Movies · resolved market
Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 95m and 100m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x30e4d6de7d18218d06174d1e266c147f0a84eb1d09f10ea74d06c4770688eba3
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Yesof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $98,577
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $103,085
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $98,577 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 114 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0xecaa…77a9backed Yes | 62c | 28,294$17,449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10,844.63 | 177 | 51.4%91 W · 86 L | +2.6wins | +0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -16.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb028…8686backed Yes | 52c | 5,984$3,134 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,849.84 | 236 | 39.8%94 W · 142 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed Yes | 63c | 5,802$3,650 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$2,152.04 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 68c | 3,213$2,201 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,012.19 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked Yes | 51c | 2,817$1,449 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$1,368.03 | 164 | 53.7%88 W · 76 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 56c | 1,736$972 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$764.05 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 53c | 1,707$907 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$799.44 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5e39…352cbacked Yes | 52c | 1,484$769 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$715.69 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 57c | 1,279$733 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$545.25 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x39aa…583cbacked No | 25c | 1,169$287 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$286.83 | 135 | 34.8%47 W · 88 L | +2.3wins | +0.02per pick | 33cpaid | -8%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 32c | 1,158$368 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$790.06 | 264 | 31.1%82 W · 182 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6018…170cbacked Yes | 49c | 1,081$535 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$546.66 | 136 | 35.3%48 W · 88 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4a05…69ecbacked Yes | 39c | 956.14$373 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$583.24 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Yes | 23c | 840.74$196 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$645.18 | 195 | 32.8%64 W · 131 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked No | 11c | 643$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.73 | 268 | 6.3%17 W · 251 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -53%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe83f…35fbbacked No | 3c | 613.88$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.06 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x056f…e487backed Yes | 35c | 566.41$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$368.72 | 120 | 30%36 W · 84 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcffe…146dbacked Yes | 32c | 562.53$180 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$382.37 | 129 | 36.4%47 W · 82 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x42e6…8e78backed Yes | 49c | 492.61$241 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$251.43 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +7.1wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes | 45c | 489.84$220 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$269.47 | 151 | 49%74 W · 77 L | +10.6wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5a…4c29backed No | 63c | 430.69$272 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$272.21 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 20c | 414.61$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$81.68 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf021…df56backed Yes | 79c | 383.05$304 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$78.78 | 105 | 49.5%52 W · 53 L | +6.5wins | +0.06per pick | 43cpaid | -4.9%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 30c | 382.22$114 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$114.49 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0xe664…bfb3backed Yes | 53c | 368.3$195 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$173.24 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf96e…a9c4backed Yes | 37c | 339$125 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.38 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x523a…8e28backed No | 10c | 291.17$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.89 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes | 27c | 283.09$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$205.62 | 190 | 31.1%59 W · 131 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb70b…6087backed Yes | 41c | 272.86$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$160.45 | 116 | 33.6%39 W · 77 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a43…178bbacked Yes | 39c | 260.39$103 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$157.66 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 59c | 250.81$149 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$102.07 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x936a…7a5abacked Yes | 79c | 250$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$52 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Yes | 45c | 249.99$112 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$137.5 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29d3…b2edbacked No | 23c | 249.21$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.32 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2375…5ee0backed No | 22c | 242.08$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.46 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +72.9%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d35…f929backed Yes | 55c | 240$132 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$108 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.21per pick | 54cpaid | -39.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 49c | 225.08$110 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$110.32 | 130 | 34.6%45 W · 85 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xc7d0…1f8abacked Yes | 78c | 215.96$168 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$48.34 | 44 | 29.5%13 W · 31 L | -1.6wins | -0.04per pick | 33cpaid | -45.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa532…cc03backed No | 68c | 200$135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -43%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3ff…ec82backed No | 19c | 200$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -21.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x9660…8bb6backed No | 57c | 197.98$113 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.73 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 57cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes | 22c | 196.16$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$153 | 163 | 50.3%82 W · 81 L | +24.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed No | 30c | 142.79$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.35 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | +6.5wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xd064…2704backed Yes | 47c | 142.43$67 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$75.52 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x8f34…2f50backed No | 39c | 137.23$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.5 | 83 | 51.8%43 W · 40 L | -2.3wins | -0.03per pick | 55cpaid | -24.5%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f62…90a2backed Yes | 43c | 134.07$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$76.42 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5042…f296backed Yes | 78c | 132$102 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$29.7 | 7 | 57.1%4 W · 3 L | +0.7wins | +0.10per pick | 47cpaid | -14.6%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x64f9…cf15backed No | 63c | 126.72$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.83 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked No | 64c | 114.84$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.5 | 231 | 30.3%70 W · 161 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 36c | 114.67$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$41.13 | 133 | 33.1%44 W · 89 L | -10.3wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x511b…c8f6backed No | 63c | 114.18$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$71.82 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 36c | 112.95$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.96 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -17%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…71aebacked Yes | 77c | 110$85 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$25.3 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1358…d34abacked No | 53c | 104.3$56 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$55.8 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.53per pick | 53cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x15f7…f0c4backed No | 50c | 100$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.5 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x103d…b3b2backed No | 43c | 100$43 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$42.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -67.4%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xc03f…249dbacked No | 21c | 100$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 51 | 29.4%15 W · 36 L | -4.7wins | -0.09per pick | 39cpaid | -24.4%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x9d7f…9941backed No | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x723e…083ebacked No | 64c | 100$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$64 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2a17…8df6backed No | 23c | 100$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 31cpaid | -41%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x59e4…c67bbacked No | 77c | 100$77 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$77 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 57c | 99.75$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.6 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1851…ae47backed Yes | 45c | 97.36$44 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$53.26 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +1.4wins | +0.14per pick | 16cpaid | -14.3%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x939d…f0f0backed Yes | 30c | 93$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$65.1 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25b4…635abacked Yes | 63c | 92.87$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$34.67 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2e09…3250backed No | 23c | 92.3$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.23 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.01per pick | 51cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa86f…022cbacked Yes | 65c | 86.87$57 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$30.14 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | -0.5wins | -0.01per pick | 50cpaid | -11.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed Yes | 58c | 86.27$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.2 | 220 | 30.5%67 W · 153 L | -13.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xceae…2f49backed No | 21c | 85$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.46 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.7wins | -0.15per pick | 35cpaid | -67.7%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc8fb…72cdbacked Yes | 29c | 83.92$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$59.76 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1d0a…50adbacked No | 70c | 81.81$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.27 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 72cpaid | -31.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa951…8a2fbacked No | 42c | 76.64$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32.19 | 27 | 51.9%14 W · 13 L | +1.9wins | +0.07per pick | 45cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xea12…993bbacked No | 56c | 66.94$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.56 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 18c | 64.29$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.85 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa009…ab48backed Yes | 35c | 62.91$22 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.61 | 39 | 48.7%19 W · 20 L | +3.2wins | +0.08per pick | 41cpaid | +19.2%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7368…fd66backed No | 18c | 62.08$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc6d9…1eb8backed Yes | 80c | 61.25$49 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.25 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.20per pick | 80cpaid | +25%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3c2…df3dbacked Yes | 28c | 59.09$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$42.49 | 34 | 61.8%21 W · 13 L | +2.8wins | +0.08per pick | 54cpaid | +1.1%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5753…fa31backed No | 32c | 58.28$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.65 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.7wins | +0.15per pick | 65cpaid | +9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xdfdb…703dbacked Yes | 80c | 57.73$46 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.55 | 32 | 40.6%13 W · 19 L | +2.0wins | +0.06per pick | 34cpaid | -2.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0ba3…57bcbacked No | 39c | 57.68$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.59 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -9.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcbad…c86ebacked Yes | 30c | 57.62$17 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$40.33 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.27per pick | 22cpaid | +66.7%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 60c | 56.82$34 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.65 | 160 | 15.6%25 W · 135 L | -26.1wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x162b…2b8cbacked No | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5979…fc4fbacked No | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.3wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -56.7%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8a…1f78backed No | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x53cd…60f7backed No | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe2ae…82aabacked No | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.21per pick | 21cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xef08…e9adbacked No | 68c | 50$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.19per pick | 53cpaid | -51%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0bfb…26a7backed No | 64c | 50$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$32 | 134 | 40.3%54 W · 80 L | +1.8wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -10.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3697…1829backed No | 21c | 50$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2131…7325backed No | 71c | 50$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35.5 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.20per pick | 45cpaid | -59%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xed9a…3efbbacked Yes | 56c | 50$28 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.09per pick | 41cpaid | -10.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f5…8423backed Yes | 79c | 48.95$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.28 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5dba…d397backed No | 53c | 48.92$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.93 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.2wins | -0.20per pick | 54cpaid | -56.1%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1c8f…4182backed No | 71c | 48.55$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.47 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.26per pick | 43cpaid | -79.1%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…af4bbacked Yes | 76c | 48.15$37 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.56 | 49 | 40.8%20 W · 29 L | -3.5wins | -0.07per pick | 48cpaid | -27%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9a57…fda1backed Yes | 74c | 46.78$35 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.16 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.26per pick | 74cpaid | +35.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9914…b94ebacked No | 56c | 40$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.6wins | -0.56per pick | 56cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfc4d…6e9dbacked Yes | 77c | 37.79$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$8.69 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.12per pick | 55cpaid | +9.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 95m and 100m?this page
- Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 80m and 85m?No won
- Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 85m and 90m?No won
- Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 90m and 95m?No won
- Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 100m?No won
- Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 80m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.