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NBA · resolved market

Spread: Pistons (-3.5)

Rebuilt .

What this market resolved to

Winning outcome
Magicof Pistons, Magic
Resolved
US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
Scored in
NBAevery record on this page is that Category’s
Volume Polymarket published
$238,655
Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
$236,491

Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $238,655 the venue’s figure.

Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.

Who was on this market

The 100 largest positions, of 214 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in NBA is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.

On this marketThis wallet’s whole record in NBA
WalletEntryPositionResultP/L heldQualified picksWin ratevs expectedRealizable edgeAvg entryROI per pickTail Score
0xbddf…c684backed Pistons43c20,735$8,960 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$8,960.0672648.3%351 W · 375 L+30.5wins+0.04per pick44cpaid+11%equal weight55+0.04 edge/pick
0x2c86…d939backed Pistons47c14,420$6,777 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$6,777.45655.4%31 W · 25 L+4.4wins+0.08per pick47cpaid+9.8%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x162b…3d49backed Magic50c11,024$5,512 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$5,512.095947.5%28 W · 31 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-6.3%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x32f1…c96ebacked Pistons50c10,000$5,000 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$5,00011757.3%67 W · 50 L+9.6wins+0.08per pick49cpaid+21.3%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0xf519…906bbacked Pistons48c10,000$4,800 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,8004753.2%25 W · 22 L+2.7wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+66.2%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xacb2…b989backed Pistons50c9,985$4,992 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,992.4349244.3%218 W · 274 L+11.8wins+0.02per pick42cpaid+6%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xee61…debfbacked Pistons47c8,642$4,094 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4,094.399,72249.4%4,805 W · 4,917 L-2.8wins0.00per pick49cpaid-0.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd106…c79cbacked Magic53c8,547$4,519 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$4,027.54,78150.5%2,414 W · 2,367 L+20.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid+0.3%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x4df3…788fbacked Pistons46c8,112$3,721 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$3,720.556,21350.6%3,142 W · 3,071 L+53.8wins+0.01per pick50cpaid+1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x27f7…44b0backed Magic52c7,076$3,690 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,386.2337355%205 W · 168 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick53cpaid+5%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xbb6f…2653backed Magic50c6,000$3,000 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$3,00016249.4%80 W · 82 L-0.3wins0.00per pick50cpaid-0.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x144e…eca0backed Magic50c5,656$2,828 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,8287451.4%38 W · 36 L+1.5wins+0.02per pick49cpaid+3.5%equal weight52+0.01 edge/pick
0x6323…9feebacked Magic50c5,586$2,793 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,793.1714441%59 W · 85 L-12.8wins-0.09per pick50cpaid-15.9%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0xead1…c76abacked Magic55c5,133$2,836 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$2,297.172,04548.4%990 W · 1,055 L-30.3wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-3.4%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xe458…7abebacked Pistons48c4,720$2,266 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,265.74666.7%4 W · 2 L+1.0wins+0.17per pick49cpaid+35.5%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0xa996…8aacbacked Pistons50c4,528$2,264 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$2,263.8314243%61 W · 81 L-1.6wins-0.01per pick44cpaid-7%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x32ed…f960backed Pistons35c4,120$1,439 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,438.952,94951.5%1,519 W · 1,430 L+119.4wins+0.04per pick47cpaid+3.7%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xe0db…f44ebacked Pistons43c4,000$1,720 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,719.9979549.7%395 W · 400 L-0.8wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x1e77…8c33backed Magic56c3,827$2,143 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,684.0515952.8%84 W · 75 L+1.5wins+0.01per pick52cpaid+3.5%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x86fb…03d4backed Magic56c3,714$2,072 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,641.9490650.2%455 W · 451 L-0.6wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x32cc…68b3backed Magic55c3,597$1,980 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,617.221,08450%542 W · 542 L+2.7wins0.00per pick50cpaid-2.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xae82…faf0backed Magic51c3,058$1,559 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,498.3115849.4%78 W · 80 L-3.5wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x617b…a499backed Magic50c3,000$1,500 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,50087750.2%440 W · 437 L-19.7wins-0.02per pick52cpaid-5.2%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2005…75eabacked Pistons8c2,901$243 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$242.642,63036.7%966 W · 1,664 L-119.1wins-0.05per pick41cpaid-25.5%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0xa697…59d5backed Pistons46c2,884$1,332 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$1,331.771,90148.7%925 W · 976 L+6.5wins0.00per pick48cpaid+0.8%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x6814…a9e7backed Pistons39c2,298$897 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$897.313,66841.9%1,538 W · 2,130 L-70.7wins-0.02per pick44cpaid-15.7%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x0d13…92f3backed Magic50c2,221$1,111 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1,110.6270246.4%326 W · 376 L-20.4wins-0.03per pick49cpaid-6.1%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe907…cff6backed Magic65c2,081$1,359 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$722.0784443%363 W · 481 L-40.5wins-0.05per pick48cpaid-17.8%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0x4488…e319backed Pistons49c2,000$980 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$98069149.1%339 W · 352 L-8.6wins-0.01per pick50cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xde04…fa37backed Pistons8c1,950$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$157.122,16940.8%885 W · 1,284 L-8.7wins0.00per pick41cpaid-14.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xc463…9a2fbacked Magic50c1,940$970 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$97031046.8%145 W · 165 L+1.5wins0.00per pick46cpaid-1.5%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xd705…fb7cbacked Pistons35c1,912$677 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$677.025234.6%18 W · 34 L-1.5wins-0.03per pick38cpaid-16.9%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6832…831fbacked Pistons3c1,809$53 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$53.3219246.4%89 W · 103 L+8.2wins+0.04per pick42cpaid-10.3%equal weight54+0.04 edge/pick
0xfb51…082dbacked Magic55c1,647$898 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$748.7358953.7%316 W · 273 L+15.8wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x204f…5e14backed Pistons26c1,581$405 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$405.258,98847.5%4,268 W · 4,720 L+96.4wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-5.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x8ddc…9c0fbacked Magic50c1,426$713 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$712.931353.8%7 W · 6 L+0.6wins+0.05per pick49cpaid+7.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xafaf…1635backed Pistons29c1,286$373 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$372.781,03647.6%493 W · 543 L+6.7wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x0e40…cf85backed Pistons44c1,250$550 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$55016745.5%76 W · 91 L+0.2wins0.00per pick45cpaid+0.9%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x57e5…e51ebacked Pistons51c1,179$601 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$601.4333360.4%201 W · 132 L+17.6wins+0.05per pick55cpaid+8.8%equal weight55+0.05 edge/pick
0x46fb…2b75backed Pistons49c1,090$532 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$531.518348.2%40 W · 43 L+0.3wins0.00per pick48cpaid-0.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x3f97…4059backed Magic49c1,015$497 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$517.655143.1%22 W · 29 L-4.2wins-0.08per pick51cpaid-19.6%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0x7ea5…de7bbacked Pistons49c1,000$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$489.722,34648.7%1,142 W · 1,204 L-14.3wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-2.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x002d…2561backed Pistons49c1,000$490 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$4901250%6 W · 6 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick49cpaid+4.7%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x8e43…5a67backed Pistons50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$500837.5%3 W · 5 L+0.1wins+0.01per pick37cpaid+27.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x06cd…2a26backed Pistons48c1,000$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480475%3 W · 1 L+1.0wins+0.25per pick50cpaid+49.4%equal weight54+0.03 edge/pick
0x6e44…1953backed Pistons48c1,000$480 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$480333.3%1 W · 2 L-0.5wins-0.17per pick51cpaid-36%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xe20d…f054backed Pistons50c1,000$500 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$50010%0 W · 1 L-0.5wins-0.50per pick50cpaid-100%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x6919…7b24backed Pistons51c970.6$495 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$495.0110045%45 W · 55 L-6.1wins-0.06per pick51cpaid-12.1%equal weight45-0.05 edge/pick
0xd809…6542backed Magic52c929.05$484 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$445.471654.1%387 W · 329 L+21.1wins+0.03per pick51cpaid+2.6%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x791e…9bdabacked Magic54c900.37$486 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$414.1717247.7%82 W · 90 L-6.1wins-0.04per pick51cpaid-1.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xba67…4727backed Pistons43c859$369 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$369.3756843.8%249 W · 319 L-25.1wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-8.4%equal weight45-0.04 edge/pick
0x5bca…0d11backed Magic51c830.25$427 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$403.6710252.9%54 W · 48 L+6.5wins+0.06per pick47cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.05 edge/pick
0x8ec4…b8e5backed Pistons49c800.07$392 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$392.03650%3 W · 3 L-0.3wins-0.04per pick54cpaid-8.1%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xd01f…8404backed Pistons49c793$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.571145.5%5 W · 6 L-0.5wins-0.04per pick50cpaid-13.6%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xf02f…1ed8backed Pistons49c779.14$384 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$383.881,43347.2%676 W · 757 L-12.8wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-2.5%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x7248…8cb4backed Pistons50c777.1$389 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$388.558948.3%43 W · 46 L+3.3wins+0.04per pick45cpaid+1.1%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x6d3c…d294backed Pistons46c642$295 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$295.164,32547%2,031 W · 2,294 L-69.5wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x61e0…4b62backed Pistons51c570.94$291 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$291.1852760%316 W · 211 L+9.8wins+0.02per pick58cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xa42c…b22ebacked Magic53c551.46$292 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$259.912752.8%67 W · 60 L+0.5wins0.00per pick52cpaid-4.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x0258…06d0backed Pistons32c539.25$173 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$172.5611033.6%37 W · 73 L-3.9wins-0.04per pick37cpaid-29.5%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe156…134bbacked Magic54c535.79$289 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$246.4611235.7%40 W · 72 L-2.7wins-0.02per pick38cpaid-17.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x01c7…e995backed Pistons46c493.94$227 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$227.243,90247.8%1,864 W · 2,038 L-17.9wins0.00per pick48cpaid-1.1%equal weight490.00 edge/pick
0x2302…d6d2backed Pistons50c492.91$246 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$245.561,28650.8%653 W · 633 L+11.2wins+0.01per pick50cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x986c…dbc6backed Magic54c479$259 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$220.3447651.7%246 W · 230 L-6.4wins-0.01per pick53cpaid-3.8%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0xbe02…5fb3backed Magic51c476.03$243 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$233.3842352.5%222 W · 201 L+5.4wins+0.01per pick51cpaid-1.6%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x556c…93cebacked Magic49c439.73$215 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$224.2624949%122 W · 127 L+2.6wins+0.01per pick48cpaid+2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xc1b5…c8f8backed Magic57c427.28$244 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$183.7339552.2%206 W · 189 L+2.4wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-0.4%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x2373…a1f3backed Magic57c421.94$241 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$180.7456447.9%270 W · 294 L-2.9wins-0.01per pick48cpaid-5.9%equal weight49-0.01 edge/pick
0x1015…c873backed Magic51c421.31$216 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$205.4762744.5%279 W · 348 L-12.1wins-0.02per pick46cpaid-9.1%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x18ff…1721backed Magic51c414.45$211 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$203.081656.3%9 W · 7 L+1.0wins+0.06per pick50cpaid+10.9%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0xf6a3…1259backed Pistons50c414.19$207 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$207.11435.7%5 W · 9 L-2.1wins-0.15per pick51cpaid-30.4%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0xbcd7…eac9backed Pistons47c387.28$182 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$182.025440.7%22 W · 32 L-4.0wins-0.07per pick48cpaid-16.3%equal weight44-0.05 edge/pick
0x6569…7600backed Magic50c384.36$194 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$190.2922047.3%104 W · 116 L-6.1wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-7.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x1b0c…0f28backed Pistons50c355.02$178 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$177.511442.9%6 W · 8 L-1.0wins-0.07per pick50cpaid-15.8%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0x580f…c80cbacked Magic51c350.39$179 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$171.691471.4%10 W · 4 L+2.8wins+0.20per pick52cpaid+36.8%equal weight58+0.07 edge/pick
0x5a5c…0fc2backed Magic59c341.39$201 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$139.9710255.9%57 W · 45 L+2.9wins+0.03per pick53cpaid+5.1%equal weight53+0.02 edge/pick
0x07d0…1310backed Magic50c330.93$166 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$1657153.5%38 W · 33 L+0.9wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-3%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x1968…8c66backed Magic50c324.89$163 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$162.253135.5%11 W · 20 L-4.2wins-0.14per pick49cpaid-36.3%equal weight42-0.08 edge/pick
0x91ff…edfdbacked Pistons45c320.31$145 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$145.0916948.5%82 W · 87 L-6.9wins-0.04per pick53cpaid-9.3%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0xdbb9…ed8dbacked Pistons50c315.93$157 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$156.872,73646.7%1,277 W · 1,459 L-67.4wins-0.02per pick49cpaid-4.9%equal weight47-0.02 edge/pick
0x7c8a…02acbacked Magic59c308.06$181 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$127.211346%52 W · 61 L-8.1wins-0.07per pick53cpaid-20.5%equal weight44-0.06 edge/pick
0xa877…2e20backed Pistons48c302.88$147 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$146.7249852.6%262 W · 236 L+15.9wins+0.03per pick49cpaid+5.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0xd1c4…c44ebacked Pistons47c289.23$136 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$135.94742.9%3 W · 4 L-0.7wins-0.10per pick52cpaid-26.4%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x2ac8…9e67backed Magic50c281.3$141 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$140.6518543.2%80 W · 105 L-7.9wins-0.04per pick48cpaid-10.1%equal weight46-0.04 edge/pick
0x2db1…45e5backed Magic50c271.6$136 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$135.824849.6%123 W · 125 L+0.1wins0.00per pick50cpaid-1.1%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0x30db…44e1backed Magic54c237.68$128 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$109.7134953%185 W · 164 L+3.8wins+0.01per pick52cpaid-2.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0xe401…7b88backed Pistons47c209.09$98 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$985,84446.7%2,728 W · 3,116 L+32.7wins+0.01per pick46cpaid-3.1%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x42f2…fdb4backed Pistons48c201.83$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$96.8811558.3%67 W · 48 L+8.0wins+0.07per pick51cpaid+13.1%equal weight56+0.06 edge/pick
0x1e3b…e232backed Pistons47c199.04$93 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$93.1193543.6%408 W · 527 L-32.6wins-0.03per pick47cpaid-11.8%equal weight46-0.03 edge/pick
0x7c67…a0e0backed Magic50c194$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$9729646.6%138 W · 158 L+0.2wins0.00per pick47cpaid-1.6%equal weight500.00 edge/pick
0xb5bd…b891backed Magic51c190.81$98 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$92.5829849.3%147 W · 151 L-5.7wins-0.02per pick51cpaid-6.6%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0xdb69…c773backed Pistons51c190.31$97 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$97.0613148.9%64 W · 67 L-4.3wins-0.03per pick52cpaid-6.2%equal weight47-0.03 edge/pick
0xe6a3…04bebacked Magic50c189.69$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$94.8535052.6%184 W · 166 L+6.0wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+1.4%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xd51e…ac0cbacked Magic50c188.61$95 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.4551647.5%245 W · 271 L-7.7wins-0.01per pick49cpaid-10%equal weight48-0.01 edge/pick
0xa59f…2e59backed Pistons10c187.5$19 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$18.751811.1%2 W · 16 L-4.4wins-0.24per pick36cpaid-79.8%equal weight39-0.10 edge/pick
0x8098…5646backed Magic50c186.04$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$93.0241753.2%222 W · 195 L+8.4wins+0.02per pick51cpaid+2.7%equal weight52+0.02 edge/pick
0xce06…c99dbacked Pistons51c184.49$94 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$94.097047.1%33 W · 37 L-1.8wins-0.03per pick50cpaid-12.5%equal weight48-0.02 edge/pick
0x299f…2140backed Pistons40c173.77$70 inLost — open this pick on its own page-$69.511,14148%548 W · 593 L+9.0wins+0.01per pick47cpaid-1.9%equal weight51+0.01 edge/pick
0x7096…7f78backed Magic54c172.38$93 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$79.0365349.9%326 W · 327 L+20.2wins+0.03per pick47cpaid+0.5%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick
0x948b…a188backed Magic57c170.95$97 inWon — open this pick on its own page+$73.5461151.4%314 W · 297 L+17.9wins+0.03per pick48cpaid+4.8%equal weight53+0.03 edge/pick

Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in NBA and say nothing about this market.

The rest of this event

Polymarket sells these questions together. 31 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.

Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.

TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.

  • The market traded at least $500.
  • The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
  • The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
  • The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.

Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.