Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xa2eb617c6556a9d767fdfb446c4ce1efe102f6417296d29e24229cc2a65ea373

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Apr 21, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $554,573
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $240,387

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $554,573 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 329 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x09ad…04e4backed Yes	0c	28,601$39 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$39.2	178	5.6%10 W · 168 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	1c	14,384$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139.95	994	10.6%105 W · 889 L	-30.0wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.4%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	17c	14,176$2,456 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,455.86	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x25c2…08c7backed Yes	2c	13,400$202 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$202	86	19.8%17 W · 69 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	18cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	21c	11,553$2,422 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,421.61	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	1c	11,260$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.8	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	2c	9,853$236 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$236.09	1,780	7.4%132 W · 1,648 L	-23.1wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	2c	9,766$179 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$179.18	1,190	8.7%104 W · 1,086 L	+31.1wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-0.6%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf01e…51cbbacked Yes	0c	9,195$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.18	246	17.5%43 W · 203 L	+6.0wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	+112.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	7c	7,499$492 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$492.03	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	6c	7,323$470 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$469.88	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	2c	7,051$161 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$160.51	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5bff…e08fbacked Yes	0c	5,000$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15	167	16.2%27 W · 140 L	-1.5wins	-0.01per pick	17cpaid	-45.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6eb6…19bebacked Yes	16c	4,907$779 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$779	97	14.4%14 W · 83 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes	0c	4,800$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	187	3.2%6 W · 181 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+278.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x95ef…ff92backed Yes	3c	4,097$132 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$132.49	87	5.7%5 W · 82 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-65.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1d87…f9f9backed Yes	6c	4,088$226 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$226.33	99	15.2%15 W · 84 L	+3.5wins	+0.04per pick	12cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x50bd…d20fbacked Yes	14c	4,053$561 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$560.51	99	11.1%11 W · 88 L	-4.0wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-25.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	2c	4,045$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.34	552	5.6%31 W · 521 L	+15.6wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+42.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	1c	3,801$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.84	1,060	8.4%89 W · 971 L	+29.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd96a…d8cebacked Yes	2c	3,549$79 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$78.62	50	6%3 W · 47 L	-1.4wins	-0.03per pick	9cpaid	-39%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x17f1…af18backed Yes	2c	3,333$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.33	26	3.8%1 W · 25 L	+0.9wins	+0.03per pick	1cpaid	+1,823.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	1c	3,218$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.24	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa259…7e5abacked Yes	18c	3,010$530 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$530.4	291	13.1%38 W · 253 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	14c	2,954$399 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$399.17	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe488…f2c0backed Yes	16c	2,939$458 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$457.79	73	19.2%14 W · 59 L	+2.3wins	+0.03per pick	16cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	18c	2,893$517 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$517.05	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	2c	2,850$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.97	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf670…3cb8backed Yes	2c	2,850$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.77	9	0%0 W · 9 L	-0.4wins	-0.04per pick	4cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	8c	2,664$201 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200.64	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	2,655$21 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.53	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2194…318abacked Yes	1c	2,615$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.06	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes	0c	2,565$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.39	229	26.6%61 W · 168 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	27cpaid	-48.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	12c	2,470$304 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$303.73	882	10.3%91 W · 791 L	-4.0wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x557e…d185backed Yes	9c	2,230$201 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$200.7	6	0%0 W · 6 L	-1.0wins	-0.16per pick	16cpaid	-100%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad57…cff9backed Yes	21c	2,210$461 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$460.5	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	+54.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	4c	2,157$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.3	2,545	13.2%335 W · 2,210 L	+4.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb614…2a44backed Yes	23c	2,059$465 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$465.38	113	39.8%45 W · 68 L	+3.9wins	+0.03per pick	36cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	14c	2,041$286 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$285.73	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	11c	2,000$220 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$220	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2dbb…28c0backed Yes	2c	1,996$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.11	26	3.8%1 W · 25 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	6cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x402c…0f6dbacked Yes	15c	1,935$292 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$291.58	280	25.4%71 W · 209 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-46.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a70…76b5backed Yes	19c	1,916$367 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$366.56	42	31%13 W · 29 L	+2.6wins	+0.06per pick	25cpaid	+124%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xea1e…2858backed Yes	15c	1,912$281 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$280.94	117	29.1%34 W · 83 L	-2.8wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x67da…440ebacked Yes	4c	1,842$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.98	211	6.6%14 W · 197 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-23.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xacbc…7cc3backed Yes	11c	1,799$194 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$194.5	115	12.2%14 W · 101 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-57.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x58cd…775abacked Yes	16c	1,775$281 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$280.52	386	14.2%55 W · 331 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-33.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2511…5ae9backed Yes	15c	1,753$264 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$264.39	65	13.8%9 W · 56 L	+1.4wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	+15.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd6d4…6d35backed Yes	16c	1,683$275 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$274.9	18	22.2%4 W · 14 L	-1.1wins	-0.06per pick	28cpaid	-34.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xeab1…8121backed Yes	11c	1,678$185 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$185.23	488	19.3%94 W · 394 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4f4f…5394backed Yes	16c	1,669$261 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$261.23	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-0.7wins	-0.08per pick	30cpaid	-42.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3b7f…d79bbacked Yes	18c	1,520$274 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$273.56	21	19%4 W · 17 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	23cpaid	+16.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x7500…567fbacked Yes	11c	1,391$153 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$152.65	361	13.3%48 W · 313 L	+12.7wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xc1aa…6ba0backed Yes	14c	1,349$183 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$182.71	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	-0.9wins	-0.07per pick	21cpaid	-39.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x26dc…e03abacked Yes	20c	1,337$261 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$261.15	202	22.8%46 W · 156 L	+2.4wins	+0.01per pick	22cpaid	+2.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5aa1…d9b7backed Yes	22c	1,321$285 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$285.39	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-41.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e2f…febcbacked Yes	25c	1,313$325 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$324.7	244	23.8%58 W · 186 L	-7.1wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xad9f…9971backed Yes	8c	1,250$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100	351	12.8%45 W · 306 L	+6.6wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+23.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc507…6054backed Yes	20c	1,246$249 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$249.41	30	33.3%10 W · 20 L	+2.9wins	+0.10per pick	24cpaid	+16.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x7c7e…3b66backed Yes	15c	1,234$191 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$191.07	25	32%8 W · 17 L	+1.4wins	+0.06per pick	26cpaid	+48.9%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xa471…8b84backed Yes	19c	1,211$234 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$233.74	114	24.6%28 W · 86 L	+5.0wins	+0.04per pick	20cpaid	-2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes	8c	1,183$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$98.47	126	14.3%18 W · 108 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x5cdd…dacebacked Yes	10c	1,165$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.49	38	26.3%10 W · 28 L	-1.6wins	-0.04per pick	31cpaid	-23.6%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x12ff…bc36backed Yes	12c	1,161$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$139.92	9	11.1%1 W · 8 L	-1.4wins	-0.16per pick	27cpaid	-67.3%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	13c	1,159$150 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$149.56	1,036	11.1%115 W · 921 L	+4.8wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.3%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xeabe…5910backed Yes	1c	1,138$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.81	119	6.7%8 W · 111 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-76.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6e99…72a0backed Yes	18c	1,037$184 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$183.54	145	7.6%11 W · 134 L	-6.0wins	-0.04per pick	12cpaid	-37.8%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0xaa43…d992backed Yes	6c	1,035$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.12	134	8.2%11 W · 123 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xf262…c56dbacked Yes	8c	1,009$83 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.89	483	10.1%49 W · 434 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	13c	1,007$126 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126.3	1,040	13.7%142 W · 898 L	+38.1wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x53ba…67e9backed Yes	13c	1,000$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130	113	13.3%15 W · 98 L	+1.8wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd769…f90cbacked Yes	19c	1,000$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$190	144	13.9%20 W · 124 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1169…d622backed Yes	20c	990.3$198 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$198.06	87	5.7%5 W · 82 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	7cpaid	+14.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9330…673dbacked Yes	18c	989.99$178 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$178.2	8	12.5%1 W · 7 L	-1.2wins	-0.15per pick	28cpaid	-76.9%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes	3c	979.48$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.14	558	8.2%46 W · 512 L	+12.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd2bc…79d1backed Yes	9c	978.04$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$87.05	70	10%7 W · 63 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-48%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2c19…b2f5backed Yes	22c	928.17$201 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$201.42	124	16.1%20 W · 104 L	-4.1wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-17%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xdd04…2599backed Yes	13c	878.66$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115.66	168	17.3%29 W · 139 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	80c	861.68$689 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$172.34	542	74.9%406 W · 136 L	+34.0wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.1%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x1aed…5925backed Yes	20c	843.75$168 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$168.08	117	21.4%25 W · 92 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	22cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc194…c49cbacked Yes	14c	830.88$114 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$114.38	83	7.2%6 W · 77 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-41.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x11d1…0b41backed Yes	15c	829.16$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$121.54	76	10.5%8 W · 68 L	-4.0wins	-0.05per pick	16cpaid	-44.3%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x1907…8174backed Yes	17c	819.28$136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135.96	51	29.4%15 W · 36 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	29cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x7c06…fbadbacked Yes	6c	807.74$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.46	42	16.7%7 W · 35 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-39.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xf366…425ebacked Yes	10c	800$80 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$80	61	27.9%17 W · 44 L	-1.2wins	-0.02per pick	30cpaid	-1.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x76fa…3ff4backed Yes	14c	799.99$112 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$112	54	18.5%10 W · 44 L	-4.1wins	-0.08per pick	26cpaid	-37.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes	17c	765.07$128 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$128.39	325	29.2%95 W · 230 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbdac…06fabacked Yes	13c	752.48$101 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.91	37	8.1%3 W · 34 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1419…cd8bbacked Yes	6c	746.32$48 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$48.49	50	20%10 W · 40 L	+2.3wins	+0.05per pick	15cpaid	+60.2%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x062d…500fbacked Yes	13c	736.23$95 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94.79	114	8.8%10 W · 104 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	+2.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x41ce…12fdbacked Yes	10c	724.76$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.48	135	17.8%24 W · 111 L	+4.3wins	+0.03per pick	15cpaid	+13.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6868…5198backed Yes	15c	699.97$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108	36	16.7%6 W · 30 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc3cf…51d2backed Yes	15c	694.51$106 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$106.07	320	16.6%53 W · 267 L	-5.1wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes	2c	674.13$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.24	250	12.8%32 W · 218 L	-4.1wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-54.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xfc10…13a0backed Yes	12c	665.47$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.42	30	30%9 W · 21 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	29cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe2b9…7023backed Yes	18c	655.95$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117.3	222	27%60 W · 162 L	+5.2wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2d67…1a08backed Yes	19c	655.68$125 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$124.58	73	28.8%21 W · 52 L	-1.6wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	+119.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x21a5…6760backed Yes	11c	635.49$70 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$69.92	147	8.8%13 W · 134 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xef24…a44dbacked Yes	22c	634.06$137 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137.03	171	26.9%46 W · 125 L	+3.9wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes	7c	616.79$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.19	326	13.8%45 W · 281 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-60.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event