m?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)50c$213Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT+101.1%+$214.96
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 31m and 34m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.61
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 34m and 37m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)54c$106Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT+84.8%+$89.7
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 3rd Weekend Box Office be between 37m and 40m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$45Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$44.68
Will "You, Me & Tuscany" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 8m and 9m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)40c$191Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$190.81
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 70m and 80m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)62c$182Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$182.31
Will "You, Me & Tuscany" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 8m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$263Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+79.6%+$209.73
Will "The Super Mario Galaxy Movie" 2nd Weekend Box Office be less than 70m?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$108Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+172.2%+$185.99
All 22 picks, newest first.
Tweets Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT1931.6%6 W · 13 L-1.1wins-0.06per pick37cpaid-42.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
Tweets — the 19 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.67
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from May 14 to May 16, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)60c$29Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 15, 2026, EDT-100%-$29.14
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 1 to May 8, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$97Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT+25.7%+$24.89
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$47Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT+26.4%+$12.31
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from May 2 to May 4, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.94
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.39
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)74c$24Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 2, 2026, EDT+34.4%+$8.11
Will Elon Musk post 1040-1079 tweets in April 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)57c$230Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+76%+$174.94
Will Elon Musk post 1080-1119 tweets in April 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$61Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$60.77
Will Elon Musk post 1000-1039 tweets in April 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.66
Will Elon Musk post 1120-1159 tweets in April 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.11
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.67
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.15
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$38Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT+170.3%+$63.89
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)32c$33Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$32.71
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.66
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+157.1%+$55.94
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$24Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.81
Will Donald Trump post 80-99 Truth Social posts from April 7 to April 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.6
All 19 picks, newest first.
Weather Inactivelast resolved May 11, 2026, EDT1258.3%7 W · 5 L+1.0wins+0.09per pick50cpaid-5.3%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Weather — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will global temperature increase by between 1.15ºC and 1.19ºC in April 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 11, 2026, EDT+40%+$13.71
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 27 - May 3?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)34c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.24
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 27 - May 3?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$30Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT+32.1%+$9.58
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from April 27 - May 3?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 4, 2026, EDT+37.7%+$5.65
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 20 - 26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)52c$13Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.61
Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 20 - 26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT+26%+$5.09
Will there be exactly 0 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 20 - 26?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$19Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT+31.7%+$5.91
Will there be exactly 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from April 13 - April 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)22c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$27.09
Will there be exactly 8 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from April 13 - April 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT-100%-$15.3
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide from April 13 - April 19?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$63Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 20, 2026, EDT+94.5%+$59.48
Will there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide by April 5?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)36c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+174.6%+$30.42
Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 6 - 12?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.46
All 12 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT1250%6 W · 6 L-0.4wins-0.03per pick53cpaid-30.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 12 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will a different combination of candidates advance to the runoff?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$118Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT+33.2%+$39.2
Will Rafael López Aliaga and Keiko Fujimori advance to the runoff?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$27Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$26.69
Will the Bank of Mexico announce a decrease at the May meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$150Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2026, EDT+26.5%+$39.67
Will the Bank of Mexico announce no change at the May meeting?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$31.33
Will South Korea GDP growth in Q1 2026 be at least 2.5%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$32Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT+51.2%+$16.24
Will South Korea GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.4%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 22, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.44
Will Fidesz–KDNP win the most national list votes in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.29
Will Tisza win the national list vote in the 2026 Hungarian Parliamentary election by 9%+?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.57
Will voter turnout be 74–77% in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+48.6%+$6.97
Will voter turnout be 71–74% in the 2026 Hungarian parliamentary election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+50.6%+$7.16
Will Tisza win 130+ seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.45
Will Tisza win 120-129 seats in the Hungarian National Assembly in this election?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$12Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+25%+$3
All 12 picks, newest first.
IPO Inactivelast resolved Jun 12, 2026, EDT1136.4%4 W · 7 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-27.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
IPO — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.0T and $2.5T at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)25c$62Won — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT+298.9%+$186.74
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.5T and $2.0T at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$65Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$64.87
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $2.5T and $3.0T at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$34Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.05
Will SpaceX's market cap be less than $1.0T at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.23
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $1.0T and $1.5T at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$25Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$24.82
Will SpaceX's market cap be between $3.0T and $3.5T at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.57
Will Cerebras' market cap be between $60B and $70B at market close on IPO day?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$58Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$58.47
Will Cerebras' market cap be between $50B and $60B at market close on IPO day?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$70Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 14, 2026, EDT+26.7%+$18.76
Will Madison Air’s market cap be greater than $13.5B at market close on IPO day?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$84.05
Will Madison Air’s market cap be between $13.0B and $13.5B at market close on IPO day?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$95Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT+40%+$37.92
Will Madison Air’s market cap be between $12.5B and $13.0B at market close on IPO day?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$104Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$29.36
All 11 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Jun 21, 2026, EDT119.1%1 W · 10 L-1.0wins-0.09per pick18cpaid-75.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
Middle East — the 11 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Pakistan?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the May decision?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$28Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$28.35
Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the May decision?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$20Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 25, 2026, EDT+172.2%+$34.84
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 10?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 10, 2026, EDT-100%-$45.63
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 9?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$35Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT-100%-$34.55
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 8?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.03
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 7?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.93
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on April 29?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$11.01
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on April 28?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$16Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT-100%-$16.28
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on April 27?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 27, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.68
Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on April 26?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.3
All 11 picks, newest first.
Macro Indicators Inactivelast resolved May 12, 2026, EDT1060%6 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.07per pick67cpaid-6.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Macro Indicators — the 10 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Macro Indicators, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will annual inflation increase by 3.8% in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$164Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$164.11
Will annual inflation increase by 3.7% in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)65c$154Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+54.8%+$84.56
Will annual inflation increase by 3.6% in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$182Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+25.5%+$46.33
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)67c$83Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT+49%+$40.65
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$82Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$81.97
Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 2.0% and 2.5%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$36Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$35.5
Will US GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 1.5% and 2.0%?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$35Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT+28%+$9.9
Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 4.5% and 5.0%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$87Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$87.14
Will China GDP growth in Q1 2026 be between 5.0% and 5.5%?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)42c$73Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT+136.6%+$99.45
Will a dozen eggs cost between $2.50–2.75 in March?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 10, 2026, EDT+37.8%+$5.46
All 10 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved May 16, 2026, EDT3100%3 W · 0 L+0.8wins+0.26per pick74cpaid+35.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Music — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved May 17, 2026, EDT366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.2wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+49.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved May 8, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.25per pick75cpaid-37.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

AI Inactivelast resolved Apr 23, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
AI — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in AI, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will GPT-5.5 be released on April 23, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 23, 2026, EDT-100%-$44.41
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.