Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x2a43878e2ffba31a6feb78a333b4fd26e667c758d935200df9d470b8c7e97d62

Rebuilt 17 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Apr 21, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $692,828
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $430,820

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $692,828 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 430 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0xbac4…1ab2backed Yes	20c	21,457$4,268 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$4,267.51	457	15.1%69 W · 388 L	-12.5wins	-0.03per pick	18cpaid	-17.9%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x09ad…04e4backed Yes	0c	18,004$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.01	178	5.6%10 W · 168 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x832d…6ec5backed Yes	0c	15,395$73 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$72.76	117	7.7%9 W · 108 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-66.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	3c	15,283$408 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$408.02	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	0c	14,737$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.81	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	4c	12,383$440 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$439.54	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	3c	9,958$298 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$298.18	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7413…4b09backed Yes	0c	8,601$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.4	798	11.3%90 W · 708 L	+30.0wins	+0.04per pick	8cpaid	+33.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	7c	8,254$615 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$614.56	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7091…af26backed Yes	27c	8,056$2,146 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$2,146.05	138	17.4%24 W · 114 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-46.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x17f1…af18backed Yes	2c	6,666$133 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$133.32	26	3.8%1 W · 25 L	+0.9wins	+0.03per pick	1cpaid	+1,823.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7579…94c6backed No	79c	6,103$4,792 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$1,311.05	16	75%12 W · 4 L	+1.8wins	+0.11per pick	64cpaid	+11.6%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	12c	6,045$731 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$731.36	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1d87…f9f9backed Yes	9c	5,514$497 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$496.85	99	15.2%15 W · 84 L	+3.5wins	+0.04per pick	12cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x9034…4375backed Yes	29c	5,441$1,579 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,579.34	254	13.4%34 W · 220 L	-0.6wins	0.00per pick	14cpaid	-5.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xcded…b1ecbacked Yes	0c	5,290$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.58	28	0%0 W · 28 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xedc8…a743backed Yes	7c	5,202$370 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$369.89	248	15.3%38 W · 210 L	+3.5wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-35.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	1c	5,076$52 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$51.91	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb06a…52f5backed Yes	1c	4,858$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.55	229	26.6%61 W · 168 L	-0.7wins	0.00per pick	27cpaid	-48.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xc4c3…2e3fbacked Yes	0c	4,745$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.64	21	9.5%2 W · 19 L	-1.0wins	-0.05per pick	14cpaid	-81.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes	0c	4,725$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.5	187	3.2%6 W · 181 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+278.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	8c	4,263$357 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$356.64	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xb4e9…f380backed No	79c	4,222$3,341 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$880.59	176	31.8%56 W · 120 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	32cpaid	-15.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xfafe…2e34backed Yes	21c	4,107$876 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$875.79	41	29.3%12 W · 29 L	-2.2wins	-0.05per pick	35cpaid	-22.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa01…f1dfbacked Yes	21c	3,869$813 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$812.57	246	6.1%15 W · 231 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x92d7…2232backed Yes	1c	3,734$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.55	16	18.8%3 W · 13 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-67.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x402c…0f6dbacked Yes	15c	3,355$511 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$511.12	280	25.4%71 W · 209 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-46.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a23…fd22backed Yes	21c	3,243$687 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$687.36	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	-1.2wins	-0.07per pick	19cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x8a65…ecdfbacked Yes	2c	3,235$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.09	71	22.5%16 W · 55 L	+4.0wins	+0.06per pick	17cpaid	+14.5%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xed41…38afbacked Yes	1c	3,182$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.45	128	25.8%33 W · 95 L	+7.1wins	+0.06per pick	20cpaid	+50.3%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0x97ff…d095backed No	76c	3,134$2,372 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$761.96	546	75.1%410 W · 136 L	+34.8wins	+0.06per pick	69cpaid	+3.2%equal weight	57+0.06 edge/pick
0x9c29…8c43backed Yes	17c	3,099$517 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$517.02	465	21.3%99 W · 366 L	-11.5wins	-0.02per pick	24cpaid	-24%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	6c	3,078$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170.21	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	18c	2,937$538 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$538.36	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	6c	2,881$158 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$158.46	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6eb6…19bebacked Yes	23c	2,839$655 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$654.79	97	14.4%14 W · 83 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	5c	2,803$141 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140.64	1,001	10.5%105 W · 896 L	-30.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x7500…567fbacked Yes	10c	2,686$259 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$258.58	361	13.3%48 W · 313 L	+12.7wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	4c	2,569$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.36	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	16c	2,465$395 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$394.88	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x04a2…e16cbacked Yes	8c	2,349$179 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$179.37	638	21.5%137 W · 501 L	+1.7wins	0.00per pick	21cpaid	-25.8%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x18a0…dea8backed Yes	8c	2,300$181 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$181.03	576	21.2%122 W · 454 L	+9.9wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	-27.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x9696…0861backed Yes	7c	2,236$151 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$151.46	880	18.6%164 W · 716 L	+10.1wins	+0.01per pick	17cpaid	-24.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc4b2…9a9bbacked No	72c	2,061$1,486 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$575.47	73	71.2%52 W · 21 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	73cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x3e64…4ddabacked Yes	1c	2,000$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10	388	11.9%46 W · 342 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+51.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	15c	2,000$300 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1169…d622backed Yes	4c	1,955$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$84.97	87	5.7%5 W · 82 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	7cpaid	+14.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaee7…37febacked Yes	6c	1,900$116 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$116.13	316	21.8%69 W · 247 L	-2.8wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-34.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3a70…76b5backed Yes	17c	1,871$325 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$325.44	42	31%13 W · 29 L	+2.6wins	+0.06per pick	25cpaid	+124%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x3b7f…d79bbacked Yes	20c	1,840$368 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$368	21	19%4 W · 17 L	-0.7wins	-0.04per pick	23cpaid	+16.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12ed…c9b4backed Yes	22c	1,831$403 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$402.98	535	22.6%121 W · 414 L	-19.4wins	-0.04per pick	26cpaid	-36.9%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7354…430fbacked No	74c	1,769$1,317 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$451.99	188	77.1%145 W · 43 L	+12.3wins	+0.07per pick	71cpaid	+7.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0x47e4…28b8backed Yes	8c	1,722$142 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$142.01	83	16.9%14 W · 69 L	+3.8wins	+0.05per pick	12cpaid	+79.6%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf2dd…1db4backed Yes	21c	1,676$355 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$355.2	160	9.4%15 W · 145 L	-5.9wins	-0.04per pick	13cpaid	-34.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x878a…a429backed Yes	2c	1,589$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.37	317	22.4%71 W · 246 L	-4.7wins	-0.01per pick	24cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xeab1…8121backed Yes	11c	1,570$168 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$167.8	488	19.3%94 W · 394 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e3babacked Yes	24c	1,514$370 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$370.14	325	29.2%95 W · 230 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	30cpaid	-10.4%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x95ef…ff92backed Yes	8c	1,507$117 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$117.08	87	5.7%5 W · 82 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-65.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x765a…efb4backed Yes	2c	1,500$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25	387	6.5%25 W · 362 L	+6.8wins	+0.02per pick	5cpaid	-6.5%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5aa1…d9b7backed Yes	24c	1,490$360 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$360.44	8	25%2 W · 6 L	-0.2wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-41.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x67da…440ebacked Yes	7c	1,486$97 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$96.72	211	6.6%14 W · 197 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-23.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa471…8b84backed Yes	22c	1,485$333 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$332.64	114	24.6%28 W · 86 L	+5.0wins	+0.04per pick	20cpaid	-2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe7c0…d656backed Yes	8c	1,472$122 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$122.44	880	17.3%152 W · 728 L	+2.4wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-32.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x828e…c21bbacked Yes	2c	1,446$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.92	274	17.5%48 W · 226 L	+11.0wins	+0.04per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x58cd…775abacked Yes	21c	1,439$297 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$296.7	386	14.2%55 W · 331 L	-3.3wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-33.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc507…6054backed Yes	20c	1,409$281 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$280.84	30	33.3%10 W · 20 L	+2.9wins	+0.10per pick	24cpaid	+16.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x3bc7…867bbacked Yes	9c	1,403$124 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$123.98	61	13.1%8 W · 53 L	+2.3wins	+0.04per pick	9cpaid	-36.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x0bff…5ab4backed Yes	11c	1,400$154 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$154	80	2.5%2 W · 78 L	-2.1wins	-0.03per pick	5cpaid	-80.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2bc7…e411backed No	79c	1,385$1,094 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$290.91	63	81%51 W · 12 L	+3.5wins	+0.06per pick	75cpaid	+7.2%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xc99e…3853backed Yes	14c	1,313$184 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$183.82	197	22.8%45 W · 152 L	-1.3wins	-0.01per pick	23cpaid	-21.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc30e…4bf0backed Yes	21c	1,313$282 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$281.65	57	15.8%9 W · 48 L	-1.0wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-43.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x306d…7a38backed Yes	2c	1,282$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.33	580	11.4%66 W · 514 L	+19.7wins	+0.03per pick	8cpaid	+21.4%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xbced…7f66backed Yes	6c	1,278$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.7	197	26.9%53 W · 144 L	+4.7wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	+7.7%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xe178…0c26backed Yes	4c	1,277$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$55.83	32	6.3%2 W · 30 L	-2.4wins	-0.08per pick	14cpaid	+21.2%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe190…e93dbacked Yes	2c	1,272$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.94	38	15.8%6 W · 32 L	+0.2wins	+0.01per pick	15cpaid	-29%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7e2f…febcbacked Yes	22c	1,257$277 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$276.6	244	23.8%58 W · 186 L	-7.1wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	11c	1,252$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140.38	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x36e7…0b6bbacked No	75c	1,215$909 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$306.02	248	73%181 W · 67 L	+15.9wins	+0.06per pick	67cpaid	+6.1%equal weight	56+0.06 edge/pick
0xef24…a44dbacked Yes	14c	1,211$174 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$174.5	171	26.9%46 W · 125 L	+3.9wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1aed…5925backed Yes	22c	1,203$261 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$260.86	117	21.4%25 W · 92 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	22cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xe2b9…7023backed Yes	19c	1,193$232 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$231.82	222	27%60 W · 162 L	+5.2wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	-6.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7871…2917backed Yes	22c	1,170$260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$260.01	108	29.6%32 W · 76 L	-4.3wins	-0.04per pick	34cpaid	-27.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x030a…aad9backed Yes	1c	1,153$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.54	66	19.7%13 W · 53 L	+2.1wins	+0.03per pick	16cpaid	-5.9%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x8c45…4503backed Yes	21c	1,152$242 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$241.92	14	35.7%5 W · 9 L	+1.8wins	+0.13per pick	23cpaid	+61.9%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xac32…6e3bbacked Yes	8c	1,141$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.8	49	20.4%10 W · 39 L	+3.4wins	+0.07per pick	14cpaid	+5.2%equal weight	55+0.05 edge/pick
0xf92d…a225backed Yes	8c	1,100$91 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.98	233	8.2%19 W · 214 L	+5.1wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+15.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd614…d4febacked Yes	21c	1,100$232 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$231.99	59	30.5%18 W · 41 L	+0.8wins	+0.01per pick	29cpaid	-14.9%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x43d7…c453backed Yes	24c	1,096$263 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$263.16	461	37.5%173 W · 288 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	37cpaid	-11.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa259…7e5abacked Yes	22c	1,085$239 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$238.6	291	13.1%38 W · 253 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7500…12bdbacked Yes	18c	1,035$184 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$183.55	24	20.8%5 W · 19 L	+0.4wins	+0.02per pick	19cpaid	-14.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	18c	1,004$178 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$178.34	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd187…c76cbacked Yes	23c	1,002$230 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$229.86	32	28.1%9 W · 23 L	+1.6wins	+0.05per pick	23cpaid	+11.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd769…f90cbacked Yes	19c	1,000$190 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$190	144	13.9%20 W · 124 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1b3c…1a17backed Yes	3c	1,000$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30	27	3.7%1 W · 26 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	6cpaid	-90.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf4ad…d00bbacked Yes	4c	999.97$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	41	9.8%4 W · 37 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-32%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0xfd03…60fbbacked Yes	26c	999.97$260 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$259.99	30	23.3%7 W · 23 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	22cpaid	-17%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xea1e…2858backed Yes	27c	999.97$270 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$269.99	117	29.1%34 W · 83 L	-2.8wins	-0.02per pick	31cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x12c0…5c8bbacked No	71c	994.09$702 in	Won — open this pick on its own page	+$292.06	2	50%1 W · 1 L	-0.4wins	-0.20per pick	70cpaid	-29.2%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x77c8…bc8cbacked Yes	2c	988.09$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$21.74	634	14.8%94 W · 540 L	-1.8wins	0.00per pick	15cpaid	-42.9%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2246…3ce3backed Yes	25c	986.46$251 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$251.21	121	18.2%22 W · 99 L	-6.3wins	-0.05per pick	23cpaid	-41.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event