Tweets · resolved market

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026?

https://tailmypicks.com/m/0xab36a39b0e597fc0b03dbc8af5c788b03841c4747508509418a767c60726c979

Rebuilt 9 hours ago.

Winning outcome: Noof Yes, No
Resolved: Apr 21, 2026, EDTUS/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in: Tweetsevery record on this page is that Category’s

Volume Polymarket published: $664,404
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed: $294,604

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $664,404 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 223 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Tweets is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this market					This wallet’s whole record in Tweets
Wallet	Entry	Position	Result	P/L held	Qualified picks	Win rate	vs expected	Realizable edge	Avg entry	ROI per pick	Tail Score
0x54c0…a338backed Yes	0c	48,009$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.91	364	4.7%17 W · 347 L	+3.3wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	+98.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x09ad…04e4backed Yes	0c	27,797$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109	178	5.6%10 W · 168 L	+0.7wins	0.00per pick	5cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2179…bedbbacked Yes	0c	24,032$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.03	78	0%0 W · 78 L	-0.1wins	0.00per pick	0cpaid	-100%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x17f1…0528backed Yes	5c	22,212$1,087 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,087.27	514	10.5%54 W · 460 L	+17.3wins	+0.03per pick	7cpaid	+22.1%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x25c2…08c7backed Yes	2c	13,400$202 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$202	86	19.8%17 W · 69 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	18cpaid	-14.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x4449…e977backed Yes	4c	11,322$427 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$426.95	590	9.2%54 W · 536 L	+1.6wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	-3.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x146d…17c7backed Yes	1c	9,978$103 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$102.63	1,196	8.7%104 W · 1,092 L	+31.0wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-1.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6df5…6430backed Yes	1c	9,907$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.44	455	11.6%53 W · 402 L	+8.5wins	+0.02per pick	10cpaid	+104.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xca6e…46f2backed Yes	13c	9,872$1,275 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$1,275.12	481	6.7%32 W · 449 L	+2.8wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	-2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x849c…4009backed Yes	2c	8,177$199 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$198.6	1,782	7.4%132 W · 1,650 L	-23.2wins	-0.01per pick	9cpaid	-66.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x95ef…ff92backed Yes	1c	6,857$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$68.45	87	5.7%5 W · 82 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	6cpaid	-65.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x2dbb…28c0backed Yes	1c	6,653$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90.14	26	3.8%1 W · 25 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	6cpaid	-35.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf8cc…028abacked Yes	0c	5,758$26 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$26.48	1,625	1.9%31 W · 1,594 L	+14.5wins	+0.01per pick	1cpaid	+17.7%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x6640…e07abacked Yes	8c	3,970$312 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$312.4	781	11.3%88 W · 693 L	-5.0wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-44.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xeabe…5910backed Yes	0c	3,719$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.53	119	6.7%8 W · 111 L	-1.7wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-76.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6be9…3493backed Yes	0c	3,619$15 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$14.95	1,067	8.3%89 W · 978 L	+28.9wins	+0.03per pick	6cpaid	-28.7%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6a23…fd22backed Yes	12c	3,500$420 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$420	17	11.8%2 W · 15 L	-1.2wins	-0.07per pick	19cpaid	-63.5%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0x74ff…be5bbacked Yes	1c	3,481$37 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$36.78	1,001	10.5%105 W · 896 L	-30.9wins	-0.03per pick	14cpaid	-58.7%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe1f0…25d2backed Yes	3c	3,375$104 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$103.86	384	4.7%18 W · 366 L	+4.0wins	+0.01per pick	4cpaid	-18.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe488…f2c0backed Yes	14c	3,225$457 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$457.19	73	19.2%14 W · 59 L	+2.3wins	+0.03per pick	16cpaid	-0.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x587d…e8cdbacked Yes	13c	3,105$402 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$401.79	41	19.5%8 W · 33 L	-0.2wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-21.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xef0d…8733backed Yes	12c	3,040$378 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$378.24	571	8.2%47 W · 524 L	+1.2wins	0.00per pick	8cpaid	-8.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xa259…7e5abacked Yes	9c	3,000$270 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$270	291	13.1%38 W · 253 L	-0.9wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-32.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x6df7…afb0backed Yes	13c	2,959$398 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$398.43	459	11.3%52 W · 407 L	-6.1wins	-0.01per pick	13cpaid	-13.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x832d…6ec5backed Yes	14c	2,777$398 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$398.01	117	7.7%9 W · 108 L	-0.7wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-66.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6a1b…fbbdbacked Yes	1c	2,744$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.92	553	5.6%31 W · 522 L	+15.5wins	+0.03per pick	3cpaid	+41.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x50bd…d20fbacked Yes	13c	2,727$366 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$366.11	99	11.1%11 W · 88 L	-4.0wins	-0.04per pick	15cpaid	-25.1%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x071d…07efbacked Yes	11c	2,678$301 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$300.83	1,038	11.1%115 W · 923 L	+4.7wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-36.4%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x1d87…f9f9backed Yes	11c	2,670$289 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$288.82	99	15.2%15 W · 84 L	+3.5wins	+0.04per pick	12cpaid	-18.8%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8565…0c43backed Yes	11c	2,512$276 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$276.33	706	16.4%116 W · 590 L	-13.6wins	-0.02per pick	18cpaid	-29%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xad57…cff9backed Yes	16c	2,356$366 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$366.22	18	16.7%3 W · 15 L	-0.4wins	-0.02per pick	19cpaid	+54.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xa49b…7054backed Yes	2c	2,217$44 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.35	2,552	13.1%335 W · 2,217 L	+4.3wins	0.00per pick	13cpaid	-30.6%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7db5…cf18backed Yes	8c	2,042$156 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$156.45	886	10.3%91 W · 795 L	-4.2wins	0.00per pick	11cpaid	-49.2%equal weight	490.00 edge/pick
0x67da…440ebacked Yes	4c	2,014$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.19	211	6.6%14 W · 197 L	-2.5wins	-0.01per pick	8cpaid	-23.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x4ac7…ae55backed Yes	7c	2,000$140 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$140	480	6.9%33 W · 447 L	+5.2wins	+0.01per pick	6cpaid	+21.5%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe8cf…819ebacked Yes	2c	1,947$34 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$34.16	326	13.8%45 W · 281 L	-2.4wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-60.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc1aa…6ba0backed Yes	10c	1,770$182 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$182.06	14	14.3%2 W · 12 L	-0.9wins	-0.07per pick	21cpaid	-39.9%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0x1169…d622backed Yes	14c	1,730$235 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$234.79	87	5.7%5 W · 82 L	-1.4wins	-0.02per pick	7cpaid	+14.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7500…567fbacked Yes	6c	1,711$108 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$107.91	361	13.3%48 W · 313 L	+12.7wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	+9.8%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x402c…0f6dbacked Yes	12c	1,695$211 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$211.07	280	25.4%71 W · 209 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	26cpaid	-46.9%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf993…cd9dbacked Yes	15c	1,691$251 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$251.03	48	50%24 W · 24 L	+2.4wins	+0.05per pick	45cpaid	+3.3%equal weight	54+0.03 edge/pick
0x7c06…fbadbacked Yes	3c	1,678$50 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$50.34	42	16.7%7 W · 35 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	16cpaid	-39.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x890b…2737backed Yes	14c	1,676$235 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$234.66	47	12.8%6 W · 41 L	-0.5wins	-0.01per pick	14cpaid	+4.5%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd6d4…6d35backed Yes	14c	1,610$229 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$228.55	18	22.2%4 W · 14 L	-1.1wins	-0.06per pick	28cpaid	-34.1%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xa65c…32fbbacked Yes	7c	1,570$110 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$109.9	123	8.9%11 W · 112 L	+1.2wins	+0.01per pick	8cpaid	+54%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe008…f7d3backed Yes	9c	1,541$138 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$138.14	256	17.2%44 W · 212 L	+6.1wins	+0.02per pick	15cpaid	-22.8%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xad9f…9971backed Yes	7c	1,519$109 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$108.98	352	12.8%45 W · 307 L	+6.5wins	+0.02per pick	11cpaid	+22.9%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x24da…02c6backed Yes	3c	1,517$53 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$52.55	74	29.7%22 W · 52 L	+4.2wins	+0.06per pick	24cpaid	-3.1%equal weight	55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa845…563ebacked Yes	10c	1,511$152 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$152.03	54	33.3%18 W · 36 L	-1.1wins	-0.02per pick	35cpaid	-20.1%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xb845…a589backed Yes	12c	1,460$182 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$182.5	23	8.7%2 W · 21 L	-1.2wins	-0.05per pick	14cpaid	-57.4%equal weight	47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbdac…06fabacked Yes	13c	1,305$165 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$164.86	37	8.1%3 W · 34 L	+0.3wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-5.7%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x7e2f…febcbacked Yes	15c	1,247$183 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$182.93	244	23.8%58 W · 186 L	-7.1wins	-0.03per pick	27cpaid	-27.8%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe130…4006backed Yes	9c	1,179$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$100.32	1,045	13.6%142 W · 903 L	+37.8wins	+0.04per pick	10cpaid	-14.5%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xf92d…a225backed Yes	6c	1,171$68 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$67.64	233	8.2%19 W · 214 L	+5.1wins	+0.02per pick	6cpaid	+15.1%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x74e0…af4bbacked Yes	7c	1,116$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.19	103	35.9%37 W · 66 L	+1.1wins	+0.01per pick	35cpaid	+108%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa3c6…0ea8backed Yes	14c	1,100$154 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$154	62	24.2%15 W · 47 L	-1.5wins	-0.02per pick	27cpaid	-40.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6868…5198backed Yes	9c	1,100$94 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$94	36	16.7%6 W · 30 L	-0.4wins	-0.01per pick	18cpaid	-11.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xdd04…2599backed Yes	7c	1,093$76 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$76.5	168	17.3%29 W · 139 L	-2.3wins	-0.01per pick	19cpaid	-8.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaed4…09afbacked Yes	2c	1,088$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$19.47	25	8%2 W · 23 L	+1.2wins	+0.05per pick	3cpaid	+19.3%equal weight	53+0.02 edge/pick
0x4c8e…b38fbacked Yes	2c	1,073$19 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$18.54	250	12.8%32 W · 218 L	-4.1wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-54.8%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbfc6…ce6bbacked Yes	2c	1,069$20 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$20.17	342	3.5%12 W · 330 L	+1.4wins	0.00per pick	3cpaid	+15%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x4f4f…5394backed Yes	14c	1,037$149 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$148.89	9	22.2%2 W · 7 L	-0.7wins	-0.08per pick	30cpaid	-42.6%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0xf2dd…1db4backed Yes	6c	1,026$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$61.54	160	9.4%15 W · 145 L	-5.9wins	-0.04per pick	13cpaid	-34.2%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7766…b7f6backed Yes	9c	1,000$90 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$90	321	10%32 W · 289 L	+4.9wins	+0.02per pick	8cpaid	+17.1%equal weight	52+0.01 edge/pick
0x3a70…76b5backed Yes	13c	999.99$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$130	42	31%13 W · 29 L	+2.6wins	+0.06per pick	25cpaid	+124%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0xd769…f90cbacked Yes	17c	999.98$170 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$170	144	13.9%20 W · 124 L	-2.2wins	-0.02per pick	15cpaid	-28.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x53ba…67e9backed Yes	10c	999.98$105 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$105	113	13.3%15 W · 98 L	+1.8wins	+0.02per pick	12cpaid	+8.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8007…a8f4backed Yes	13c	999.14$130 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$129.89	156	49.4%77 W · 79 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	51cpaid	+3.4%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0x0603…8f62backed Yes	9c	947.34$85 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$85.26	21	33.3%7 W · 14 L	-1.5wins	-0.07per pick	41cpaid	-44.3%equal weight	46-0.03 edge/pick
0xc194…c49cbacked Yes	12c	939.89$113 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$113.37	83	7.2%6 W · 77 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	9cpaid	-41.4%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6eb6…19bebacked Yes	12c	899.17$111 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$110.88	97	14.4%14 W · 83 L	-1.7wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-21.2%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xeab1…8121backed Yes	7c	891.6$66 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$65.66	488	19.3%94 W · 394 L	+0.5wins	0.00per pick	19cpaid	-23.5%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xaa43…d992backed Yes	3c	887.28$28 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$28.17	134	8.2%11 W · 123 L	+1.6wins	+0.01per pick	7cpaid	-6.2%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x3bc7…867bbacked Yes	3c	864.67$24 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$24.38	61	13.1%8 W · 53 L	+2.3wins	+0.04per pick	9cpaid	-36.1%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8e34…a300backed Yes	7c	857.97$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.3	26	7.7%2 W · 24 L	-0.5wins	-0.02per pick	10cpaid	-30%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7e9e…7883backed Yes	7c	850.9$58 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$58.18	70	10%7 W · 63 L	+0.7wins	+0.01per pick	9cpaid	+34.3%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xee83…ea10backed Yes	17c	831.49$138 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$137.54	3	33.3%1 W · 2 L	+0.3wins	+0.09per pick	25cpaid	+19%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0xa0d1…4b1cbacked Yes	15c	817.81$127 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$126.67	72	15.3%11 W · 61 L	-3.6wins	-0.05per pick	20cpaid	-29.5%equal weight	46-0.04 edge/pick
0x7146…7255backed Yes	17c	804.57$136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$135.53	264	11.4%30 W · 234 L	-2.1wins	-0.01per pick	12cpaid	-38.8%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0xc507…6054backed Yes	17c	800$136 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$136	30	33.3%10 W · 20 L	+2.9wins	+0.10per pick	24cpaid	+16.7%equal weight	56+0.05 edge/pick
0x76fa…3ff4backed Yes	11c	800$88 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$88	54	18.5%10 W · 44 L	-4.1wins	-0.08per pick	26cpaid	-37.2%equal weight	44-0.05 edge/pick
0xc296…0f22backed Yes	14c	798.05$115 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$115.27	44	9.1%4 W · 40 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	9cpaid	+26%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xbb9f…557bbacked Yes	10c	760.83$77 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.13	126	14.3%18 W · 108 L	-0.9wins	-0.01per pick	15cpaid	-42.7%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7187…4859backed Yes	10c	750.02$78 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$77.96	233	14.2%33 W · 200 L	-4.7wins	-0.02per pick	16cpaid	-12.3%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x51a5…a647backed Yes	10c	747.35$74 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$74.06	20	20%4 W · 16 L	-0.6wins	-0.03per pick	23cpaid	-40.3%equal weight	48-0.01 edge/pick
0xd2bc…79d1backed Yes	6c	722.27$43 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$43	70	10%7 W · 63 L	+0.1wins	0.00per pick	10cpaid	-48%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0x814f…aeecbacked Yes	5c	673.65$36 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$35.5	58	19%11 W · 47 L	+2.2wins	+0.04per pick	15cpaid	-13.4%equal weight	53+0.03 edge/pick
0x1907…8174backed Yes	13c	666$87 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$86.58	51	29.4%15 W · 36 L	+0.4wins	+0.01per pick	29cpaid	-8.9%equal weight	510.00 edge/pick
0x21a5…6760backed Yes	10c	652$62 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$62.12	147	8.8%13 W · 134 L	-2.9wins	-0.02per pick	11cpaid	-37.7%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x670d…ff9bbacked Yes	10c	647.27$64 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.62	57	17.5%10 W · 47 L	+0.2wins	0.00per pick	17cpaid	+38.3%equal weight	500.00 edge/pick
0xef24…a44dbacked Yes	12c	625.19$75 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$75.02	171	26.9%46 W · 125 L	+3.9wins	+0.02per pick	25cpaid	+0.3%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0xf262…c56dbacked Yes	7c	621.3$45 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$44.67	483	10.1%49 W · 434 L	-2.6wins	-0.01per pick	11cpaid	-31.2%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x019f…1152backed Yes	16c	599.06$96 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$95.85	41	31.7%13 W · 28 L	+0.6wins	+0.01per pick	30cpaid	-15.1%equal weight	51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2c19…b2f5backed Yes	17c	586.34$100 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$99.68	124	16.1%20 W · 104 L	-4.1wins	-0.03per pick	19cpaid	-17%equal weight	47-0.03 edge/pick
0xacbc…7cc3backed Yes	4c	581.24$22 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$22.38	115	12.2%14 W · 101 L	-2.5wins	-0.02per pick	14cpaid	-57.1%equal weight	48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2246…3ce3backed Yes	17c	575.2$98 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$97.78	121	18.2%22 W · 99 L	-6.3wins	-0.05per pick	23cpaid	-41.9%equal weight	45-0.04 edge/pick
0xdce6…6069backed Yes	14c	563.9$81 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$81.43	69	18.8%13 W · 56 L	+1.6wins	+0.02per pick	17cpaid	-26.6%equal weight	52+0.02 edge/pick
0x50c3…a567backed Yes	12c	511.36$63 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$63.37	54	18.5%10 W · 44 L	-0.6wins	-0.01per pick	20cpaid	-35.1%equal weight	49-0.01 edge/pick
0x33dc…5051backed Yes	12c	508.42$59 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$59.27	33	36.4%12 W · 21 L	+2.2wins	+0.07per pick	30cpaid	+11%equal weight	54+0.04 edge/pick
0x11ab…5c6cbacked Yes	11c	496.91$55 in	Lost — open this pick on its own page	-$54.66	25	48%12 W · 13 L	+3.4wins	+0.14per pick	34cpaid	+26.2%equal weight	58+0.07 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Tweets and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 30 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

The market traded at least $500.
The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.

Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026?

What this market resolved to

Who was on this market

The rest of this event