Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x3f9f4f2fa0ca005060d8c9aebc5dc7d3f5d19d04dde77cb79665efc9090b0fd7

Rebuilt 20 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Apr 21, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $349,885
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $121,256

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $349,885 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 68 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x09ad…04e4backed Yes	0c	35,000$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	178	5.6%10 W · 168 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	3c	24,811$718 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$718.33	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2179…bedbbacked Yes	0c	10,369$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.37	78	0%0 W · 78 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xdf97…62babacked Yes	0c	8,720$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.48	1	0%0 W · 1 L	0.0wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7766…b7f6backed Yes	2c	7,234$165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$165.49	321	10%32 W · 289 L	+4.9wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	+17.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	1c	6,000$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x832d…6ec5backed Yes	1c	5,557$29 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$29.12	117	7.7%9 W · 108 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-66.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf5e8…9fbdbacked Yes	0c	5,310$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.01	187	3.2%6 W · 181 L	-0.2wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+278.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	0c	4,975$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.08	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0xeabe…5910backed Yes	1c	4,461$31 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.32	119	6.7%8 W · 111 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-76.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	3c	3,997$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.23	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa01…f1dfbacked Yes	2c	3,850$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.98	246	6.1%15 W · 231 L	-2.0wins	-0.01per pick	7cpaid	-53.6%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a23…fd22backed Yes	7c	3,526$252 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$251.52	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	-1.2wins	-0.07per pick	19cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xacbc…7cc3backed Yes	3c	2,890$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.54	115	12.2%14 W · 101 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-57.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x238f…3015backed Yes	3c	2,672$72 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$71.62	182	4.4%8 W · 174 L	+2.9wins	+0.02per pick	3cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x70be…044dbacked Yes	2c	2,500$60 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$60	79	12.7%10 W · 69 L	-0.8wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	-26.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	2c	2,474$47 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$47.4	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	3c	2,092$56 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$56.41	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	2c	2,000$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	3c	1,999$51 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.75	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2be6…e054backed Yes	4c	1,965$82 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$82.21	118	9.3%11 W · 107 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-45.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x50bd…d20fbacked Yes	3c	1,926$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$57.6	99	11.1%11 W · 88 L	-4.0wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-25.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	3c	1,922$49 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$49.26	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	2c	1,774$33 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$33.39	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x67da…440ebacked Yes	2c	1,712$30 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$30.04	211	6.6%14 W · 197 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-23.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc194…c49cbacked Yes	3c	1,678$54 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$53.57	83	7.2%6 W · 77 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-41.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	2c	1,675$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.02	553	5.6%31 W · 522 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+41.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x7500…567fbacked Yes	2c	1,512$25 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.82	361	13.3%48 W · 313 L	+12.7wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	1c	1,476$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.44	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xca8f…d963backed Yes	3c	1,424$40 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$40.36	1,053	5.6%59 W · 994 L	+20.7wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+5.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1aed…5925backed Yes	3c	1,402$42 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$42.06	117	21.4%25 W · 92 L	-1.2wins	-0.01per pick	22cpaid	-5.3%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1169…d622backed Yes	1c	1,350$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.16	87	5.7%5 W · 82 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	7cpaid	+14.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9255…6e3bbacked Yes	5c	1,246$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63	509	13.8%70 W · 439 L	+5.6wins	+0.01per pick	13cpaid	-9.8%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	1c	1,136$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.82	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x453a…fdb8backed Yes	4c	1,118$46 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$45.97	398	6.8%27 W · 371 L	+9.8wins	+0.02per pick	4cpaid	+30.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x9ffa…c8fcbacked Yes	2c	1,036$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.78	559	8.2%46 W · 513 L	+12.5wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	-1.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	2c	1,033$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.53	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa14a…df2abacked Yes	1c	1,000$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12	562	8.9%50 W · 512 L	+6.3wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+18.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x67ef…990abacked Yes	2c	980.5$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.05	732	15.2%111 W · 621 L	+11.7wins	+0.02per pick	14cpaid	+7.4%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce5a…0a70backed Yes	2c	974.94$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.56	37	18.9%7 W · 30 L	+2.7wins	+0.07per pick	12cpaid	+152.2%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe906…ae2bbacked Yes	1c	959.99$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.56	81	9.9%8 W · 73 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	-16%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9901…5815backed Yes	2c	906.48$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20	45	31.1%14 W · 31 L	+1.1wins	+0.03per pick	29cpaid	+16.2%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf92d…a225backed Yes	4c	899.8$32 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$31.61	233	8.2%19 W · 214 L	+5.1wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+15.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x5e0f…c18cbacked Yes	2c	850.65$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.46	101	5%5 W · 96 L	-3.0wins	-0.03per pick	8cpaid	-67.6%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbdac…06fabacked Yes	3c	834.31$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$25.62	37	8.1%3 W · 34 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	3c	832.33$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$23.45	1,001	10.5%105 W · 896 L	-30.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xd2bc…79d1backed Yes	2c	826.04$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.85	70	10%7 W · 63 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-48%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes	3c	825.92$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.03	126	14.3%18 W · 108 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xfa52…780dbacked Yes	3c	809.54$23 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.57	19	5.3%1 W · 18 L	-1.9wins	-0.10per pick	15cpaid	-86.8%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	2c	722.57$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$15.97	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xac3e…e416backed Yes	4c	707.63$27 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$27.12	21	23.8%5 W · 16 L	-1.3wins	-0.06per pick	30cpaid	-69.2%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xaa43…d992backed Yes	2c	610.07$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.98	134	8.2%11 W · 123 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xeab1…8121backed Yes	2c	580.42$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.5	488	19.3%94 W · 394 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes	2c	549.37$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.86	326	13.8%45 W · 281 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-60.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x2778…8547backed Yes	3c	510$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$17.34	133	15.8%21 W · 112 L	+1.8wins	+0.01per pick	14cpaid	-7.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee67…67a6backed Yes	3c	505$16 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.36	328	1.2%4 W · 324 L	+1.0wins	0.00per pick	1cpaid	-10.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x29e7…fbbfbacked Yes	3c	497.13$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.18	34	17.6%6 W · 28 L	+2.1wins	+0.06per pick	11cpaid	+30.1%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x402c…0f6dbacked Yes	2c	446.97$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.05	280	25.4%71 W · 209 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-46.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x09ec…d3f7backed Yes	3c	363.54$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.35	62	11.3%7 W · 55 L	-1.3wins	-0.02per pick	13cpaid	-35.5%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xc4c3…2e3fbacked Yes	3c	360.32$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.9	21	9.5%2 W · 19 L	-1.0wins	-0.05per pick	14cpaid	-81.8%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf97c…5cbabacked Yes	3c	359.37$13 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.56	93	15.1%14 W · 79 L	+3.4wins	+0.04per pick	11cpaid	+69.3%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x51a5…a647backed Yes	3c	346.71$10 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$10.41	20	20%4 W · 16 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-40.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x70f1…d1bfbacked Yes	3c	340.55$11 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.24	5	0%0 W · 5 L	-0.1wins	-0.02per pick	2cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6d00…b0c2backed Yes	4c	303.72$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$11.54	4	0%0 W · 4 L	-0.2wins	-0.06per pick	6cpaid	-100%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd04…2599backed Yes	4c	300$12 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$12.06	168	17.3%29 W · 139 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x9484…a173backed Yes	6c	300$17 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$16.8	400	16.8%67 W · 333 L	-0.5wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1e07…36a9backed Yes	5c	296.5$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.57	95	11.6%11 W · 84 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	11cpaid	-43.6%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x9e81…5d73backed Yes	5c	270.2$14 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$13.88	2	0%0 W · 2 L	-0.1wins	-0.03per pick	3cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event