TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0xd064…2704

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
46
Categories scored
17
Categories below 50
8

Best Category: Tweets, grading 56 out of 100 (+0.05 per pick).

Best Category Tweets at 56 out of 100; worst NBA at 46.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT1872.2%13 W · 5 L+2.3wins+0.13per pick59cpaid+8.4%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
Tweets — the 18 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 24 to May 1, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)16c$10Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.07
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT+38.4%+$29.85
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 21 to April 28, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$76Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 28, 2026, EDT+31.5%+$23.95
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from April 23 to April 25, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$74Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT+159.4%+$117.53
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$18.35
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)80c$84Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+25.1%+$21.14
Will Donald Trump post 200+ Truth Social posts from April 14 to April 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)64c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+57.3%+$9.98
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$137Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+31.7%+$43.62
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$75Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$75.13
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)79c$14Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+26.3%+$3.62
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)77c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+29.9%+$13.25
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 18 to April 20, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$14.82
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)71c$44Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+39.9%+$17.46
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from April 16 to April 18, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)46c$37Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT+116.7%+$43.22
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$78Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT+28.8%+$22.33
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)78c$39Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT+28.2%+$11
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$44Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$43.75
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)72c$36Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+38.9%+$14
All 18 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved May 4, 2026, EDT560%3 W · 2 L+0.5wins+0.10per pick50cpaid-18.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Middle East — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Apr 27, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L-0.4wins-0.11per pick36cpaid-46.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Movies — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NBA Inactivelast resolved Apr 27, 2026, EDT333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.9wins-0.30per pick64cpaid-48.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
NBA — the 3 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Premier League Inactivelast resolved May 24, 2026, EDT2100%2 W · 0 L+1.0wins+0.48per pick52cpaid+92%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
Premier League — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Premier League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

NHL Inactivelast resolved Mar 7, 2026, EST250%1 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.16per pick66cpaid-34.6%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
NHL — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NHL, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Hurricanes vs. Oilersbacked Hurricanes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)76c$15Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST+30.7%+$4.61
Canucks vs. Blackhawksbacked Blackhawks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 7, 2026, EST-100%-$10.59
All 2 picks, newest first.
Fifa International Inactivelast resolved Mar 31, 2026, EDT250%1 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.24per pick74cpaid-31.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Fifa International — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Fifa International, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Italy qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$140Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 31, 2026, EDT-100%-$140.22
Will Ukraine qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)73c$169Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 26, 2026, EDT+36.5%+$61.86
All 2 picks, newest first.
Ukraine Inactivelast resolved Apr 25, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.7wins+0.71per pick29cpaid+248.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
Ukraine — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ukraine, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ukraine re-enter Rodynske by April 30?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)29c$16Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT+248.1%+$38.54
All 1 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Mar 6, 2026, EST1100%1 W · 0 L+0.6wins+0.61per pick39cpaid+159.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Longwood Lancers vs. UNC Asheville Bulldogsbacked UNC Asheville Bulldogs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)39c$17Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST+159.3%+$27.65
All 1 picks, newest first.
Golf Inactivelast resolved Apr 12, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.5wins+0.49per pick51cpaid+97.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Golf — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Golf, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Rory McIlroy win the 2026 Masters tournament?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)51c$231Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 12, 2026, EDT+97.4%+$224.88
All 1 picks, newest first.
Crypto Milestones Inactivelast resolved May 1, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.44per pick56cpaid+77.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
Crypto Milestones — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Crypto Milestones, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in April?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$60Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 1, 2026, EDT+77.7%+$46.65
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Midterms Inactivelast resolved May 27, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.4wins+0.39per pick61cpaid+63.4%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
Us Midterms — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Midterms, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$34Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 27, 2026, EDT+63.4%+$21.59
All 1 picks, newest first.
World Politics Inactivelast resolved May 9, 2026, EDT1100%1 W · 0 L+0.3wins+0.30per pick70cpaid+43.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
World Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in World Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)70c$269Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 9, 2026, EDT+43.7%+$117.4
All 1 picks, newest first.
Music Inactivelast resolved Apr 30, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.1wins-0.12per pick12cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Music — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Music, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Bruno Mars have the greatest number of monthly Spotify listeners this month?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)12c$12Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 30, 2026, EDT-100%-$12.23
All 1 picks, newest first.
MLB Inactivelast resolved Mar 6, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.20per pick20cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
MLB — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in MLB, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
First Round Pool D: Venezuela vs. Netherlandsbacked Netherlands · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)20c$15Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 6, 2026, EST-100%-$15
All 1 picks, newest first.
Us Politics Inactivelast resolved Apr 18, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.26per pick26cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Us Politics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Us Politics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
FISA Section 702 reauthorized before it expires?backed No · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)26c$31Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$30.99
All 1 picks, newest first.
Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 12, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.4wins-0.37per pick37cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)37c$109Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 12, 2026, EDT-100%-$108.64
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.