Movies · resolved market
Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 100m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x05a5dac073f533e42fad4103a0a4c31540100bbb71da20a1588ac131f94b29bb
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $108,807
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $88,352
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $108,807 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 65 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 2c | 12,004$188 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.87 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed Yes | 6c | 7,480$416 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$416.28 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb413…1cb7backed Yes | 8c | 3,366$281 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$281.3 | 42 | 11.9%5 W · 37 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 12cpaid | -45.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x523a…8e28backed Yes | 4c | 3,291$117 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$117.25 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbf14…5d95backed Yes | 7c | 2,593$180 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$179.55 | 35 | 5.7%2 W · 33 L | -2.6wins | -0.07per pick | 13cpaid | -66.2%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x29d3…b2edbacked Yes | 4c | 2,459$97 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$96.6 | 12 | 33.3%4 W · 8 L | +0.2wins | +0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -34.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5106…256abacked Yes | 19c | 2,398$454 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$454.15 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xbc51…0e98backed Yes | 17c | 2,108$357 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$357.19 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.17per pick | 17cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb028…8686backed Yes | 17c | 2,041$355 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$355.04 | 236 | 39.8%94 W · 142 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe2b1…7d2abacked Yes | 3c | 2,000$60 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60 | 326 | 39.3%128 W · 198 L | -7.2wins | -0.02per pick | 41cpaid | -15.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1920…a04ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,920$54 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.67 | 126 | 31%39 W · 87 L | +3.5wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | -40.1%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe83f…35fbbacked Yes | 5c | 1,705$91 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$90.65 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.2wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes | 21c | 1,701$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.64 | 294 | 23.5%69 W · 225 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xdb71…10cdbacked Yes | 10c | 1,396$143 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$143.26 | 64 | 4.7%3 W · 61 L | -3.7wins | -0.06per pick | 10cpaid | -74.8%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4113…042ebacked Yes | 3c | 1,317$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.11 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ce2…b83abacked Yes | 5c | 1,241$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.63 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 3c | 1,200$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.47 | 266 | 6.4%17 W · 249 L | -13.4wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -52.7%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x6018…170cbacked Yes | 6c | 1,152$73 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$73.22 | 136 | 35.3%48 W · 88 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 12c | 1,147$141 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$141.27 | 264 | 31.1%82 W · 182 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x179e…ebe8backed Yes | 6c | 1,098$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.73 | 72 | 6.9%5 W · 67 L | -0.9wins | -0.01per pick | 8cpaid | -39.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x765f…1508backed Yes | 8c | 997$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$79.76 | 94 | 34%32 W · 62 L | -0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 34cpaid | -22.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Yes | 22c | 901.71$195 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$195.18 | 195 | 32.8%64 W · 131 L | -3.7wins | -0.02per pick | 35cpaid | -21.4%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0e5d…d896backed Yes | 39c | 895.8$350 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$350.31 | 5 | 60%3 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 59cpaid | -6.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcffe…146dbacked Yes | 5c | 789.52$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.77 | 129 | 36.4%47 W · 82 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 36cpaid | -25.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa834…71aebacked Yes | 15c | 707.35$105 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$105.45 | 21 | 47.6%10 W · 11 L | +0.7wins | +0.04per pick | 44cpaid | -15.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa994…19a6backed Yes | 5c | 639.05$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$28.76 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -1.4wins | -0.35per pick | 35cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x056f…e487backed Yes | 10c | 566.49$55 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$54.62 | 120 | 30%36 W · 84 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 30cpaid | -20%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ace…6069backed Yes | 10c | 532.78$53 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$53.06 | 41 | 48.8%20 W · 21 L | +3.6wins | +0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x8caf…3545backed Yes | 4c | 522.96$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.75 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 3cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x55ed…51d6backed Yes | 12c | 510.87$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.12per pick | 12cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0928…9d34backed Yes | 8c | 502.29$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.13 | 28 | 32.1%9 W · 19 L | +0.6wins | +0.02per pick | 30cpaid | -28.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe904…2d9fbacked Yes | 13c | 472.91$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.15 | 151 | 49%74 W · 77 L | +10.6wins | +0.07per pick | 42cpaid | +1.6%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xa757…f01fbacked Yes | 7c | 454.12$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.52 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.8wins | -0.38per pick | 38cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xad8c…8cc3backed Yes | 7c | 453.3$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30.69 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -1.4wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x4a43…178bbacked Yes | 13c | 415.19$52 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$52.06 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x31c2…f1d3backed Yes | 3c | 400$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.2 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.7wins | -0.22per pick | 22cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xbf51…08e5backed Yes | 9c | 390.37$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.19 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.07per pick | 7cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8ed0…529cbacked Yes | 5c | 338.43$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.05per pick | 5cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4a05…69ecbacked Yes | 7c | 311.17$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.49 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | -35.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xc6b2…3caabacked Yes | 12c | 307.03$36 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$36.4 | 10 | 30%3 W · 7 L | +0.1wins | +0.01per pick | 29cpaid | -56.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x954d…cd39backed Yes | 31c | 296.63$93 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$93.14 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.07per pick | 41cpaid | -46.6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83d7…317fbacked Yes | 10c | 281.69$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29.22 | 75 | 8%6 W · 69 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -86.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 4c | 279.97$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.13 | 160 | 15.6%25 W · 135 L | -26.1wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes | 9c | 254.14$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.87 | 190 | 31.1%59 W · 131 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xa03d…d98cbacked Yes | 10c | 236.19$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.16 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.10per pick | 10cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3140…6229backed Yes | 8c | 228.45$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.19 | 13 | 53.8%7 W · 6 L | +0.9wins | +0.07per pick | 47cpaid | +28.9%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa2f2…66b9backed Yes | 6c | 217.09$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.99 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.06per pick | 6cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc9e0…e99bbacked Yes | 11c | 215.03$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.95 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.11per pick | 11cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x939d…f0f0backed Yes | 11c | 191.82$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.36 | 33 | 30.3%10 W · 23 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 32cpaid | -38.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xac2d…a9c4backed No | 69c | 191.22$133 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$58.7 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.31per pick | 69cpaid | +44.3%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9660…8bb6backed No | 77c | 187.73$144 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$43.58 | 8 | 37.5%3 W · 5 L | -1.6wins | -0.20per pick | 57cpaid | -48.9%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xfcf2…7279backed Yes | 6c | 185.89$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.48 | 138 | 20.3%28 W · 110 L | +0.1wins | 0.00per pick | 20cpaid | +27.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xcdaf…eff6backed Yes | 13c | 178.05$23 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$23.11 | 22 | 40.9%9 W · 13 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 39cpaid | -16%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe664…bfb3backed Yes | 16c | 153.99$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.06 | 28 | 46.4%13 W · 15 L | +0.8wins | +0.03per pick | 43cpaid | -19.5%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x61b2…676dbacked Yes | 9c | 153.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.65 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x5cfd…aeedbacked Yes | 9c | 146.18$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.41 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.09per pick | 9cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4628…7010backed Yes | 8c | 143.86$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.06 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.08per pick | 8cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe0f5…8423backed Yes | 10c | 124.02$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.8 | 7 | 42.9%3 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | +0.01per pick | 42cpaid | -34.3%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x44dd…11f9backed Yes | 15c | 100$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14.55 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x59e4…c67bbacked No | 77c | 100$77 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$23 | 63 | 30.2%19 W · 44 L | -2.1wins | -0.03per pick | 34cpaid | -13.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xfe41…9f23backed No | 61c | 92$56 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$36.34 | 23 | 43.5%10 W · 13 L | -0.5wins | -0.02per pick | 46cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75f3…fe29backed No | 75c | 47.46$36 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$11.87 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 45cpaid | +11.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x895d…3778backed Yes | 30c | 46.49$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.81 | 55 | 23.6%13 W · 42 L | +5.8wins | +0.11per pick | 13cpaid | +138.3%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x1928…e2d9backed No | 70c | 41.57$29 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$12.47 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x75d1…7a5fbacked No | 72c | 17$12 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$4.76 | 164 | 53.7%88 W · 76 L | +9.6wins | +0.06per pick | 48cpaid | +3.6%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 100m?this page
- Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 80m and 85m?No won
- Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 85m and 90m?No won
- Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 90m and 95m?No won
- Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 95m and 100m?Yes won
- Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 80m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.