TailMyPicks

Check any Polymarket wallet’s real record.

NBA · resolved market

Duncan Robinson: Assists O/U 2.5

Rebuilt .

Winning outcome
Noof Yes, No
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$7,110
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$8,477

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $7,110 — the venue’s figure.

Open this market on Polymarket

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

All 18 wallets that hold a qualified pick on this market, biggest position first. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xc249…8a61backed No53c1,752$934 inWon+$818.6779650.9%405 W · 391 L+63.2wins+0.08per pick43cpaid+21.3%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x339a…1eaebacked Yes28c1,046$288 inLost-$288.411,75961.7%1,085 W · 674 L+127.5wins+0.07per pick54cpaid+12.7%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xd529…f0d4backed Yes46c1,017$464 inLost-$463.711,08563.6%690 W · 395 L+86.7wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+13%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xa5aa…9134backed No77c955.9$740 inWon+$215.4119957.8%115 W · 84 L+18.2wins+0.09per pick49cpaid+19.1%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0xf86c…ba99backed No61c397.9$244 inWon+$154.2714560.7%88 W · 57 L0.0wins0.00per pick61cpaid-3.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x373a…f4c1backed No76c320.76$245 inWon+$75.8590863.9%580 W · 328 L+80.6wins+0.09per pick55cpaid+20.4%equal weight60+0.09 edge/pick
0xcd0f…2783backed Yes23c265.81$61 inLost-$61.0430%0 W · 3 L-0.8wins-0.28per pick28cpaid-100%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe768…b331backed No77c200$154 inWon+$4639864.3%256 W · 142 L+33.7wins+0.08per pick56cpaid+12.7%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x2bef…3afdbacked Yes35c185.26$65 inLost-$64.845650%28 W · 28 L0.0wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x5cdf…8666backed Yes11c160$18 inLost-$17.613837.7%52 W · 86 L+5.6wins+0.04per pick34cpaid-3.8%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xdd94…3ef7backed Yes23c157.58$36 inLost-$36.24616.7%1 W · 5 L-0.8wins-0.13per pick29cpaid-50.6%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x79b4…c59fbacked No64c144.56$92 inWon+$52.347569.3%52 W · 23 L+8.4wins+0.11per pick58cpaid+17.4%equal weight59+0.08 edge/pick
0x22a4…63ebbacked Yes29c105.52$31 inLost-$30.692058%534 W · 386 L+10.4wins+0.01per pick57cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x133a…f9d1backed Yes28c75$21 inLost-$2195260.2%573 W · 379 L+37.0wins+0.04per pick56cpaid+6.5%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x6ae4…7c46backed Yes48c51.1$25 inLost-$24.5333653.9%181 W · 155 L+13.4wins+0.04per pick50cpaid+5.4%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0x9bd9…084fbacked No62c30$19 inWon+$11.437753.8%203 W · 174 L+12.0wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+3.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xabdd…2d96backed No77c20$15 inWon+$4.660267.3%405 W · 197 L+46.2wins+0.08per pick60cpaid+11.4%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xcfb0…b6f5backed No71c19.65$14 inWon+$5.72462.5%15 W · 9 L+1.0wins+0.04per pick58cpaid-0.8%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.