TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

Wallet 0x25c2…08c7

Rebuilt .

Summary

Qualified picks
131
Categories scored
13
Categories below 50
10

Best Category: Tweets, grading 51 out of 100 (+0.01 per pick).

Best Category Tweets at 51 out of 100; worst Ncaa Basketball at 45.

What is a Tail Score?

A mark out of 100, per Category. 50 means no edge at all — this wallet did about what the prices it paid implied it would. Above 50 it beat those prices; below 50 it did worse than them.

The scale does not move. 100 is a wallet beating the prices it paid by 0.45 per pick and 0 is losing to them by the same, on every wallet, on every page, in every month. So a grade you screenshot today still means what it meant when you took it, and two wallets can be put side by side.

Nobody reaches either end. Across every wallet TailMyPicks has scored, the marks run from roughly 5 to 87 — which is what a fixed ruler costs, and what buys the sentence above.

It is not a win rate. A wallet can win four Picks in five and still grade below 50, if the market was already pricing those outcomes at 90c — it paid for the wins rather than finding them. The vs expected and Avg entry columns below are what separate the two.

The mark is deliberately pulled toward 50 when there is little evidence. Three lucky Picks do not produce a high grade; several hundred consistent ones do. So a modest grade on thousands of Picks means something a high grade on twelve does not.

Because it is shrunk this way, a Category grade is a conservative reading. The headline figure for a wallet is its best Category, so it always understates how badly the wallet does in its worst one — which is why the table below is per Category and not one blended number.

Record by Category

Ordered by how much this wallet actually traded in each Category, not by score — so the Categories it plays most appear first whether they went well or badly. Open any row to see the picks its numbers were computed from — all of them.

CategoryQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
Tweets Inactivelast resolved Jun 1, 2026, EDT8619.8%17 W · 69 L+1.2wins+0.01per pick18cpaid-14.2%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Tweets — the 86 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Tweets, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Elon Musk post 1600-1679 tweets in May 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 1, 2026, EDT-100%-$10.95
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)13c$39Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT-100%-$38.7
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from April 28 to May 5, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)55c$33Won — open this pick on its own pageMay 5, 2026, EDT+82.7%+$27.15
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)4c$124Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$123.69
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$98Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$97.99
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$208Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT+236.7%+$492.1
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)38c$232Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$231.8
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$52
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$19Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 24, 2026, EDT-100%-$19.5
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$68Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$67.6
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)66c$108Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT+51.5%+$55.83
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$202Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$202
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$202Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$202
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$88Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 21, 2026, EDT-100%-$88
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)10c$100Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$100
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from April 10 to April 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 17, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.29
Will Donald Trump post 100-119 Truth Social posts from April 10 to April 17, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$86Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$86
Will White House post 160-179 posts from April 7 to April 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$13.71
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$84Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$83.95
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$40Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT+1,074.1%+$428.38
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from April 7 to April 14, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)30c$93Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$92.96
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 11 to April 13, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)33c$27Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+201.2%+$54.82
Will Elon Musk post 320-339 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$63Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$63.15
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)14c$78Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$78.37
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 31 to April 7, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)17c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$23.38
Showing 25 of 86 picks, newest first.
NBA Inactivelast resolved May 18, 2026, EDT2020%4 W · 16 L-0.8wins-0.04per pick24cpaid-47.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
NBA — the 20 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in NBA, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)7c$14Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 18, 2026, EDT-100%-$14
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$110Lost — open this pick on its own pageMay 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$110
Spurs vs. Trail Blazersbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)43c$99Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 26, 2026, EDT+132.6%+$131.1
Nuggets vs. Spursbacked Nuggets · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)61c$13Won — open this pick on its own pageApr 13, 2026, EDT+64.5%+$8.54
Cavaliers vs. Grizzliesbacked Grizzlies · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$80Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 7, 2026, EDT-100%-$80.38
Pistons vs. Magicbacked Pistons · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)9c$53Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 6, 2026, EDT-100%-$52.78
Spurs vs. Nuggetsbacked Spurs · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)75c$67Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 4, 2026, EDT-100%-$67.12
Bucks vs. Rocketsbacked Bucks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)5c$23Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 2, 2026, EDT-100%-$23
Pelicans vs. Knicks: O/U 231.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)18c$18Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$18
Pelicans vs. Knicks: O/U 228.5backed Under · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)6c$46Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$45.8
Pacers vs. Magicbacked Pacers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$46Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 24, 2026, EDT+376.2%+$173.8
Warriors vs. Knicks: O/U 216.5backed Over · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$56Won — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT+78.6%+$44
Spread: Knicks (-13.5)backed Knicks · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)56c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$56
Warriors vs. Knicksbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)28c$370Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 16, 2026, EDT-100%-$369.91
Timberwolves vs. Warriorsbacked Warriors · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)11c$259Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$259
Jazz vs. Trail Blazersbacked Jazz · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)8c$56Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$56
P.J. Washington: Rebounds O/U 6.5backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$20Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$20.4
Daniel Gafford: Points O/U 9.5backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)2c$30Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 14, 2026, EDT-100%-$30
Thunder vs. Pistonsbacked Thunder · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$21Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 26, 2026, EST-100%-$21
Timberwolves vs. Trail Blazersbacked Trail Blazers · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)21c$62Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST-100%-$62
All 20 picks, newest first.
Ncaa Basketball Inactivelast resolved Apr 7, 2026, EDT60%0 W · 6 L-1.5wins-0.25per pick25cpaid-100%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
Ncaa Basketball — the 6 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Ncaa Basketball, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Weather Inactivelast resolved Mar 4, 2026, EST540%2 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.03per pick37cpaid+0.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Weather — the 5 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Weather, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Commodities Inactivelast resolved May 12, 2026, EDT425%1 W · 3 L+0.3wins+0.07per pick18cpaid-21.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
Commodities — the 4 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Commodities, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

Movies Inactivelast resolved Mar 31, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.1wins-0.06per pick6cpaid-100%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
Movies — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Movies, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

CS2 Inactivelast resolved Apr 2, 2026, EDT20%0 W · 2 L-0.2wins-0.10per pick10cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
CS2 — the 2 picks behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in CS2, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

IPO Inactivelast resolved Apr 25, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins0.00per pick0cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
IPO — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in IPO, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will X-Energy’s market cap be between $7B and $8B at market close on IPO day?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)0c$22Lost — open this pick on its own pageApr 25, 2026, EDT-100%-$22.04
All 1 picks, newest first.
Stocks Inactivelast resolved Jun 3, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
Stocks — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Stocks, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)1c$52Lost — open this pick on its own pageJun 3, 2026, EDT-100%-$52.12
All 1 picks, newest first.
F1 Inactivelast resolved Mar 8, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.03per pick3cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
F1 — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in F1, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Lewis Hamilton win the 2026 F1 Australian Grand Prix?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)3c$85Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 8, 2026, EDT-100%-$85.25
All 1 picks, newest first.
Middle East Inactivelast resolved Mar 11, 2026, EDT10%0 W · 1 L-0.2wins-0.15per pick15cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Middle East — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Middle East, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Houthi strike on Israel by March 6, 2026?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)15c$112Lost — open this pick on its own pageMar 11, 2026, EDT-100%-$111.6
All 1 picks, newest first.
Champions League Inactivelast resolved Feb 25, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.3wins-0.27per pick27cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
Champions League — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Champions League, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Real Madrid CF vs. Sport Lisboa e Benfica end in a draw?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)27c$11Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 25, 2026, EST-100%-$10.8
All 1 picks, newest first.
Olympics Inactivelast resolved Feb 22, 2026, EST10%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.53per pick53cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
Olympics — the 1 pick behind this row

Every qualified pick this wallet made in Olympics, newest first — these are the picks the row above was computed from, not a sample of them. P/L held is what each pick would have been worth held to resolution, not cash this wallet withdrew. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in. A market name opens TailMyPicks’s own post-mortem of that market — who else was on it, and what they paid — and a result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody.

MarketEntrySizeResultResolvedReturnP/L held
Will Canada win the Men's Ice Hockey gold medal at the 2026 Winter Olympics?backed Yes · on Polymarket (opens in a new tab)53c$69Lost — open this pick on its own pageFeb 22, 2026, EST-100%-$69
All 1 picks, newest first.

vs expected is how many more (or fewer) Picks this wallet won than the prices it paid implied it would. It is the column that tells a real edge apart from a record bought by backing favourites. Realizable edge is what that comes to per Pick for somebody copying the wallet, after the cost of getting in behind it. Avg entry is the average price it paid, so a strong record built on heavy favourites shows as one. ROI per pick counts every Pick equally rather than by size, which is how a record earned across many Picks is told apart from one carried by a few large ones. Days are shown in US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in — an American night game settles after midnight UTC, so any other zone would name the day after the one it was played on. Inactive means nothing has resolved in that Category recently. The score is kept and the wallet stays reachable here; it only leaves the default leaderboard.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.