TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Pistons vs. Magic

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Magicof Pistons, Magic
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$5,023,173
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$5,454,598

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $5,023,173 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 1,815 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0x5ae1…9fadbacked Pistons52c303,400$156,723 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156,723.24957.1%28 W · 21 L+6.4wins+0.13per pick44cpaid+41%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0x8a6c…0b3fbacked Magic47c246,505$116,194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$130,310.8636549.6%181 W · 184 L-1.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-3%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x37c1…c53abacked Magic44c199,924$87,904 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$112,019.751,91549.3%944 W · 971 L+19.7wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+0.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Magic51c190,618$96,689 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93,928.472,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xbddf…c684backed Pistons56c134,444$74,785 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$74,784.6372648.3%351 W · 375 L+30.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xe934…640bbacked Magic49c127,827$62,635 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$65,191.883860.5%23 W · 15 L+4.1wins+0.11per pick50cpaid+24.2%equal weight57+0.07 edge/pick
0x1961…c461backed Magic58c117,803$68,601 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$49,201.298750.6%44 W · 43 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid+11.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Magic44c106,935$47,581 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$59,354.244,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xa5ea…d96abacked Pistons53c100,000$53,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53,00016841.1%69 W · 99 L-4.7wins-0.03per pick44cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xe790…eadcbacked Magic52c94,115$49,324 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$44,791.420744%91 W · 116 L-2.7wins-0.01per pick45cpaid-25.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x85f0…3f67backed Pistons61c90,315$55,092 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55,092.144546.7%21 W · 24 L+1.0wins+0.02per pick44cpaid+9.2%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xcd21…a494backed Pistons12c88,538$10,612 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,612.35246.2%24 W · 28 L-1.1wins-0.02per pick48cpaid+10%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xdb6f…e0ddbacked Pistons47c82,467$38,925 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$38,924.886744.8%30 W · 37 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-2.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2a2c…9bc1backed Pistons13c69,597$8,845 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,844.8966248.5%321 W · 341 L-0.6wins0.00per pick49cpaid-8.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8454…331abacked Magic41c65,865$27,005 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$38,860.511428.6%4 W · 10 L-1.4wins-0.10per pick38cpaid-40.5%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x68ca…9f73backed Magic45c64,907$29,066 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$35,841.3432540.3%131 W · 194 L-10.2wins-0.03per pick43cpaid-12.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xfe78…0319backed Magic67c63,027$42,150 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$20,876.431,28243.4%557 W · 725 L-51.2wins-0.04per pick47cpaid-12.6%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xccc1…889dbacked Pistons61c56,610$34,532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$34,532.041030%3 W · 7 L-0.8wins-0.08per pick38cpaid-43.8%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xb3cf…0ebdbacked Pistons3c55,064$1,661 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,660.861,27138.3%487 W · 784 L-13.4wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3eeb…c387backed Pistons60c54,099$32,360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$32,359.6620454.9%112 W · 92 L+3.0wins+0.01per pick53cpaid-0.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Magic62c50,559$31,187 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,372.352,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xee00…cea1backed Pistons50c49,502$24,751 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,750.870147.8%335 W · 366 L+15.4wins+0.02per pick46cpaid-8.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x2c86…d939backed Pistons58c41,658$24,161 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$24,161.355655.4%31 W · 25 L+4.4wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+9.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0xd218…b5c9backed Pistons6c39,858$2,503 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,503.161,34129.9%401 W · 940 L-53.8wins-0.04per pick34cpaid-35.7%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x5d9b…a5ebbacked Pistons16c39,483$6,308 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,308.3813544.4%60 W · 75 L+0.8wins+0.01per pick44cpaid-2%equal weight510.00 edge/pick
0x84db…aeebbacked Pistons56c39,173$22,077 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$22,076.941,37450.1%689 W · 685 L+34.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+7.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xbf65…9194backed Pistons50c34,483$17,241 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,241.29742.9%3 W · 4 L+0.1wins+0.02per pick41cpaid+28.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x073a…91e7backed Magic41c33,000$13,530 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$19,469.993641.7%15 W · 21 L-2.5wins-0.07per pick49cpaid-17.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5aa9…febebacked Pistons6c31,075$1,943 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,942.791,09640.9%448 W · 648 L+34.3wins+0.03per pick38cpaid-17%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x3349…c0b8backed Pistons57c30,458$17,375 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$17,374.797048.6%34 W · 36 L-3.4wins-0.05per pick53cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x433f…a0dcbacked Pistons1c28,409$208 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.9116919.5%33 W · 136 L-1.0wins-0.01per pick20cpaid-27.4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xaa64…bf96backed Pistons54c27,395$14,793 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$14,793.43757.1%4 W · 3 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick56cpaid+3.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xec8d…dd71backed Magic41c26,577$10,907 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$15,669.2510256.9%58 W · 44 L+9.1wins+0.09per pick48cpaid+19.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x339a…1eaebacked Magic42c25,532$10,723 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$14,808.471,75961.7%1,085 W · 674 L+127.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x0dcf…c556backed Magic48c25,450$12,107 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,3434847.9%23 W · 25 L-0.2wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x507e…beaebacked Magic69c24,781$17,021 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,7605,05350.9%2,570 W · 2,483 L+110.9wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+2.2%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Magic43c24,151$10,412 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$13,738.729,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1df2…89a0backed Pistons4c23,001$991 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$991.0436023.1%83 W · 277 L-15.6wins-0.04per pick27cpaid-49.9%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Pistons23c22,291$5,093 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,093.273,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Pistons10c21,422$2,222 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,221.922,16940.8%885 W · 1,284 L-8.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3354…5042backed Pistons42c20,738$8,789 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,788.7516959.8%101 W · 68 L+2.2wins+0.01per pick58cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Magic42c20,310$8,616 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$11,693.593,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0xacb2…b989backed Pistons53c20,000$10,515 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,514.7649244.3%218 W · 274 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x2b15…9b08backed Pistons56c18,990$10,634 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$10,633.6510239.2%40 W · 62 L-3.8wins-0.04per pick43cpaid-16.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9438…ad81backed Pistons6c18,597$1,023 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,023.083179.5%30 W · 287 L-4.0wins-0.01per pick11cpaid-59.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x3625…1187backed Pistons61c16,010$9,766 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$9,7667243.1%31 W · 41 L-3.7wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-14.5%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x489d…f6e3backed Pistons33c15,848$5,261 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,260.6642645.5%194 W · 232 L-3.9wins-0.01per pick46cpaid-4.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x6233…6349backed Magic62c15,761$9,772 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,989.293467.6%23 W · 11 L-0.3wins-0.01per pick69cpaid-2%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x77d3…f4d6backed Magic41c15,451$6,272 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9,178.9929250%146 W · 146 L+9.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid-1.4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8980…d4f4backed Pistons53c15,000$7,950 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,949.9921951.1%112 W · 107 L+7.4wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+9.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x8781…bc3cbacked Pistons2c14,990$300 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$299.81145.5%5 W · 6 L+1.8wins+0.16per pick29cpaid-2%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0xdc9f…905bbacked Pistons59c14,628$8,582 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,581.7862539.4%246 W · 379 L-18.0wins-0.03per pick42cpaid-6.3%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x299f…2140backed Pistons51c14,624$7,458 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,458.281,14148%548 W · 593 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x498c…42bfbacked Magic43c14,535$6,252 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,283.2515349%75 W · 78 L-0.1wins0.00per pick49cpaid-2.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1d13…643cbacked Pistons41c14,265$5,792 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,791.9114338.5%55 W · 88 L-18.4wins-0.13per pick51cpaid-28.2%equal weight38-0.11 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Pistons58c14,131$8,216 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,215.7287750.2%440 W · 437 L-19.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xcae4…e479backed Pistons35c13,739$4,809 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,808.573151.6%16 W · 15 L+0.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+15.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x1f78…bbe8backed Pistons58c13,608$7,893 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,892.64425%1 W · 3 L-1.0wins-0.25per pick50cpaid-45.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xe4d3…c2f0backed Magic53c13,532$7,237 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,295.755160.8%31 W · 20 L+0.6wins+0.01per pick60cpaid+7.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x648d…1366backed Pistons54c13,479$7,279 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,278.563336.4%12 W · 21 L-1.3wins-0.04per pick40cpaid-23.3%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xa996…8aacbacked Magic51c13,422$6,815 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,607.3914243%61 W · 81 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x47f8…6699backed Magic47c13,421$6,308 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,112.923354.5%18 W · 15 L+1.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid-2.1%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x0d9f…ff8ebacked Pistons37c13,324$4,970 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,969.64450%2 W · 2 L+0.4wins+0.09per pick41cpaid-19.3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x92b5…fec6backed Pistons55c13,275$7,301 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$7,301.3910747.7%51 W · 56 L+0.5wins0.00per pick47cpaid-0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcf6c…7e66backed Magic38c13,197$5,015 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$8,182.4359646.1%275 W · 321 L-16.2wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-10.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x9aa8…1f7bbacked Magic41c13,000$5,330 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$7,6702166.7%14 W · 7 L+1.7wins+0.08per pick59cpaid+9.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x7edb…7993backed Pistons24c12,797$3,114 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,113.5924937.3%93 W · 156 L-3.2wins-0.01per pick39cpaid-35%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x95de…c9b2backed Magic58c12,734$7,354 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,379.952437.5%9 W · 15 L-2.0wins-0.08per pick46cpaid-16.8%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x7234…1d85backed Magic46c12,466$5,763 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,702.5315844.9%71 W · 87 L-8.5wins-0.05per pick50cpaid-11.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x410d…d831backed Magic63c12,342$7,775 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,566.5411335.4%40 W · 73 L-8.0wins-0.07per pick42cpaid-29.1%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xd1ed…d7cbbacked Pistons3c12,255$360 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$360.181,22637.4%458 W · 768 L+7.6wins+0.01per pick37cpaid-21.8%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xd696…8a49backed Magic48c12,046$5,782 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,263.931,21248.3%586 W · 626 L-20.4wins-0.02per pick50cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6bb3…758ebacked Pistons58c11,368$6,613 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,612.9295651.5%492 W · 464 L+23.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+4.3%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xc49f…9e05backed Pistons53c11,000$5,830 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,83058449.7%290 W · 294 L+10.4wins+0.02per pick48cpaid+3.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xeef4…5ed3backed Pistons60c11,000$6,600 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,6001361.5%8 W · 5 L+1.6wins+0.12per pick50cpaid+40.3%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x3d6a…1c08backed Pistons9c11,000$1,022 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,021.991942.1%8 W · 11 L-3.5wins-0.18per pick60cpaid-33.6%equal weight41-0.08 edge/pick
0xdbe4…9bcfbacked Magic41c10,999$4,509 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$6,489.15250%1 W · 1 L+0.1wins+0.04per pick46cpaid+22%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xcacf…35ffbacked Pistons1c10,845$89 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$89.497211%7 W · 714 L-2.6wins0.00per pick1cpaid-32.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0faa…824cbacked Pistons1c10,782$78 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$77.710%0 W · 1 L0.0wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xfea8…47aabacked Pistons50c10,560$5,280 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,2801520%3 W · 12 L-1.7wins-0.11per pick31cpaid-62.6%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x4b0d…90c0backed Pistons60c10,000$6,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,0008834.1%30 W · 58 L-2.4wins-0.03per pick37cpaid-14.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xbca6…73e3backed Pistons59c10,000$5,900 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,899.9920%0 W · 2 L-0.6wins-0.31per pick31cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x5798…ab44backed Magic46c10,000$4,600 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,399.8715740.8%64 W · 93 L-2.1wins-0.01per pick42cpaid-4%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x8ccc…f2dabacked Pistons38c9,876$3,787 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,787.415064%32 W · 18 L+1.4wins+0.03per pick61cpaid+0.3%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd48a…6e90backed Magic47c9,872$4,640 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,231.911,91054.3%1,038 W · 872 L+25.2wins+0.01per pick53cpaid+1.7%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x5db5…1a50backed Pistons54c9,004$4,862 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,8624845.8%22 W · 26 L-0.5wins-0.01per pick47cpaid-10.7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf68a…5b1bbacked Magic48c9,000$4,320 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,6802,15351.3%1,105 W · 1,048 L+76.7wins+0.04per pick48cpaid+6.9%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x479e…91c3backed Magic63c8,958$5,672 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,285.4414766%97 W · 50 L+5.2wins+0.04per pick62cpaid+4%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x779a…b689backed Pistons26c8,501$2,236 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,235.717852.6%41 W · 37 L+4.3wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+22.9%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0xa07d…9871backed Pistons59c8,000$4,720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,719.9522846.1%105 W · 123 L-6.0wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-11.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0xbce9…03e9backed Pistons0c7,900$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.68820%0 W · 882 L-6.7wins-0.01per pick1cpaid-100%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x62fb…4d60backed Magic38c7,785$2,963 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,822.4235547.3%168 W · 187 L+6.1wins+0.02per pick46cpaid+4.5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0x7202…e51abacked Pistons60c7,723$4,648 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,648.132147.6%10 W · 11 L-0.1wins0.00per pick48cpaid-4.4%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6447…8075backed Pistons56c7,708$4,317 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,316.562157.1%12 W · 9 L+1.2wins+0.06per pick51cpaid+18.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xf679…16acbacked Pistons39c7,472$2,914 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,913.9610743%46 W · 61 L-3.2wins-0.03per pick46cpaid-18%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x2a59…9a2fbacked Pistons62c7,408$4,593 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,592.8416863.1%106 W · 62 L+2.8wins+0.02per pick61cpaid+1.8%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0xc371…1e28backed Pistons24c7,379$1,803 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,803.0142335.9%152 W · 271 L-6.5wins-0.02per pick37cpaid-14.7%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0x5ac2…29f9backed Pistons54c7,367$3,978 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,977.99366.7%2 W · 1 L+0.5wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+53.6%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xc94a…9401backed Magic39c7,340$2,862 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,477.1240350.1%202 W · 201 L-3.6wins-0.01per pick51cpaid-1.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xf732…7c06backed Pistons60c7,300$4,380 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,380425%1 W · 3 L-0.9wins-0.21per pick47cpaid-56.9%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.