Movies · resolved market
Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 85m and 90m?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x76c3d8ad596e167444fdce13d40ece47069e1ca9e49926e474f3e397441af687
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Moviesevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $47,142
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $23,818
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $47,142 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
All 27 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Movies is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Movies | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x682d…4cd6backed Yes | 1c | 12,282$64 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$63.57 | 328 | 14.9%49 W · 279 L | +14.2wins | +0.04per pick | 11cpaid | -59.4%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x33f8…c5e4backed Yes | 3c | 2,717$80 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$80.36 | 294 | 23.5%69 W · 225 L | +0.4wins | 0.00per pick | 23cpaid | -43%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4155…35cebacked Yes | 4c | 1,968$71 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$70.81 | 24 | 41.7%10 W · 14 L | +1.9wins | +0.08per pick | 34cpaid | +9.7%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xbe78…c533backed Yes | 6c | 1,337$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.48 | 297 | 35.7%106 W · 191 L | +2.7wins | +0.01per pick | 35cpaid | -22.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x2384…e4d5backed Yes | 8c | 1,315$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$111.52 | 16 | 37.5%6 W · 10 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 38cpaid | -34.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x37fc…7717backed Yes | 2c | 1,150$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.55 | 28 | 25%7 W · 21 L | +0.4wins | +0.01per pick | 24cpaid | -26.6%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa6b8…4bdfbacked Yes | 4c | 1,107$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.96 | 27 | 18.5%5 W · 22 L | +1.2wins | +0.04per pick | 14cpaid | -38.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x7495…7fcfbacked Yes | 2c | 1,095$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.87 | 268 | 6.3%17 W · 251 L | -13.5wins | -0.05per pick | 11cpaid | -53%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x7b67…1b07backed Yes | 3c | 1,033$28 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.92 | 23 | 39.1%9 W · 14 L | +0.4wins | +0.02per pick | 37cpaid | -14.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x4113…042ebacked Yes | 7c | 653.19$45 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$45.35 | 12 | 16.7%2 W · 10 L | -0.1wins | -0.01per pick | 17cpaid | +36.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x74e0…fabdbacked Yes | 3c | 637.97$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.31 | 285 | 24.2%69 W · 216 L | -8.3wins | -0.03per pick | 27cpaid | -41.5%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8247…d8ccbacked Yes | 4c | 600$22 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$22.2 | 160 | 40%64 W · 96 L | +8.2wins | +0.05per pick | 35cpaid | -19.4%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x6018…170cbacked Yes | 13c | 549.6$72 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$72.3 | 136 | 35.3%48 W · 88 L | +4.1wins | +0.03per pick | 32cpaid | -0.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2c3c…c31ebacked Yes | 10c | 499.37$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$49.72 | 190 | 31.1%59 W · 131 L | +5.8wins | +0.03per pick | 28cpaid | +15.5%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xb028…8686backed Yes | 6c | 495.35$32 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.95 | 236 | 39.8%94 W · 142 L | +5.9wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | -26.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x510f…a43cbacked Yes | 5c | 329.66$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.06 | 100 | 42%42 W · 58 L | +0.7wins | +0.01per pick | 41cpaid | -25.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x83d7…317fbacked Yes | 9c | 302.01$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$27.27 | 75 | 8%6 W · 69 L | -4.6wins | -0.06per pick | 14cpaid | -86.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0xb70b…6087backed Yes | 3c | 299.13$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.47 | 116 | 33.6%39 W · 77 L | +0.3wins | 0.00per pick | 33cpaid | -31.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x1cdd…e595backed Yes | 5c | 250.31$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.83 | 160 | 15.6%25 W · 135 L | -26.1wins | -0.16per pick | 32cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 34-0.14 edge/pick |
| 0x4a43…178bbacked Yes | 14c | 179.53$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.79 | 59 | 25.4%15 W · 44 L | -0.2wins | 0.00per pick | 26cpaid | -14%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xe562…4fa9backed Yes | 8c | 163.38$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.63 | 264 | 31.1%82 W · 182 L | -2.2wins | -0.01per pick | 32cpaid | -18.3%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x085c…8ffdbacked Yes | 13c | 139.76$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.17 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.13per pick | 13cpaid | -100%equal weight | 490.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc8fb…72cdbacked Yes | 15c | 129.6$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.08 | 49 | 34.7%17 W · 32 L | +1.8wins | +0.04per pick | 31cpaid | +12.5%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25b4…635abacked Yes | 34c | 110.33$37 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$37.35 | 8 | 25%2 W · 6 L | -0.9wins | -0.12per pick | 37cpaid | -58.8%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x42e6…8e78backed Yes | 29c | 93.15$27 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$26.94 | 78 | 60.3%47 W · 31 L | +7.1wins | +0.09per pick | 51cpaid | +6.8%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed Yes | 17c | 76$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.92 | 870 | 33.3%290 W · 580 L | -77.0wins | -0.09per pick | 42cpaid | -37.8%equal weight | 40-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x2301…7fa8backed No | 80c | 53.66$43 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.73 | 35 | 40%14 W · 21 L | +0.5wins | +0.01per pick | 39cpaid | -16.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Movies and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 6 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 85m and 90m?this page
- Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 80m and 85m?No won
- Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 90m and 95m?No won
- Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 95m and 100m?Yes won
- Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be greater than 100m?No won
- Will "Michael" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 80m?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.