Weather · resolved market
Will there be 16–18 inches of snow in NYC this weekend?
https://tailmypicks.com/m/0x00c2b79948cc4d65abd92dfe4342f87571d5963688805103a0add9c2adb47ff9
Rebuilt .
What this market resolved to
- Winning outcome
- Noof Yes, No
- Resolved
- US/Eastern, the zone Polymarket writes its markets in
- Scored in
- Weatherevery record on this page is that Category’s
- Volume Polymarket published
- $172,236
- Volume TailMyPicks’s own read summed
- $91,424
Both are shown because TailMyPicks only trusts a market it can reconcile: it reads every trade itself and compares its own total against the venue’s before scoring anything. The threshold below was applied to $172,236 — the venue’s figure.
Every figure here describes what TailMyPicks scored — positions held to resolution in markets that cleared the thresholds below. It is not a Polymarket account balance, and open positions are not counted anywhere on this site.
Who was on this market
The 100 largest positions, of 117 wallets holding a qualified pick here — biggest first. This page details 100 at most, and the number beside it is the real one. Ordered by position size rather than by score, because this is a post-mortem of one market — a strong wallet’s small pick does not belong above a large committed one. Each wallet’s record in Weather is on its own row, so one correct call here is not mistaken for a track record.
| On this market | This wallet’s whole record in Weather | ||||||||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallet | Entry | Position | Result | P/L held | Qualified picks | Win rate | vs expected | Realizable edge | Avg entry | ROI per pick | Tail Score |
| 0x0873…09e8backed Yes | 0c | 20,141$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.14 | 4 | 0%0 W · 4 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xee67…67a6backed Yes | 1c | 13,971$86 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$86.3 | 23 | 4.3%1 W · 22 L | +0.5wins | +0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -70.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xf720…4599backed Yes | 5c | 9,625$483 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$482.87 | 28 | 39.3%11 W · 17 L | +2.1wins | +0.07per pick | 32cpaid | +82.8%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x0da7…ca6cbacked Yes | 0c | 8,253$40 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$39.51 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.15per pick | 40cpaid | -61.7%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x5822…06eebacked Yes | 0c | 7,587$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x8583…2e16backed Yes | 3c | 4,777$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146.27 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.6wins | +0.19per pick | 14cpaid | +19%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4c3d…bd93backed Yes | 0c | 2,974$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 0cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4266…0e08backed Yes | 28c | 2,877$792 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$792.08 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | +2.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x4c90…cd7bbacked Yes | 5c | 2,723$131 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$131.17 | 45 | 48.9%22 W · 23 L | +4.9wins | +0.11per pick | 38cpaid | +5.4%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0x56a8…3639backed Yes | 23c | 2,443$550 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$549.79 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.3wins | -0.05per pick | 25cpaid | -5.2%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x3a08…f99ebacked Yes | 15c | 2,424$359 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$358.74 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.1wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xabfb…12e5backed Yes | 5c | 2,218$112 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$112.07 | 328 | 18.3%60 W · 268 L | +15.8wins | +0.05per pick | 13cpaid | -10.6%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1953…5170backed Yes | 2c | 2,178$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$47.12 | 9 | 22.2%2 W · 7 L | +0.3wins | +0.04per pick | 18cpaid | -19.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab72…b70dbacked Yes | 17c | 2,052$353 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$352.85 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.2wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -28.3%equal weight | 510.00 edge/pick |
| 0x43cb…84dfbacked Yes | 4c | 1,775$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.97 | 6,787 | 39.1%2,654 W · 4,133 L | +256.4wins | +0.04per pick | 35cpaid | -20.1%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8765…ed81backed Yes | 3c | 1,441$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.48 | 398 | 10.8%43 W · 355 L | +0.8wins | 0.00per pick | 11cpaid | -30.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x3ade…ac2bbacked Yes | 10c | 1,430$146 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$146 | 6 | 16.7%1 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 19cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0b2d…be6cbacked Yes | 26c | 1,271$333 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$333.47 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.1wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | +11.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x2779…62dfbacked Yes | 1c | 1,230$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.04 | 251 | 19.9%50 W · 201 L | -6.6wins | -0.03per pick | 23cpaid | -29%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xd035…f165backed Yes | 6c | 1,037$63 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$62.75 | 590 | 21.7%128 W · 462 L | -24.2wins | -0.04per pick | 26cpaid | -40.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc8ab…6418backed Yes | 26c | 999.99$256 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$256 | 1,322 | 32.2%426 W · 896 L | -43.7wins | -0.03per pick | 36cpaid | -14.8%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x8212…5933backed Yes | 3c | 871.61$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +2.0wins | +0.25per pick | 25cpaid | +71.8%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4b55…076fbacked Yes | 28c | 829.39$235 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$235.05 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.06per pick | 19cpaid | +42.5%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x14d7…db87backed No | 64c | 781.49$500 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$281.49 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | -0.8wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -23.8%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0b91…ae77backed Yes | 16c | 772.95$121 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$120.73 | 9 | 44.4%4 W · 5 L | +1.4wins | +0.16per pick | 29cpaid | +40.9%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xc740…522fbacked No | 78c | 750$587 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$163 | 4 | 75%3 W · 1 L | +0.9wins | +0.21per pick | 54cpaid | +34.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x37ea…f395backed Yes | 3c | 624.04$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.04 | 22 | 18.2%4 W · 18 L | +1.6wins | +0.07per pick | 11cpaid | +124.7%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x3c11…9b33backed Yes | 14c | 615.76$85 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$85.33 | 6 | 50%3 W · 3 L | +0.8wins | +0.13per pick | 37cpaid | +40.7%equal weight | 53+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3e49…ae9dbacked Yes | 32c | 592.74$187 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$187.25 | 9 | 11.1%1 W · 8 L | -0.8wins | -0.09per pick | 20cpaid | +14.9%equal weight | 47-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x453a…fdb8backed Yes | 2c | 570.64$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.47 | 5 | 0%0 W · 5 L | -0.1wins | -0.02per pick | 2cpaid | -100%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xb7da…e4bbbacked Yes | 4c | 467.29$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20.43 | 8 | 12.5%1 W · 7 L | -0.7wins | -0.09per pick | 22cpaid | -83.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x769d…05bfbacked Yes | 31c | 464.92$145 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$144.74 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | +0.5wins | +0.08per pick | 25cpaid | +29.1%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x1b26…cfc5backed Yes | 11c | 464.86$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | -0.6wins | -0.12per pick | 32cpaid | -47.9%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xf924…435bbacked No | 76c | 412.9$316 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$97.15 | 6 | 33.3%2 W · 4 L | -1.6wins | -0.27per pick | 61cpaid | -52.2%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x9fee…9589backed Yes | 4c | 400$17 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$17.4 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 29cpaid | -37.1%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x16fa…6d0dbacked Yes | 8c | 396.66$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 24 | 37.5%9 W · 15 L | +0.7wins | +0.03per pick | 35cpaid | -1.7%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe085…cd9abacked Yes | 26c | 390.22$100 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$100 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.30per pick | 30cpaid | -100%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4453…dd3bbacked Yes | 33c | 383.36$126 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$126 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.5wins | -0.13per pick | 38cpaid | -64.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe445…8750backed Yes | 14c | 333.56$47 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.7 | 23 | 21.7%5 W · 18 L | -5.8wins | -0.25per pick | 47cpaid | -55.2%equal weight | 37-0.12 edge/pick |
| 0xd8fd…4d36backed No | 61c | 332.98$203 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$129.86 | 9 | 55.6%5 W · 4 L | +1.4wins | +0.15per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 55+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x1ab9…8ba6backed No | 73c | 318.98$232 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$87.43 | 304 | 42.8%130 W · 174 L | +8.5wins | +0.03per pick | 40cpaid | +1.2%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x2892…71ddbacked Yes | 19c | 308.33$58 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$58.15 | 11 | 63.6%7 W · 4 L | +2.6wins | +0.23per pick | 40cpaid | +44.6%equal weight | 58+0.07 edge/pick |
| 0xc372…3b5cbacked No | 76c | 300$228 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$72 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | -0.5wins | -0.27per pick | 77cpaid | -34.2%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa58d…b9b8backed No | 77c | 300$231 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$69 | 64 | 40.6%26 W · 38 L | +5.6wins | +0.09per pick | 32cpaid | +56.5%equal weight | 57+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0xb835…683bbacked Yes | 36c | 299.99$108 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$108 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.4wins | -0.36per pick | 36cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x0f81…d260backed Yes | 7c | 299.99$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21.5 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | 0.0wins | 0.00per pick | 50cpaid | -19.9%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc0b6…90a8backed Yes | 6c | 261.35$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 30cpaid | -34.8%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xff26…9f77backed Yes | 20c | 250$50 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$50 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x687d…e28bbacked Yes | 19c | 243.36$46 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$46.24 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.6wins | +0.08per pick | 42cpaid | +21%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xa769…6561backed Yes | 8c | 230.1$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.26 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | +0.1wins | +0.04per pick | 30cpaid | +63%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xd6ee…37a2backed Yes | 11c | 223.41$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.41 | 1,592 | 30.8%491 W · 1,101 L | -6.4wins | 0.00per pick | 31cpaid | -24.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf4e9…a5afbacked No | 74c | 197.36$146 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$51.31 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 47cpaid | -32.4%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0x0327…5e15backed Yes | 31c | 197.24$61 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$60.75 | 8 | 0%0 W · 8 L | -3.1wins | -0.39per pick | 39cpaid | -100%equal weight | 39-0.09 edge/pick |
| 0x77b5…9170backed No | 76c | 187.96$142 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.58 | 3,175 | 62.7%1,992 W · 1,183 L | +12.6wins | 0.00per pick | 62cpaid | -1.6%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xa9ea…7d1ebacked Yes | 14c | 171.74$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.22 | 5 | 20%1 W · 4 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 16cpaid | +7.8%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x89b4…55bcbacked Yes | 18c | 169.99$31 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$31.15 | 930 | 34%316 W · 614 L | +53.0wins | +0.06per pick | 28cpaid | +13.2%equal weight | 56+0.06 edge/pick |
| 0x4959…a6f5backed No | 71c | 166.08$118 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$47.94 | 847 | 59.4%503 W · 344 L | +41.6wins | +0.05per pick | 54cpaid | +5.2%equal weight | 55+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x3078…0389backed Yes | 25c | 157.4$39 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.68 | 158 | 18.4%29 W · 129 L | -8.4wins | -0.05per pick | 24cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 45-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x5c55…8e08backed No | 70c | 151.22$106 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$45.37 | 1 | 100%1 W · 0 L | +0.3wins | +0.30per pick | 70cpaid | +42.9%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xefb7…3647backed Yes | 17c | 149.54$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24.87 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | +0.2wins | +0.04per pick | 21cpaid | +28.7%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb8be…834bbacked Yes | 26c | 149.44$38 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$38.5 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.26per pick | 26cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xab7b…f350backed Yes | 9c | 139.67$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.8wins | +0.39per pick | 11cpaid | +271.3%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x0115…be3fbacked Yes | 15c | 135.27$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.86 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.20per pick | 20cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xb3d7…3377backed No | 75c | 125.53$94 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$31.59 | 20 | 40%8 W · 12 L | -1.5wins | -0.08per pick | 48cpaid | -33.7%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xbb51…f32cbacked Yes | 16c | 109.85$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18.12 | 3 | 33.3%1 W · 2 L | -0.2wins | -0.08per pick | 41cpaid | -6%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9961…adcbbacked Yes | 28c | 103.57$29 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$29 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.6wins | -0.16per pick | 41cpaid | -61.1%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x25c2…08c7backed Yes | 13c | 102.7$13 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.35 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.1wins | +0.03per pick | 37cpaid | +0.7%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xf82a…7c35backed No | 78c | 100.41$79 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.78 | 10 | 50%5 W · 5 L | -1.3wins | -0.13per pick | 63cpaid | -28.8%equal weight | 46-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x5998…f89cbacked Yes | 18c | 100$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.18per pick | 18cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x1448…b30bbacked Yes | 25c | 100$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.25per pick | 25cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xb28b…3d9bbacked Yes | 26c | 100$26 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25.7 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | +0.1wins | +0.02per pick | 12cpaid | -37.2%equal weight | 500.00 edge/pick |
| 0xc020…cd5ebacked Yes | 11c | 100$11 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$11.4 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.4wins | +0.19per pick | 31cpaid | +0.2%equal weight | 52+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xe4dd…442fbacked Yes | 34c | 99.99$34 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$34 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.34per pick | 34cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xad53…ef24backed Yes | 19c | 99.99$19 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$19.31 | 437 | 13.3%58 W · 379 L | -78.8wins | -0.18per pick | 31cpaid | -63.2%equal weight | 31-0.17 edge/pick |
| 0x731f…6d78backed Yes | 15c | 98.38$15 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$15 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.2wins | -0.15per pick | 15cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xa3e2…fdf8backed No | 78c | 98$76 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$21.56 | 9,490 | 45.9%4,360 W · 5,130 L | -278.5wins | -0.03per pick | 49cpaid | -10.2%equal weight | 47-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x5c82…1f7dbacked Yes | 21c | 95.24$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 7 | 14.3%1 W · 6 L | -0.2wins | -0.02per pick | 17cpaid | -16%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x73b1…d607backed Yes | 32c | 92.42$30 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$30 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.4wins | -0.19per pick | 19cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6b4c…efa9backed Yes | 27c | 91.87$25 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$25 | 122 | 30.3%37 W · 85 L | -11.5wins | -0.09per pick | 40cpaid | -22.6%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x500c…3d32backed Yes | 22c | 82.27$18 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$18 | 4 | 50%2 W · 2 L | +0.9wins | +0.22per pick | 28cpaid | +43.7%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0xd781…aebdbacked Yes | 31c | 76.36$24 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$24 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.31per pick | 31cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x6978…08d8backed Yes | 30c | 70$21 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$21 | 4 | 25%1 W · 3 L | -0.9wins | -0.24per pick | 49cpaid | -68.2%equal weight | 46-0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4059…3371backed Yes | 20c | 69.33$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.87 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 33cpaid | +128.6%equal weight | 54+0.04 edge/pick |
| 0x8a34…35d0backed Yes | 29c | 67.82$20 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$20 | 5 | 40%2 W · 3 L | +0.6wins | +0.11per pick | 29cpaid | +95.3%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xe92c…f913backed No | 78c | 63.83$50 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.83 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +0.2wins | +0.05per pick | 61cpaid | -7.4%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x8044…ac75backed Yes | 28c | 58.75$16 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$16.45 | 2 | 0%0 W · 2 L | -0.6wins | -0.29per pick | 29cpaid | -100%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x72a8…c016backed No | 74c | 52.64$39 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$13.69 | 14 | 35.7%5 W · 9 L | -0.8wins | -0.06per pick | 41cpaid | -30.6%equal weight | 48-0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x0888…72acbacked Yes | 28c | 50.75$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$14 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.1wins | +0.07per pick | 43cpaid | -13.2%equal weight | 51+0.01 edge/pick |
| 0xcc23…8bc9backed No | 80c | 50$40 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.25 | 6 | 83.3%5 W · 1 L | +1.6wins | +0.27per pick | 56cpaid | +48.5%equal weight | 56+0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x413d…0db8backed Yes | 27c | 50$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.5 | 8 | 50%4 W · 4 L | +0.9wins | +0.11per pick | 39cpaid | +83%equal weight | 53+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x1408…b4f8backed No | 80c | 47.99$38 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$9.65 | 1,605 | 42.9%689 W · 916 L | -86.9wins | -0.05per pick | 48cpaid | -23.6%equal weight | 44-0.05 edge/pick |
| 0x00ce…c230backed Yes | 22c | 45.5$10 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$10.01 | 3 | 0%0 W · 3 L | -1.2wins | -0.41per pick | 41cpaid | -100%equal weight | 45-0.04 edge/pick |
| 0xf64c…e897backed Yes | 28c | 42.86$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 3 | 66.7%2 W · 1 L | +1.0wins | +0.33per pick | 34cpaid | +128%equal weight | 54+0.03 edge/pick |
| 0x4222…3df6backed Yes | 34c | 40.3$14 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$13.62 | 7 | 28.6%2 W · 5 L | +0.5wins | +0.07per pick | 21cpaid | +84.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x3aad…468cbacked No | 75c | 40$30 in | Won — open this pick on its own page | +$10.2 | 2 | 100%2 W · 0 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 76cpaid | +31.2%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0xafe9…98c6backed Yes | 31c | 38.36$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.24per pick | 26cpaid | +150%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
| 0x4f87…5e3dbacked Yes | 32c | 37.71$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x9311…29c1backed Yes | 32c | 37.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 1 | 0%0 W · 1 L | -0.3wins | -0.32per pick | 32cpaid | -100%equal weight | 49-0.01 edge/pick |
| 0x10e8…fdaabacked Yes | 33c | 36.53$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12 | 7 | 0%0 W · 7 L | -2.6wins | -0.37per pick | 37cpaid | -100%equal weight | 41-0.08 edge/pick |
| 0x6bfa…a28fbacked Yes | 33c | 36.5$12 in | Lost — open this pick on its own page | -$12.05 | 2 | 50%1 W · 1 L | +0.5wins | +0.25per pick | 26cpaid | +177.8%equal weight | 52+0.02 edge/pick |
Entry is the average price this wallet paid on the side it backed, so being right at 20c is distinguishable from being right at 95c. Position is what it was left holding in shares, with what it spent underneath. Result opens that one pick on a page of its own, which is the link to send somebody. P/L held is what that position would have been worth held to resolution — not cash the wallet withdrew, because selling early is still a correct forecast. The seven columns on the right describe the wallet’s whole record in Weather and say nothing about this market.
The rest of this event
Polymarket sells these questions together. 8 in all. TailMyPicks has no name for an event — the venue publishes an identifier and no title — so they are listed by their own questions.
- Will there be 16–18 inches of snow in NYC this weekend?this page
- Will there be 10–12 inches of snow in NYC this weekend?No won
- Will there be 12–14 inches of snow in NYC this weekend?No won
- Will there be 14–16 inches of snow in NYC this weekend?No won
- Will there be 18–20 inches of snow in NYC this weekend?Yes won
- Will there be 20 or more inches of snow in NYC this weekend?No won
- Will there be 8–10 inches of snow in NYC this weekend?No won
- Will there be less than 8 inches of snow in NYC this weekend?No won
Not every trade counts. A Pick has to clear four thresholds to be scored.
TailMyPicks scores a wallet on what it can actually be judged on: positions held to resolution, in markets with enough volume to be real, at prices where being right was not already priced in.
- The market traded at least $500.
- The entry price was between 0.00 and 0.80 — a near-certainty is not a call.
- The position was at least $10 — dust is not a position.
- The market has resolved, so there is a right answer to grade against.
Thresholds behind these numbers: set by an operator decision, not measured.