Movies · resolved market
Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 90m and 95m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x7e68f2729fe0c6c794e4ec2a1c906f26eb49a50f9d7106c747aeba362961be22
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $71,359
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $57,224
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $71,359 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 86 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 4c | 15,498$677 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$677.17 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xb028…8686backed Yes | 23c | 4,990$1,135 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$1,135.44 | 236 | 39.8%94 W · 142 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes | 14c | 4,594$639 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$639.34 | 294 | 23.5%69 W · 225 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 24c | 1,845$437 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$437.26 | 473 | 28.3%134 W · 339 L | -32.8wins | -0.07per pick | 35cpaid | -38.8%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed Yes | 34c | 1,693$584 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$583.63 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x5e39…352cbacked Yes | 45c | 1,313$588 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$588.2 | 41 | 51.2%21 W · 20 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 51cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x30a0…a458backed Yes | 14c | 1,002$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.32 | 31 | 9.7%3 W · 28 L | -2.1wins | -0.07per pick | 16cpaid | -78.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x056f…e487backed Yes | 23c | 975.39$220 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$219.99 | 120 | 30%36 W · 84 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 41c | 782$321 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$461.38 | 164 | 53.7%88 W · 76 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcffe…146dbacked Yes | 27c | 699.99$190 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$190 | 129 | 36.4%47 W · 82 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6680…c738backed Yes | 16c | 650.79$106 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.04 | 105 | 44.8%47 W · 58 L | +2.7wins | +0.03per pick | 42cpaid | -12.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 21c | 581.96$120 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.13 | 160 | 15.6%25 W · 135 L | -26.1wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0xc602…7fc1backed No | 45c | 562.49$253 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$309.37 | 220 | 30.5%67 W · 153 L | -13.6wins | -0.06per pick | 37cpaid | -37.3%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xd039…2532backed Yes | 21c | 509.21$107 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$106.93 | 57 | 45.6%26 W · 31 L | +6.5wins | +0.11per pick | 34cpaid | +58.2%equal weight | 59+0.08 edge/pick |
| 0xf933…52fbbacked Yes | 19c | 500$95 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$95 | 122 | 40.2%49 W · 73 L | +5.7wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -3.3%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Yes | 28c | 480.31$136 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$135.81 | 195 | 32.8%64 W · 131 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2251…25a0backed No | 68c | 449.4$307 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$142.42 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.32per pick | 68cpaid | +46.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xd8d5…8935backed Yes | 56c | 446.25$250 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$249.86 | 19 | 36.8%7 W · 12 L | -2.1wins | -0.11per pick | 48cpaid | -29.5%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9660…8bb6backed Yes | 45c | 440.05$197 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$196.91 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 57cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3d5a…4c29backed No | 50c | 427.51$213 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$214.96 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -23.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x936a…7a5abacked Yes | 12c | 399.99$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 80%4 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.17per pick | 63cpaid | +6.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x6018…170cbacked Yes | 33c | 398.31$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.49 | 136 | 35.3%48 W · 88 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd064…2704backed Yes | 56c | 354.36$199 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$198.73 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.11per pick | 36cpaid | -46.8%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xc0a4…cd68backed Yes | 15c | 352.27$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.89 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.14per pick | 36cpaid | -12.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf96e…a9c4backed Yes | 54c | 349.99$189 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$189 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.3wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | +15.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6f92…15d2backed Yes | 56c | 299.99$168 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$168.49 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.22per pick | 42cpaid | -70.2%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xe25b…0f1bbacked Yes | 21c | 250.31$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.55 | 163 | 50.3%82 W · 81 L | +24.6wins | +0.15per pick | 35cpaid | +23.5%equal weight | 65+0.13 edge/pick |
| 0x17fa…abfbbacked No | 80c | 248.15$198 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.66 | 10 | 60%6 W · 4 L | +0.3wins | +0.03per pick | 57cpaid | -0.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8daf…ef60backed Yes | 60c | 244.45$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.27 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.16per pick | 53cpaid | -44%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed Yes | 31c | 215.54$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$66.41 | 133 | 33.1%44 W · 89 L | -10.3wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -41.1%equal weight | 43-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xf971…0a57backed Yes | 28c | 210.43$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$59.96 | 32 | 21.9%7 W · 25 L | -1.8wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -50.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe664…bfb3backed Yes | 38c | 209.99$79 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.29 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes | 33c | 200.49$66 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$65.62 | 190 | 31.1%59 W · 131 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x677c…b856backed Yes | 50c | 200$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.40per pick | 40cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf30f…a161backed Yes | 12c | 200$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.5 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -0.3wins | -0.02per pick | 45cpaid | -27.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb70b…6087backed Yes | 22c | 198.2$44 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$43.53 | 116 | 33.6%39 W · 77 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xfff1…5e20backed Yes | 51c | 168.01$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.36 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.42per pick | 42cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4c61…db2ebacked Yes | 16c | 163.55$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.17 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | +1.8wins | +0.26per pick | 17cpaid | +70.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xf0b0…8cabbacked Yes | 40c | 160.98$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.88 | 672 | 32%215 W · 457 L | +14.4wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -30%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0ec4…f4a4backed No | 63c | 156.37$99 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$57.86 | 33 | 48.5%16 W · 17 L | -0.2wins | -0.01per pick | 49cpaid | -25%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xaf00…0c1abacked Yes | 53c | 155$82 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$82.25 | 10 | 10%1 W · 9 L | -3.8wins | -0.38per pick | 48cpaid | -72.2%equal weight | 38-0.11 edge/pick |
| 0x9d7f…9941backed No | 79c | 150$119 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.17per pick | 42cpaid | -68.5%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x302e…88ccbacked Yes | 23c | 130.79$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.52 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.07per pick | 37cpaid | -51.3%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x939d…f0f0backed Yes | 29c | 128$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.47 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4f62…90a2backed Yes | 30c | 122.66$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.33 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.4wins | -0.10per pick | 35cpaid | -41.9%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x25b4…635abacked Yes | 51c | 111.88$57 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$57.06 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59e4…c67bbacked No | 54c | 107.61$58 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$49.5 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x995b…1bd8backed Yes | 46c | 102.85$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.3 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -37.5%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x15f7…f0c4backed Yes | 39c | 100.77$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.97 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -2.4wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 42-0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x4d8a…1f78backed Yes | 35c | 100$35 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$35 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x58e9…441abacked No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.2wins | +0.23per pick | 77cpaid | +29.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe42e…a252backed Yes | 13c | 100$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.33 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.9wins | -0.18per pick | 38cpaid | -74.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x64f9…cf15backed No | 52c | 97.27$51 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$46.69 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +1.1wins | +0.16per pick | 55cpaid | +20.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x42e6…8e78backed Yes | 35c | 96$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$33.6 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +7.1wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 43c | 94.3$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.55 | 285 | 24.2%69 W · 216 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9868…907ebacked Yes | 20c | 93.81$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.8 | 21 | 28.6%6 W · 15 L | +3.1wins | +0.15per pick | 14cpaid | +79.3%equal weight | 57+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xcaaa…da37backed No | 75c | 83.48$63 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$20.82 | 7 | 71.4%5 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.13per pick | 59cpaid | +11.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x9cb3…1367backed Yes | 51c | 80.35$41 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$40.58 | 36 | 36.1%13 W · 23 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xde09…1231backed Yes | 13c | 80$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.4 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4460…54d1backed Yes | 16c | 79.24$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.7 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.16per pick | 16cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 47c | 76.15$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.1 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x4a43…178bbacked Yes | 34c | 68.6$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.35 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdda2…ffa9backed Yes | 53c | 65$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34.45 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.5wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xdaee…9fdabacked Yes | 17c | 62.36$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.6 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6bca…b60abacked Yes | 28c | 60.09$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.93 | 114 | 21.9%25 W · 89 L | -5.5wins | -0.05per pick | 27cpaid | -40.3%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 31c | 57.21$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.69 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7e80…631bbacked No | 54c | 50$27 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 130 | 34.6%45 W · 85 L | -8.2wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -31.5%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xcfb5…cf85backed Yes | 48c | 50$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.22per pick | 47cpaid | -68.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xf80f…8485backed No | 75c | 50$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.5 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.3wins | +0.11per pick | 56cpaid | -0.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x723e…083ebacked Yes | 43c | 50$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 46cpaid | +26.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9797…c193backed Yes | 56c | 49.35$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.64 | 10 | 20%2 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.08per pick | 28cpaid | -56.3%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf7bb…a9f7backed Yes | 31c | 48.92$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.17 | 82 | 47.6%39 W · 43 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 47cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8444…1cf9backed No | 62c | 47.02$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$17.95 | 41 | 39%16 W · 25 L | -1.7wins | -0.04per pick | 43cpaid | -30.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x7434…e58bbacked Yes | 25c | 46.25$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.56 | 30 | 30%9 W · 21 L | -0.3wins | -0.01per pick | 31cpaid | -45.1%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf4c3…aac3backed Yes | 55c | 44.65$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.43 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.55per pick | 55cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe1f3…08d0backed Yes | 50c | 43.35$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.68 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -1.0wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -51%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe18b…fdf2backed No | 56c | 43$24 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$18.92 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 30cpaid | -55.4%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x46bd…7090backed No | 46c | 41.13$19 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$22.21 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.04per pick | 54cpaid | +8.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x6f67…102cbacked Yes | 32c | 40.46$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.98 | 231 | 30.3%70 W · 161 L | -8.0wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -22.9%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb40e…7cc9backed Yes | 49c | 40.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.58 | 143 | 37.1%53 W · 90 L | -10.4wins | -0.07per pick | 44cpaid | -29.7%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x85c8…80f8backed No | 64c | 38.29$25 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.78 | 11 | 54.5%6 W · 5 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 53cpaid | -17%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x511b…c8f6backed Yes | 56c | 28.57$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15.98 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.3wins | -0.44per pick | 44cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3cd4…ea0ebacked No | 59c | 24.06$14 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.92 | 11 | 27.3%3 W · 8 L | -2.2wins | -0.20per pick | 48cpaid | -55.3%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xea12…993bbacked No | 55c | 20.79$11 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.35 | 14 | 42.9%6 W · 8 L | -1.5wins | -0.11per pick | 54cpaid | -34.5%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xa99f…b306backed No | 70c | 16.67$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -2.4wins | -0.17per pick | 53cpaid | -44.8%equal weight | 43-0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x2e47…bdbfbacked No | 66c | 15.26$10 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$5.19 | 14 | 57.1%8 W · 6 L | -1.1wins | -0.08per pick | 65cpaid | -12%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 90m and 95m?this page
- Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 80m and 85m?No won
- Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 85m and 90m?No won
- Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 95m and 100m?Yes won
- Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 100m?No won
- Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 80m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.